In my opinion, this FTSE growth stock looks set to soar over the next 5 years!

Looking at the YouGov (LSE:YOU) share price performance in recent times, it seems difficult to justify my belief that the data and analytics technology group is a growth stock. Since April 2020, the value of the company’s shares has fallen 51%. Much of the damage occurred in June 2024, when it issued a profit warning.

Then and now

However, from a financial and operational perspective, the company’s unrecognisable from when it floated in April 2005.

During the year ended 31 July 2005 (FY05), it reported turnover of £2.9m and an operating profit of £961,000. In FY24, revenue was £335m and the company disclosed an adjusted operating profit of £49.6m. Since IPO, earnings per share has increased from 5.8p to 29.4p.

Using these figures, it does appear to meet the definition of a growth stock.

But the group’s recent troubles have dented investor sentiment. The stock now trades on 10 times its historic earnings. This is roughly half of where it has been over the past three years or so. This seems cheap to me and could be a good opportunity for investors to benefit from a stock that has much to gain from the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) solutions.

The fourth industrial revolution

In 2024, the global AI market was estimated to be worth $279bn. By 2030, it’s expected to grow to $1.8trn.

YouGov already employs AI in a number of its offerings. Those who closely followed the UK general election last year will have heard of the multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) opinion polls produced by the company.

But politics is a small part of what the group does. The fact that 3.7bn people were entitled to vote in national elections in 2024 didn’t materially affect the company’s performance.

In fact, the group has three divisions – Data Products (a subscription-based model), Research (client-specific projects), and Consumer Panel Services (household purchasing data available in 18 European countries).

And all of them provide the data that many AI applications require to be effective.

Encouragingly, these services can generate very high margins. The same set of data can be sold to thousands of clients at very little additional cost.

Possible challenges

But there are risks. With a market cap of £350m, the company’s still relatively small. Its shares are traded on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) where liquidity can be poor. A number of companies have recently announced plans to de-list, claiming their AIM valuations don’t reflect the true value of their businesses.

And although President Trump’s tariffs don’t affect the company directly, should there be a wider economic downturn, spending on data is one of the first things that companies might cut.

Indeed, the company’s cautious about its immediate prospects. It’s predicting “modest revenue growth” for FY25. And it says “trading conditions remain challenging reflecting the current macro-economic backdrop”.

I’m not expecting an immediate rebound in the YouGov share price. It often takes time to rebuild confidence after a profit warning. But it’s operating in a sector that should grow over the longer term. Therefore, I think it could be an excellent stock for those investors who like to look beyond short-term price volatility.

0.45x EV-to-EBITDA: this is the cheapest UK stock, IMO

Jet2 (LSE:JET2) stock just keeps getting cheaper, driven by broader macroeconomic concerns as Trump’s tariffs sink markets. With £2.3bn in net cash and a market cap around £2.5bn, the company is looking exceedingly cheap. In fact, I believe this could be the cheapest UK stock.

The Trump impact

Jet2 has been underappreciated for some time. However, the stock has also been swept up in the broad sell-off. The share price is now down 5% over the week and 10% over the month. Jet2 isn’t directly exposed to the tariffs, but it could face secondary pressures owing to economic distress and downturns.

While the Leeds-based firm primarily operates within Europe, the interconnected nature of the global economy means that weakened confidence and potential disruptions in supply chains could indirectly affect its operations. For example, higher costs for aircraft parts or maintenance services — some of which may be sourced internationally — could add to the carrier’s already mounting cost pressures.

Falling fuel prices

On Friday 4 April, oil prices fell to their lowest level in three years. And that’s important because jet fuel prices typically follow. Aviation fuel accounts for around 25% of operational costs across the sector. And while Jet2 practices fuel hedging — it buys fuel at fixed prices to reduce exposure to spot prices across future quarters — small changes in fuel prices can make a big difference. This is, potentially, a positive outcome from Trump’s market-crashing policies.

The valuation is exceptional

I thoroughly appreciate that Trump’s tariffs, albeit 10%, could damage consumer confidence, and Jet2’s margins are already relatively thin compared to more premium parts of the travel market. However, I simply cannot ignore the company’s valuation.

The stock’s enterprice value-to-EBITDA ratio is now 0.45 times. That’s phenomenally low. In fact, peers like IAG trade six times higher than that. Does this mean that Jet2 should be trading six times higher? Not exactly. Its margins are thinner and its fleet older. But it’s an indication that this stock is massively undervalued.

