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The S&P 500
SPX will bottom on May 17 at 5,309 — 13.6% below its Feb. 19 all-time high. That’s if the U.S. stock-market correction that we now know began on Feb. 19 lasts as long as the median correction of the past 100 years, and declines just as much.
Of course, the current correction could morph into a major bear market if the market loses more than 20% from its high. But odds are that it won’t. Of all S&P 500 drops of at least 10% since 1928, 60% of them stopped before the market fell through the 20% threshold to satisfy the semiofficial definition of a bear market.
This post was originally published on Market Watch
