Up 290% in 5 years, can the Barclays share price keep climbing?

In March 2020, at the height of the Covid crash, the Barclays share price (LSE: BARC) bottomed at 78p. Fast forward five years and the stock’s trebled.

Trading at levels not seen since before the global financial crisis, I feel it’s now time for me to re-evaluate whether it still deserves a place in my stocks and shares ISA.

Structural hedge

A few years ago, most investors didn’t really appreciate the importance of the structural hedge to the company’s bottom line. It certainly took me some time to get my head around its core principles.

A typical bank’s balance sheet of assets and liabilities will consist of a mix of fixed and floating interest rate products, with varying durations. As a result of mismatches in rate exposure of these different products, without some form of hedging a bank could be exposed to significant risk.

These risks can be catastrophic. When interest rates began rising in 2022, Silicon Valley Bank’s huge bet that rates would stay ultra-low indefinitely spectacularly backfired. As the value of government bonds tanked, a run on the bank resulted in a gaping hole in the balance sheet. The rest is history.

Stable source of income

In 2025, the real risk to a bank isn’t rising but falling interest rates. However, despite two rate cuts in 2024, net interest income (NII) improved slightly on 2023 to £13bn. Compared to 2022, its up 22% and today accounts for 50% of its total income.

The secret sauce is structural hedging. Fixed rate, or rate-insensitive products such as current accounts and certain savings products, are effectively swapped into a floating rate.

To effect the hedge, it uses interest rate swaps. The swaps are received at a fixed rate and pay a floating rate. As a consequence of entering into such a contract they will smooth income through the interest rate cycle and protect NII from a sharp or unexpected fall in rates.

Future cash flows

The structural hedge has undoubtedly been the biggest driver of Barclays profitability over the past couple of years. Last year it both benefited from falling rates and the fact that rates didn’t fall as much as was predicted.

As a result of the structural hedge, over the next two years it has locked in £9.1bn of gross income. But what about beyond that? Medium term, I can’t seen anything other than interest rates falling. They simply have to because interest expense on government debt is reaching crisis level. In the US, interest expense is larger than the entire defence budget.

At the moment the UK credit picture remains quite benign, and delinquencies are stable. Barclays is betting this will remain the case. I’m not so sure. To me the UK economy’s not in a healthy state.

It’s a similar story in the US. Beneath the veneer of a booming US stock market, the labour market’s weakening, the consumer’s tapping out and a cost-of-living crisis is still alive and kicking.

Despite trading at a rock bottom valuation, I’m not sure how much higher its share price can climb. For now, I remain invested for the dividend, but I certainly won’t be adding any more.

What’s going on with the BP share price in 2025?

The BP (LSE:BP) share price has been volatile in 2025, influenced by strategic shifts, geopolitical factors, and activist investor involvement. So here’s a breakdown of the key developments.

Activist pressure and a new strategy

Activist hedge fund Elliott Management acquired a significant stake in BP in early February. The group’s pushing for strategic changes to unlock shareholder value. This has led to a 6.5% surge in BP’s shares, as investors anticipate a refocus on oil and gas production, similar to Shell’s strategy.

However, BP’s already announced a fundamental reset to its strategy, slashing investments in low-carbon projects by over $5bn annually and increasing oil and gas spending to $10bn a year. The goal is to boost production to 2.3-2.5m barrels per day by 2030, targeting higher free cash flow and returns. This late February however, initially caused shares to drop, as it marked a departure from BP’s earlier green energy transition plans.

Moreover, BP plans $20bn in divestments by 2027, including a strategic review of its Castrol lubricants division. It also aims to reduce net debt to $14bn-$18bn by 2027, down from $23bn in 2024. These measures are expected to enhance shareholder value. The business has broadly lagged its peers in terms of creating shareholder value in recent years.

Geopolitics and global energy prices

The US Energy Information Administration predicts average oil prices of $74 in 2025 and $66 in 2026. This is a little lower than we’ve seen in recent years and could pressure BP’s forecasts. Inevitably, lower oil prices push stocks in the energy sector downwards.

Additionally, President Trump’s executive orders aim to boost US oil and gas production. This adds uncertainty to global energy markets with prices in a fine balance. Meanwhile, ongoing conflicts, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, continue to disrupt oil supply chains, influencing crude prices and BP’s outlook.