Just to bang home this point. Jet2’s enterprise value is currently around £300m. But the company’s net income for the year is forecasted at £431m. That would suggest an adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio under one. It’s simply unheard of.

Transition planning

I believe Jet2 is overlooked. However, the transition of its fleet from a Boeing-centric one to Airbus may weigh on the stock somewhat. The company is planning to increase its fleet size from 135 to 163 by 2031, spending £833m annually in the process. While this may sound like a large figure, it aligns with industry norms. Airlines typically spend about 12% of revenue on capital expenditure, and this £833m is around 11.4% of projected sales for the upcoming year.

In the long run, I’d expect this transition and enlargement plan to pay dividends. The fleet will become more efficient as it moves towards the A321neo and there are supportive trends for further seat expansion. I’m continuing to buy this stock.

Can the Rolls-Royce share price hit £13 in the coming year?

The past year has seen Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR) perform spectacularly. In just 12 months, the Rolls-Royce share price has soared 77%. If it achieves the same growth in the next year, the share will break the £13 barrier.

Past performance is no guide to what to expect next in the stock market, of course. But it is worth noting that the recent performance of the Rolls-Royce share price is not a one-off. It was the strongest performer among any FTSE 100 share in 2023 – and among the best performers in 2024.

That stunning rebound after selling for pennies apiece in 2022 reflects an improved business performance alongside ambitious medium-term targets.

If things continue going well, then, might the same factors keep pushing the Rolls-Royce share price up over the next 12 months? If so, should I invest now?

Good opportunities but also significant risks

Clearly, current management has step-changed performance at the company.

If that continues, for example with a keen focus on costs and also on the profitability of new business wins, it could be good for revenues and especially earnings.

The company is also operating in an environment that currently plays to its strengths.

Civil aviation demand has boomed in recent years, translating to more airlines buying engines as well as servicing existing ones. On top of that, multiple European governments have announced plans to ratchet up defence spending in a way not many would have expected just a few years ago.

But while there are reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for Rolls, I also see multiple grounds for caution as an investor.

The current chief executive has likely now wrung the easy savings out of the business. It may become harder work to cut costs as time goes by.

Meanwhile, several US airlines have recently reported weaker passenger demand in some areas, which could signal that the recent boom years for civil aviation are winding down.

On top of that, one perennial risk that faces civil aviation is an event that suddenly hurts demand. The recent Heathrow closure was a reminder of that. More sustained downturns can have dramatic impact, as seen during the pandemic – but engine makers like Rolls have no control over them.

The share already looks pricey

Given all of that, I do not find the current Rolls-Royce share price-to-earnings ratio of 25 attractive.

In fact, to me it looks pricey and for that reason I am not planning to buy the shares.

I recognise that the company’s ambitious medium-term targets mean that the prospective valuation may be more attractive if earnings per share grow. But targets are one thing – there is no guarantee that the company will be able to achieve them.

I think the expectation of delivering is already built into the price. So, in the next year, unless there is outstanding news about its business performance, I see no reason for Rolls-Royce to achieve a much higher valuation ratio, as it would need to for the share price to hit £13.

Here’s how a £20k ISA could produce £1,580 of passive income in the next year

With the annual contribution deadline for a Stocks and Shares ISA falling today (5 April), my mind has turned to how I use my ISA. One of the ways I use it is as a tax-free wrapper to pile up passive income in the form of dividends from blue-chip shares.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

That means I can earn money without working for it, thanks to the commercial success of large, proven businesses.

Such an approach can be lucrative.

Here is an example of how an investor could use a £20,000 ISA to target £1,580 of passive income next year – and again in 2026 and again in 2027 and indeed year after year for decades!

Dividend shares can be highly lucrative

The reason for that ongoing income potential is that once an investor owns a share, they receive any dividends it pays until they sell it. So, a share bought today could be generating passive income for decades to come.

Such payouts are never guaranteed. So a savvy investor will spread their ISA over a range of different shares. Our hypothetical £20,000 is ample to do that, for example by buying into five to 10 different companies.

It is also important to choose carefully what shares to buy. Just looking at past performance can be misleading — sometimes highly so. Instead, an investor ought to consider what they think the future prospects of a business looks like and how that compares to the current share valuation.

