The February jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 311,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.6% from 3.4%.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected an addition of 225,000 jobs and unemployment staying at 3.4%.
See: Jobs report shows strong 311,000 gain in February, puts pressure on Fed for bigger rate hike
Below are some initial reactions from economists and other analysts, as U.S. stock futures
ES00,
SPX,
traded flat to higher following the data on nonfarm payrolls.
• “Leisure & hospitality was still solid (+105k), but there are signs here that this might be the last hurrah for strong payroll numbers, corroborated by the recent increase in claims, the decline in JOLTS, and the decline in the diffusion index. Wage growth slowed to +0.2% m/m, but because of base effects the y/y number ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%. Combined with the weakness in the details of the payroll data, this should give the Fed some comfort that perhaps they don’t need to step up the pace of hiking again, especially in the context of what is going on in the banking sector with SVB.” — Thomas Simons and Aneta Markowska, economists at Jefferies, in a note
• “Overall, this data doesn’t tip the scales on the call for 25 or 50 bps at the March FOMC, and we await next week’s CPI print as a key deciding factor in that call.” — Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, in a note
• “This puts paid to the idea that January was hugely distorted by weather patterns. The average monthly increase of 351,000 over the last three months is not much lower than the 400,000 seen over 2022 as a whole. There is some better news on the participation front — which moved up to 62.5%, helping to push up the unemployment rate to 3.6% — but if job growth stays at this pace, labor market imbalances are not going to ease.” — Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, in a note
• “The jobs data provides a huge relief for investors fearing the Fed raising rates by half a percent. While the jobs were stronger than expected at 311,000 versus 225,000 expected, earnings growth was a mild 0.2% increase and unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.6%. Even labor force participation ticked up slightly from 62.4% to 62.5%.” — Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manage and vice president at Sit Investment Associates, in a note
• “Holy smokes, another huge jobs report. …. Revisions slightly negative (-13k for Jan; -21k for Dec), but overall the economy is MOTORING.” — Justin Wolfers, economic professor at the University of Michigan, in a tweet
