Apple Inc.’s stock was downgraded to sell from neutral by LightShed analysts on Friday, citing a more conservative outlook for iPhone sales and moderating growth expectations for services revenue.
The stock
AAPL,
which has fallen 4.4% in the last 12 months, was down 1.7% after midday on Friday. The benchmark S&P 500 Index
SPX,
which is down 8.3% in the last 12 months, had slipped 1.6% on Friday.
LightShed set an Apple share-price target of $120, or about 20% below its current price. “We believe the lengthening of the smartphone replacement cycle will persist into calendar 2024,” the analysts wrote.
Related: Apple earnings show steepest sales decline in more than 6 years
LightShed noted flat to lower phone subsidies from wireless operators in 2023 and lower subsidies in fiscal 2024. The analysts also pointed to longer terms on phone-payment plans, the increased use of eSim to activate a new customer on an existing phones, no new meaningful apps to drive interest in 5G, and potential economic weakness reining in consumer spending.
“In addition, we believe there is increased risk to iPhone sales in China due to retaliation stemming from a worsening relationship between the U.S. and Chinese governments,” the analysts wrote. “As a result, our iPhone revenue estimate is $6 billion below consensus in Fiscal 2023 and $17 billion lower than consensus in [the fiscal year] 2024.”
U.S. and China relations have been worsening, as evidenced by the diplomatic row over a suspected Chinese spy balloon that was shot down off the coast of South Carolina after traversing much of the U.S., in addition to increasing bilateral tension over technologies and Taiwan.
See: Spy-balloon drama will impact U.S.-China relations. So what comes next?
Plus: Xi says U.S. is trying to hinder China in its quest for global influence
Apple’s first-fiscal-quarter earnings earlier this month showed the steepest sales decline in more than six years, with the tech giant’s iPhone revenue falling to $65.8 billion from $71.6 billion a year before. In November Apple warned that its iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max shipments would be impacted by pandemic-related production constraints at a major facility operated by supplier Foxconn in China.
Of 40 analysts surveyed by FactSet, 31 have an overweight or buy rating on Apple’s stock, while seven have a hold rating on the stock and two a sell rating.
Additional reporting by Emily Bary.