Targetting almost £1,600 per year

I mentioned above a potential target of £1,580 in passive income annually from a £20,000 ISA.

That implies a dividend yield of 7.9%.

Such a yield is fairly high: the average yield of the flagship FTSE 100 index of leading shares currently sits at 3.4%, for example.

But in today’s market, I think such a yield is possible. One share for investors to consider is financial services firm Legal & General (LSE: LGEN). It offers a 9% yield.

It also has a policy of annual dividend growth and has delivered on that in recent years.

Can it keep doing so?

The business does have a strong brand, large customer base, and resilient demand thanks to its focus on the retirement-linked market.

But I see risks too. Choppy stock markets could lead to policy holders pulling out funds, hurting profits. It is not a coincidence that the company’s last dividend cut followed the 2008 economic crisis.

From a long-term perspective, though, I see Legal & General as offering strong passive income potential.

Choosing the right ISA matters

Of course earning passive income is not just about earning dividends: it also involves not handing over too much of those earnings in the form of ISA fees and costs.

There are lots of Stocks and Shares ISAs available on the market.

Today seems like the perfect time for an investor to look at what they offer and decide what one suits their own needs best!

SEC clarifies that most stablecoins are not securities

Stablecoin Tether and Circle’s USDC dominate the market.
Justin Tallis | Afp | Getty Images

The Securities and Exchange Commission issued a statement on Friday, clarifying that it does not deem certain stablecoins to be securities.

Specifically, the agency’s Division of Corporate Finance refers to stablecoins that are “designed to maintain a stable value relative to the United States Dollar, or ‘USD,’ on a one-for-one basis, can be redeemed for USD on a one-for-one basis … and are backed by assets held in a reserve that are considered low-risk and readily liquid with a USD-value that meets or exceeds the redemption value of the stablecoins in circulation” – which it calls “covered stablecoins.”

“It is the Division’s view that the offer and sale of Covered Stablecoins, in the manner and under the circumstances described in this statement, do not involve the offer and sale of securities,” the SEC said.

The clarification comes as the stablecoin sector of crypto has been ramping up on increasing optimism that Congress will pass its first piece of crypto legislation this year, and that it will focus on stablecoins. President Donald Trump has said he hopes lawmakers will send stablecoin legislation to his desk before Congress’s August recess.

Interest payments, stablecoins and the SEC

The SEC’s definition of a covered stablecoin does not allow for interest payments by the issuer to the user. “While earnings on these assets, such as interest, may be used by a Covered Stablecoin issuer at its discretion, no such earnings are paid to Covered Stablecoin holders,” the statement says.

That’s a topic Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong is hoping Congress will change. He spoke on CNBC earlier this week, saying he’s “concerned about this idea that consumers cannot get interest on stablecoins” – doing so would make the issuer subject to securities law, he explained in a lengthy X post – and that he’d “like to see legislation that allows that.”

There are two competing pieces of stablecoin legislation now waiting on a full vote. This week, the House Financial Services Committee passed the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy Act (STABLE). Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C, and Bill Hagerty, R.-Tenn., introduced the competing Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS) in February, and it was approved by the Senate Banking Committee last month.

Stablecoins are widely viewed as the next killer app for crypto. Their market has grown about 11% this year and about 47% in the past year. Tether and USD Coin dominate the market. Historically, they’re used for trading and as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi), and crypto investors watch them closely for evidence of demand, liquidity and activity in the market. Increasingly, they’ve become more attractive to individual users and financial institutions alike for payments.

Outside of covered stablecoins, the universe of yield-bearing stablecoins – which the SEC implies would fall under securities law – has been “growing exponentially post the U.S. election, with the market cap of the five biggest surpassing $13 billion, or 6% of the total stablecoin universe,” according to JPMorgan.

The SEC’s regulatory guidance caps a busy week for stablecoin issuers. Circle, the issuer of the USDC filed for an initial public offering this week. If successful, it would be one of the most prominent pure-play crypto companies to list on a U.S. exchange, after Coinbase went public in 2021 through a direct listing.

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Prediction: 12 months from now, £5,000 invested in Tesla stock could be worth…

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has performed pretty awfully recently. Since they peaked at $479.86 in mid-December, the electric vehicle (EV) automaker’ shares have tumbled by 44% to $267.28 today.

If an investor had put in £5,000 at that point, they would only have £2,785 today. Disappointing!