In other words, there’s a lot of competing factors, but the forecasts suggest oil’s getting cheaper.

An investment worth considering?

I’m relatively bullish on energy stocks in the long run. However, BP presents a mixed investment case in 2025, with its strategic reset offering both opportunities and challenges. The strategic reset, coupled with planned cost reductions of $4-5bn by 2027, could improve profitability. However, there are execution risks.

Moreover, BP’s valuation remains a sticking point. While cheaper than US majors like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, it trades in line with European peers such as Shell. Its exposure to higher European taxes and stricter regulations may limit its ability to close the valuation gap. Additionally, the downstream segment’s reliance on cost efficiency improvements could take time to show results.

Analysts forecast a modest total return of 11.9% annually through 2030. This could make BP a steady but not compelling buy at current levels. However, it’s not beating earnings estimates all that often, and the Trump presidency represents something of a wildcard.

Personally, I’m not investing in this uncertainty. Bullish investors might consider waiting for a market dip or crude price drop before adding to positions.

What’s going on with the Tesla share price now?

The Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) share price has slumped in recent months, outpacing peers amid a tech sell-off. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have both tumbled, driven by concerns over rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and overvaluation of tech stocks. However, Tesla, once a market darling, has been particularly hard-hit, with its shares plummeting 15.4% on 10 March alone. It’s now down more than 50% from its highs.

Is Musk getting distracted by DOGE?

One of the key factors behind Tesla’s decline is Elon Musk’s increasing involvement in Washington. To start, Musk’s endorsement of Donald Trump and his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have raised concerns about his focus on Tesla. Investors are wondering how he can continue to run Tesla, along with SpaceX, The Boring Company, X, and others, while trying to reduce federal spending.

What’s more, Musk’s affiliation with the current divisive administration appears to be having a negative impact on brand image. A CNN poll revealed that approximately 53% of respondents had a negative view of Musk, compared to 35% who held a positive opinion. This decline in brand perception is further evidenced by protests at Tesla showrooms and a broader consumer shift away from the brand in politically divided regions.

However, I still love my Model Y.

BYD’s market-moving news

Adding to Tesla’s woes, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD has unveiled a groundbreaking super-fast charging system. BYD’s new ‘Super E-Platform’ can charge vehicles in just five minutes, offering a range of 250 miles. That’s at least twice as fast as Tesla’s Superchargers.

This innovation, coupled with BYD’s plans to build 4,000 ultra-fast charging stations across China, has positioned the company as a formidable rival to Tesla. Remember, China is a huge market for Tesla too. BYD’s announcement sent its shares to an all-time high, while Tesla’s stock continued to slide, reflecting investor concerns about Tesla’s ability to maintain its competitive edge.

Analysts are losing their conviction

Analysts have also downgraded Tesla’s delivery forecasts, citing weak sales in key markets like China and Europe. UBS lowered its 2025 delivery estimate to 1.7m vehicles, further dampening investor sentiment. Despite Musk’s reassurances and optimism about Tesla’s long-term prospects, the company’s stock remains under pressure, with its market value now at $845bn. This is still higher than traditional automakers but increasingly questioned by investors.

Of course, Tesla doesn’t want to be seen as an automaker. It wants to be a valued as a tech company. Tesla expects to lead in autonomous driving and ride hailing, although it’s already lagging peers like Waymo. It’s also hoping to lead in robotics, but there’s very little tangible to go on.

Personally, I’d like to see Tesla succeed. Like Musk or not, the company has continually pushed the boundaries of modern technology. However, I can’t buy the stock. The valuation — 90 times forward earnings — is simply far too high. I also expect some further declines in sales.

3 reasons to avoid Greggs shares in 2025

Some of the best investors say “invest in what you know”. And lots of Britons know Greggs (LSE:GRG). I’m not saying that’s the only reason it’s been such a popular investment in recent years, but it’s certainly a relatively easy business to understand. And that could have been a contributing factor in the stock’s success. Now, some of you will know that I’m not a fan of Greggs shares, even after the recent sell-off. Simply, I think it’s overvalued and overrated as a business. So, here are my three reasons to avoid Greggs in 2025.

Still not cheap

Greggs shares remain relatively expensive despite recent fluctuations. The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.4 times is notably lower than in previous years, but still higher than the index average. What’s more, this figure indicates that the market is expecting Greggs to grow earnings at an impressive pace

However, the company’s P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.46 suggests limited future earnings growth based on analysts’ earnings projections. Given that a PEG ratio of one and under is a sign of a fair valued or undervalued stock, this figure should be a warning sign. In fact, it screams ‘overvaluation’.