Would investing that £5,000 today be a great opportunity or will the shares continue crumbling?

Bubble bursting?

Tesla stock has long been a winner in the stock market. It’s rocketed by 20,781% since it went public in 2010. But there’s always been concerns with its valuation. The firm’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 131 is certainly expensive.

I don’t think valuation alone is the reason its shares are falling, as the firm has always had high valuation multiples.

The valuation was always justified by strong growth, which is now starting to dissipate. In fact, sales are declining. Looking at the firm’s latest press release from Tuesday (2 April), it only delivered 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decline from the 386,610 vehicle deliveries in the year-ago quarter.

So, what’s causing Tesla’s growth to stagnate?

First, competition has been hurting the company. For example, EV sales for the Chinese competitor BYD rocketed up by 39% to 416,388 in its first quarter of 2025, a stark contrast to Tesla’s decline.

Second, Elon Musk’s involvement in politics may have damaged the automaker’s image. This is evident with Tesla cars and dealerships being subject to protests. Furthermore, Musk’s criticism of European politics has been ill-received on the continent. The firm’s most popular model, Model Y, saw a fall in sales in March year on year. In France, it’s declined by 37%, and then even more in some other countries.

Trump’s tariffs

So, can Tesla overcome these issues and resume growth? Well, certainly, the company has plenty of catalysts for future growth. Its involvement in autonomous vehicles is an example of this. This market is expected to grow at a compounded annual rate of 37% through to 2034. This is an opportunity Tesla could seize.

However, Trump’s tariffs could spell more trouble for the firm.

While it’s considered to be well-positioned for the tariffs, it still sources some of its parts for production outside the US. Therefore, the company could still be hit by extra costs. If it passes these on to consumers, it could suffer from reduced demand. If the firm absorbs them, it will eat into margins and profitability. This isn’t helpful for the automaker, as its gross margin has already been falling since 2022. Back then it was 25.6%, now it’s 17.9%.

Moreover, the company could be further hit on its sales abroad, as there are potential reciprocal tariffs. For example, the EU is considering employing this measure, adding to Tesla’s struggles to sell in the bloc.

For me, Tesla stock is already pretty expensive. Even if it were to decline by half, its P/E would still be 60. This is too high, especially with the issues the company is encountering. The global trade war is only going to add to this. Therefore, I could see a £5,000 investment falling by half to £2,500 (and potentially lower) over the next 12 months.

See what £10,000 invested in Tesla shares at their mid-December peak is worth today 

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have always been a roller-coaster ride, but never more so than today. 

The company’s mercurial founder, Elon Musk, divides investors like never before. After his hook-up with Donald Trump, the hype was up to 11. Following this week’s tariff shock, it’s raced past 12 or 13.

After last November’s presidential election, the Trump-Tesla tie-up excited investors. By 18 December 2024, Tesla stock had flown to a 52-week high of just over $488. As I write, it’s plunged 45% to $267.

Can Elon Musk bounce back from this?

Someone who invested £10,000 at that December peak would be sitting on a 45% paper loss. Their investment would be worth just £5,500 now.

That said, someone who invested £10k on Tesla one year ago would still be up 56%, despite recent volatility. Their shares would be worth £15,600. Which puts the recent dip in perspective.

The big question is what happens next. China has just hit back with a 34% tariff on American imports, sending markets into another spiral. Tit-for-tat retaliation was inevitable, but it’s only making a bad situation worse. 

Musk may or may not have distanced himself from Trump, but whether he can ever repair his reputation among Tesla’s more liberally minded customers is another matter.

The anti-Tesla campaign may gather pace as tariffs bite. The outlook for the group’s electric vehicle (EV) business looks tricky, especially as China and Europe are such key markets.

Many argue Tesla has moved beyond EVs and is now all about energy storage, robotics, and self-driving vehicles. That may be true, but will it help if the world decides it’s had enough of Musk?

Latest results, published on 2 April, show sales have slumped to their lowest level in three years. 

The company delivered almost 337,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, down 13% year on year. Competition from Chinese rival BYD is intensifying, but Musk’s polarising role in the Trump administration isn’t helping. I can only imagine what Q2 sales will look like.

Highly volatile growth play

Despite the drop, Tesla remains eye-wateringly expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 131. Hardly a bargain.

The 42 analysts tracking the stock have set a median one-year price target of just over $352. If correct, that’s a hefty 32% jump from today. 

Most of those forecasts are out of date, though. Given Tesla’s constant stream of extreme news, nothing can be relied upon.

For years, Tesla has been priced far beyond what its fundamentals justify, driven by the cult of Musk. But now that cult is in danger of imploding. Maybe it’s time for investors to stick to the numbers.

I’ve never owned Tesla shares, though I was briefly tempted to take a punt a few days ago. Musk is the wrong man to write off. If Trump softens his tariff stance, we could see the mother of all market recoveries with Tesla leading the charge.

But anyone buying Tesla stock today has to accept the risks are huge and impossible to fathom. Some have even called for him to quit as CEO. Would that help? Maybe, maybe not.

For many, Musk is Tesla. But for investors, that may no longer be a good thing. In my view, only a pure gambler or true believer should consider buying Tesla shares today.

2 ‘safe’ LSE dividend stocks to consider as global markets sell off

Many investors are looking for safer dividend stocks to buy right now. And that’s understandable as global markets are well and truly in meltdown mode as a result of tariff uncertainty.

The good news is that on the London Stock Exchange, there are plenty of dividend stocks on the safer side. Here’s a look at two I think are worth considering today.

Identifying safe stocks

There are many ways to identify safer stocks. One is to look for companies that operate in defensive industries like Consumer Staples and Utilities. Another way is to look for companies that have recurring revenues, strong cash flows, and robust balance sheets.

But there’s a shortcut we can take to find the safest stocks in the market right now. And that’s simply looking at which stocks are close to their 52-week highs. This can give us an indication of where money is flowing in this market volatility. In other words, it can highlight the ‘safe-haven’ stocks.

Moving upwards

Looking at the FTSE 100 today, there are currently seven stocks that are within 1% of their 52-weeks highs. And there are 16 within 5%. Now, I wouldn’t classify all of these stocks as safe. But a lot of them do have the potential to offer protection in the current market.

One that looks interesting to me at present is electricity company National Grid (LSE: NG.). It’s currently only about 1% off its 52-week high.

Utilities are classic safe-haven stocks because demand for electricity and gas tends to remain quite stable throughout the economic cycle. Whereas consumers might decide not to buy a new pair of trainers in a recession, they’re not going to cancel their electricity or gas contract.

The numbers here look quite appealing, in my view. Currently, the stock trades on a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.6, which isn’t high. The dividend yield‘s about 4.4% and dividend coverage (the ratio of earnings to dividends) is about 1.6 times. So there’s potential for a decent level of income.

I’ll point out that there’s some uncertainty in relation to tariffs. For example, the company may end up paying higher prices for renewable energy technology, resulting in lower profits.

Overall though, I think this dividend stock is on the safer side and is worth considering in the current environment.

Immune to tariffs?

Another stock that looks interesting to me right now is Rightmove (LSE: RMV). It’s less than 1% off its 52-week high.

This is not your typical safe-haven stock – it’s an internet company (these can be volatile at times). However, I can see why investors are gravitating towards it right now.

Rightmove is a British company that offers property search services in the UK. So it shouldn’t be affected by Trump’s tariffs, in theory. Moreover, it’s relatively immune to the ups and downs of the property cycle. Even during downturns, it tends to experience growth and high levels of profitability (it’s one of the most profitable companies in the FTSE 100).

Of course, it’s not perfect. Today, Rightmove is facing more competition than ever. However, with the stock trading on a low-20s P/E ratio and offering a yield of 1.5%, I like the set-up. I think it has the potential to deliver solid returns in the years ahead.

US stock market rout: an unmissable opportunity for investors?

The US stock market suffered its worst day in five years on 3 April. More than 50% of my portfolio is in cash, so I missed the worst of it. But my volatile and Asia-exposed tech stocks really suffered.

To start things off, here’s my quick take. The tariffs probably aren’t for the long run. The data suggests these tariffs could sink Apple and many other American companies reliant on Asian supply chains.

However, if the tariffs stick, we could expect to see iPhone prices hit $2,300 and an entry level $10,000 Rolex move closer to $14,000. That’s assuming producers don’t swallow the costs.

So maybe I could take a shot at one of my favourite companies Celestica — which produces routers and switches in Asia — in the hope that the share price (down 54% since 5 February) recovers if Trump brings tariffs down.