What’s more, there’s some net debt to throw into the equation — almost £300m. While the company’s solid 2.5% dividend yield provides some form of shareholder returns, the broader picture indicates an overvalued stock.

Nowhere to grow

Greggs has impressed investors with earnings growth in recent years. This has been driven by strategic shop openings, a strong customer base, and a successful menu expansion. By 2024, its net sales reached £2bn, with solid EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) and net income growth. Looking ahead, Greggs aims to significantly expand its UK presence further, targeting more than 3,500 shops in the longer term. The focus will be on travel hubs, roadside locations, and increasing its presence in supermarkets.

While this offers fresh growth opportunities, particularly for on-the-go customers, I’m concerned that Greggs may be reaching saturation point. It’s already a feature on most urban highstreets. Moreover, as competition for prime retail spaces intensifies, Greggs will need to successfully tap into these new formats — travel hubs — without overextending or cannibalising existing stores. Ultimately, its growth trajectory will depend on how well it adapts to these evolving opportunities. Personally, I believe there’s a lot of execution risk here.

Better options elsewhere

My third and final reason for avoiding Greggs stock is simply because investors can find better opportunities elsewhere on the index. What’s more, there are plenty of businesses with simple business models that are often overlooked.

One of my current favourites is Jet2. The airline stock is incredibly overlooked by investors with an average share price over 50% higher than the current share price. It has a huge net cash position and, as the UK’s number one tour operator, it’s expected to grow earnings at an impressive pace.

In fact, while this isn’t a perfect comparison given they’re from different sectors, Jet2 is trading at 1.2 times EV-to-EBITDA. Greggs is at 9.2 times. In short, this is why I’ve been buying Jet2 shares, and not Greggs.

3 FTSE 250 shares with low P/E ratios and sky-high dividend yields!

The recent stock market mini-crash has provided a wealth of opportunities for value investors. On the growth-oriented FTSE 250 index of shares alone, dozens of great companies are now trading at rock-bottom prices.

Today I’m seeking the best stocks to buy with ultra-low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and enormous dividend yields. It’s a combination I think could deliver healthy capital gains as prices eventually correct, as well as the potential for a wealth-boosting passive income.

Here are three FTSE 250 bargains I think are worth serious consideration today.

Foresight Solar Fund

Renewable energy shares like Foresight Solar Fund (LSE:FSFL) can deliver disappointing returns during unfavourable weather conditions. The amount of power they have to sell can underwhelm when — in this particular case — the amount of solar radiation dips.

However, this particularly power generator has sought to mitigate this risk by placing its assets far and wide. Its solar farms traverse the length and breadth of the UK, and can also be found in the sunnier climes of Spain and Australia.

Largely speaking, I think Foresight’s a rock-solid share to buy in uncertain times. The stable nature of energy demand means revenues remain broadly constant regardless of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. Its dividends are also linked to the rate of inflation.

Speaking of which, the company’s forward dividend yield is a huge 10%. It trades on a low P/E ratio of 9.6 times as well.

B&M European Value Retail

B&M European Value Retail (LSE:BME) is another FTSE 250 share offering excellent all-round value, in my view. It’s recent slump — which saw it duck out of the FTSE 100 back in December — means it trades on a forward P/E ratio of 8.1 times.

Meanwhile, the firm’s corresponding dividend yield is a huge 8.5%.

A string of disappointing trading releases shows that not even value-focused retailers are immune to broader pressure on consumer spending power. They remain in peril as long as the UK economy struggles for traction.

Yet I think long-term investors should consider taking a look at B&M at today’s price. The value sector is still tipped by industry analysts to grow strongly over the next decade. And the business is expanding rapidly in Britain and France to capitalise on this.

ITV

It could be argued that traditional broadcasters like ITV (LSE:ITV) are on shakier ground today. As streaming companies like Netflix and Amazon‘s Prime service take over, the role of the linear television is diminishing.

Yet it’s my view that ITV could thrive in this new landscape. The steady rise of its ITVX television-on-demand platform suggests the company knows how to thrive in the digital age. With 14.3m active users, it’s been the UK’s fastest-growing streaming platform over the last two years.