Or I could assume these tariffs aren’t going to disappear any time soon. Many analysts’ base case scenario sees tariffs remaining, but at a negotiated lower rate. So what new trends may emerge that could be positive for stocks?

Cross-boarder arbitrage

Cross-border arbitrage involves taking advantage of price discrepancies for the same product or asset across different countries or markets. This is a trend that could take hold. And it certainly makes some sense.

If an American wanted to purchase a Rolex which previously cost around $10,000, they could fly to Geneva, buy the non-tariff price, get the VAT back, and fly back to the US. The saving on the watch alone could be $5,000. Once again, that’s assuming the producer/importer pass on all tariffs to customers.

This is an extreme example because not everyone buys luxury watches. However, there’s certainly compelling forces to believe that shopping tourism could be a real thing if these tariffs stick. Even Nike’s Vietnam-produced trainers could become significantly cheaper in Europe, especially as it already has excess stock.

So what does this mean? Well, maybe transatlantic travel demand could pick up. That may be positive for companies like IAG and Delta. However, it would have to be a strong trend for it to make a noticeable difference to sales. Likewise, maybe cruise companies like Carnival have been oversold. Cruises often stop at tax-free shopping designations in the Caribbean and Europe.

VAT refunds

One I’m watching very closely is Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR), which recently agreed to buy Global Blue Group Holding (NYSE:GB). The latter could quietly emerge as a beneficiary of Trump’s proposed tariffs, particularly if luxury shoppers increasingly head overseas to sidestep higher prices at home.

Global Blue facilitates VAT refunds for international tourists, primarily in Europe, allowing Americans to reclaim local taxes when purchasing high-end goods abroad. With tariffs potentially adding 30% or more to items like Swiss watches and French handbags, Global Blue’s value proposition strengthens.

Trading at 20.5 times forward earnings, Global Blue isn’t particularly cheap. However, the stock’s currently covered by just one analyst, suggesting it may be flying under the radar. Nonetheless, a shift in political winds or diplomatic backlash could curtail VAT refund schemes, which would directly hit Global Blue’s core revenue stream.

Still, both these companies are worth watching. If Global Blue wasn’t being taken over, I’d buy the stock. I’ll keep watching Shift4 for now.

After a 13% ‘Trump tariff’ fall, is the Barclays share price too cheap to miss?

The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price has slumped 13% since President Trump imposed his punitive import tariffs on the world.

It comes after the FTSE 100 fell more than 3% over the same period. It’s back down to where it was as long ago as… oh, only January. Maybe not such a big deal. It’s a smaller fall than the S&P 500, which lost 4.8% on the day after the announcement. And the Nasdaq fell 6%.

The price movements I talk about here are as I write on 4 April, and are likely to change even as the minutes go by.

Panic, or what?

What would billionaire investor Warren Buffett do? He’d at least be able to provide a quote to make us think:

Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons.

Letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 2016

The question is, do Barclays shares look like the shower of gold he’s talking about? Well, the dramatic fallout from Trump tariffs looks pretty torrential to me.

Why Barclays?

Barclays isn’t the only FTSE 100 bank to fall in the past couple of days.

With these increased import levies being imposed on goods, it’s not immediately obvious why banks should suffer. At least not directly. But when other businesses hit a downturn, the banks behind their financing really can’t escape some of the pain.

NatWest Group is down 8.9%. And the Lloyds Banking Group share price has dropped 8.8%, despite a focus on UK business.

Barclays was the one notable exception after the 2008 banking crisis to maintain its international banking business. Close to a third of its revenues come from the US. So it’s hardly surprising that sentiment has shifted against it more than the other UK high street banks.

In perspective

Before we get too shaken by this sudden share price slump, we really should look at the bigger picture. Barclays shares have still climbed 33% in the past 12 months. And they’ve more than trebled over five years.

Even after that, were looking at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 7.4, only around half the FTSE 100 average. It means earnings in 2025 could take a significant knock and still leave the shares in what I see as good-value territory.

Forecasts see rising earnings pushing the Barclays P/E down to 6.7 in 2025, and as low as 5.3 by 2026. They’ll no doubt be updated soon. But I still see a fair bit of safety margin in such meagre valuations.

Snap it up?

Barclays has to be worth considering for any investor who thinks that Donald Trump, like countless others who’ve tried before him, will not be able to buck the market over the long term.

In fact, I think the same about a large number of fallen UK shares right now. And some US ones. Where’s my washtub?

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