On top of this, the company’s sprawling production division leaves it well placed to capitalise on the streaming sector’s thirst for content. ITV Studios — which delivered record profits last year — is on course to deliver market-beating organic revenue growth between 2021 and 2026.

Today ITV trades on a forward P/E ratio of 8.3 times, and carries an 6.7% dividend yield. I think this is exceptional value for money.

Why is Apple stock lagging the S&P 500 in 2025?

Following Nvidia stock’s recent dip, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has once again taken the crown of the S&P 500‘s largest company. This is the case even after the iPhone maker’s 9.3% year-to-date share price fall. The stock underperformed the index in the process.

Having said that, I’m sure longer-term shareholders aren’t too worried. Apple stock is still up 270% in five years, pushing the market cap well above $3trn.

For context, that’s over than 100 times larger than Nokia, the firm that Apple disrupted with the launch of the groundbreaking iPhone in 2007.

What’s going on?

There seem to be a few reasons why Apple stock has paused for a well-deserved breather in 2025.

For starters, the technology sector has suffered a sell-off in the past couple of weeks. President Trump’s on-off tariffs are causing uncertainty in the stock market, and they could even impact the firm’s earnings at some point. While these risks linger, the Apple share price is likely to be volatile.

Also, the stock is trading at 34 times earnings, which is a premium to the already pricey S&P 500. So there might be a concern about valuation here. And this was likely a factor in Warren Buffett’s decision to cut his giant stake to less than half what it was.

Finally, Apple has suffered a slowdown in iPhone sales, especially in China. This is down to increased competition and market saturation, as well delays in rolling out significant AI upgrades for its devices.

AI teething problems

This last point is worth expanding on, as some investors fear that Apple might be losing ground as we move deeper into the AI age. It has released Apple Intelligence on the new iPhone 16, but the AI-equipped version of Siri has been delayed due to glitches. This reportedly might not be out till next year now.

While this is clearly far from ideal, I think the company has time and will get this right. After all, it will take several years for all 2bn+ iOS users to upgrade to devices with advanced AI capabilities.

Apple has said its AI features will prioritise keeping data on users’ devices rather than in the cloud. This could attract users concerned about data privacy.

I suspect these are AI teething problems that will be largely forgotten about a few years from now. As a customer, it’s not a deal-breaker for me, as I’ll still be upgrading to a new Apple phone soon. I’m more than happy to be locked into the firm’s incredibly sticky ecosystem.

Will I buy the stock then?

Analysts expect revenue and earnings per share to grow 4.6% and 8.6% respectively this year. That’s not particularly high growth for a stock that is trading at 29 times forward earnings.

Of course, it goes without saying that Apple is an incredible company and brand. It generated over $100bn in free cash flow last year and announced a $110bn share buyback programme in May. That was the largest in US corporate history!

However, due to the premium valuation and modest top-line growth, I’m in no rush to buy Apple shares today. I think there are potentially better options for my portfolio.

Here’s how an ISA investor could build a £20k passive income with UK shares

The Individual Savings Account (ISA) has saved investors billions in tax since 1999. Whether investing in UK shares or holding cash on account, the benefit to investors comes to tens of billions.

Yet while the wealth-boosting advantages of ISAs are clear, many people fall into the trap of regularly investing and expecting to automatically have a large pension pot at the end of it. Putting money in the ‘wrong place’, according to one’s investing goals, can have devastating effects in retirement.

Let me show you how.

Savings rates

Putting money in a Cash ISA can be a great option to consider for investors looking to manage risk.

The problem is that tens of billions of pounds are currently locked up in ultra-low-yielding accounts. According to Paragon Bank, a whopping £54.1bn is held in easy access and fixed-rate ISAs with an interest rate of 2% and below.

Given that the best-paying easy access Cash ISA (from Chip) currently pays 5.03%, savers are potentially missing out on substantial sums over the long term.

An ISA with a 2% interest rate would, on a £500 monthly investment, deliver £194,411 over 25 years. That 5%-plus paying one would provide a far superior £299,092.

A better return

It therefore pays to consider switching provider, then. But it’s also important to remember that putting too much money in a Cash ISA can also be a mistake.

This is because the return on one of these products may not generate a large enough retirement passive income. If someone drew down 4% from their £299,092 Cash ISA each year, they would have an annual passive income of £11,964 for around two decades.

Even combined with the State Pension, this may not be enough for many of us to retire comfortably.

Investing in a Stocks and Shares ISA as well as a Cash ISA can help solve this problem. I myself invest the lion’s share of my money in UK shares, trusts, and funds to get a better return, with a lower amount held in cash to balance risk.

I’ll show you why. Let’s say someone invests 80% of a £500 monthly sum in a Stocks and Shares ISA, and the remaining 20% in a Cash ISA paying 5.03%. If they could hit a realistic average annual return of 9% with a Stocks and Shares ISA, they would — after 25 years — have a healthy £508,267 to retire on from both ISAS.

That would, in turn, deliver a £20,331 annual passive income, based on a 4% drawdown rate.

Managing risk

As I say, investing in UK shares is a riskier endeavour. But individuals can reduce the danger by purchasing an exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the iShares S&P 500 ETF (LSE:CSPX).

This London-listed product invests in hundreds of US multinational companies, thus providing excellent diversification by industry and geography. But as well as providing a way to spread risk, a high weighting of technology shares (like Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple) allows investors to target huge returns as sectors like artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing rapidly grow.

During the 10 years to February 2025, this fund delivered a tasty average annual return of 12.6%.

Stock-based ETFs like this may decline during economic downturns. But over the long term, they still have the capacity to deliver impressive returns, as this S&P 500 product has shown.

£10,000 in savings? Here’s how an investor can target £3,560 in annual passive income

Everyone dreams of buying a stock and seeing it rocket in value overnight. But this is far from the only way of making money from the market. An alternative is to buy dividend shares that generate passive income.

Today, I’ll explain how an investor might do this using a very popular UK business as an example.

No guarantees

From the outset, it’s important to note that dividends are never guaranteed. A slide in profits could impact a company’s ability to distribute a proportion of that money to investors. Even if things are tickety-boo, management may elect to put more cash into improving the business in the hope that it will be pay off over the long term.

This is why owning a bunch of income stocks in a diversified portfolio is a prudent move.

Now, let’s say someone had £10,000 to put to work in a Stocks and Shares ISA. The amount doesn’t actually matter since holding a single share in a company still entitles the investor to receive any dividend paid out, even if it amounts to only a few pennies. The beauty of doing all this in an ISA also means that this cash will be beyond the reach of the taxman.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

One example to consider buying is insurance juggernaut Aviva (LSE: AV.)

Star dividend stock

I don’t think it’s particularly controversial to say that Aviva isn’t the sort of company to get the heart racing. That said, the share price is up 18% in 2025 already! It’s also up nearly 150% in the last five years, more than double the rise achieved by the FTSE 100 index as a whole.

A lot of this uplift is down to CEO Amanda Blanc’s (successful) efforts to steamline the business by selling off non-core assets. The recent capture of rival Direct Line also appears to have gone down well with the market.

Naturally, there are still risks here. Any issues with Direct Line’s integration could impact Aviva’s financial performance. Broader economic concerns, such as the bounce in inflation, might also have an adverse effect on profits and, consequently, dividends. Speaking of which, Aviva’s forecast yield sits at a meaty 6.7%. That’s almost double the average in the FTSE 100.

Put another way, £10,000 invested would deliver £670 in passive income in FY25. This is assuming that nothing changes from here. In reality, of course, the share price will move up or down (changing the yield). There’s also a chance that analysts have over- or underestimated the likely payout.

But it still gives us a number to work with.

Commitment required

By now, you’ve probably spotted one issue. That £670 is nowhere near the £3,560 mentioned at the top of this page. What gives?

Well, an investor really needs to keep reinvesting that money to get to the latter. This allows compounding to work its magic over time. Done this way, that holding in Aviva would hit our passive income goal in 25 years, assuming dividends aren’t cut (which isn’t guaranteed).

Sounds like a long time to wait? It doesn’t have to be that way. Remember that all this is based on not investing a single penny after that original £10,000.

Even just a few quid extra every month will be enough to speed the process up!

Up 490%, Lion Finance Group is a new name on the FTSE 250… but what is it?

Lion Finance Group (LSE:BGEO) is one of the FTSE 250’s top performers. The stock has surged since the pandemic and following a dip that took place after Russia invaded Ukraine.

So, what is Lion Finance Group? Well, the company was known as Bank of Georgia until February. It recently decided to change its name to reflect its geographical presence following its acquisition of Armenia’s largest bank, Ameriabank, in 2024.

More broadly, its growth story has been incredibly impressive. The stock has benefitted from the growth of Georgia’s economy — the fastest in Europe following the pandemic. And despite concerns about the government’s priorities, it has delivered a degree of stability amid the war in Ukraine.

Still incredibly cheap

One of the most amazing things about this stock is the fact that it still looks cheap despite surging 490% over five years. But that’s because earnings have also improved by around 500% versus 2019 levels. Currently, the stock is trading at 4 times forward earnings for 2025 and 3.6 times projected earnings for 2026. This represents a phenomenal discount versus the FTSE 250 average and versus UK-listed banking stocks.

What’s more, the dividend yield remains elevated. The current yield is 5.4% and this is expected to rise to 6.3% in 2026.

And here’s an important lesson for investors based on my own experiences. I bought what was then Bank of Georgia stock for around 900p a share in 2022. However, I sold in 2024 amid concerns about the election that was held in the autumn — it was always due to be a heated one. Nonetheless, that share sale could have been a mistake as the price has continued to rise. More interestingly however, my initial investment would have been yielding around 25%-30% in dividends annually! That’s because the dividend payments have surged relative to my entry price.

Political concerns remain

Since October 2024, Georgia has been engulfed in widespread political protests following disputed parliamentary elections and the ruling Georgian Dream party’s decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028. Demonstrators, demanding new elections and the release of unlawfully detained individuals, have faced police repression, yet protests persist, now entering their fourth month. The political turmoil has led to international isolation, strained relations with the EU and US, and the introduction of laws targeting dissent and civil society.

This instability has significantly impacted Georgia’s financial markets. Fitch Ratings downgraded Georgia’s outlook from Stable to Negative, reflecting growing investor anxiety. Given the ongoing unrest, political uncertainty, and potential for further sanctions, the investment climate remains highly volatile. What’s more, banks typically reflect the health of the economy. This is why I am not investing in Georgia at this time. The combination of political instability and market unpredictability makes it a risky proposition. Nonetheless, I believe it’s a stock worth watching closely.

I think this is the most punished FTSE stock in the market right now

For various reasons, investors might decide to stay away from a particular stock. It might mean valid concerns, but sometimes people can get it wrong, with misplaced fears. As a result, that’s what can make a FTSE share undervalued. Here’s one such case that I think has been overly shunned by investors.

Long-term share price losses

I’m referring to Ferrexpo (LSE:FXPO). The business operates iron ore mines in Ukraine, making money from producing and selling iron ore pellets, which are used in steel production. Over the past year, the stock is up by 62%.

But wait, I referred to the company as being the most punished FTSE stock. This is because even though the share price is up over the past year, it’s down 71% since February 2022. This ties in with the start of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The impact of the war on Ferrexpo has been high. It has severely disrupted its mining operations. The instability has led to operational challenges, reduced production, and heightened risks associated with conducting business in a conflict zone. In fact, Ferrexpo has been able to operate only one or two of its four pelletizing production lines over the past year.

Further, the company has recently been facing legal issues regarding potential illegal mining activities and environmental damage.

Given the impact of all of the above on the finances, I completely understand why the share price has fallen. But based on my outlook, I think the share price should be trading significantly higher.

A large potential catalyst

It’s clear that there’s renewed focus on striking a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. President Trump has made this clear. I think that this will happen within the coming few months.

The impact of this should help to catapult the stock price higher. The business should be able to access more ports, as in the past, enabling exports to increase almost overnight. I’d expect more of the pelletizing production lines to come back on-line, allowing the output to increase to match export demand.

There will likely be a large-scale project to rebuild Ukrainian cities. I’d expect steel production to soar, with iron ore supplied from Ferrexpo, the logical source.

In short, I believe that the company could do very well later this year, if a deal is agreed. The main reason why I think investors are overlooking the stock is that they either don’t feel a peace deal will be done, or that they think Ferrexpo has been weakened so much that it won’t be able to get back to pre-war levels. I agree these are risks going forward.

Pulling it all together

Ultimately, I think there’s too much pessimism surrounding the mining stock based on what could happen in the future. As a result, I’m seriously thinking about adding it to my portfolio. Granted, it’s a high-risk idea, but for investors who agree with my thinking, it could be worth considering.

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