The FTSE’s tanking. Here’s what I’m doing

While the FTSE 100 started the year well, it’s now been well and truly caught up in the global trade war. On Friday, the blue-chip stock market index fell about 5%. Today, it’s down another 5%.

These falls are no doubt a little scary for a lot of investors. Right now, many are in panic mode. I’m not though – here’s a look at how I’m handling the current environment.

It’s a mess

The economic situation really is a mess. As a result of Donald Trump’s tariffs, there’s a huge amount of uncertainty. One major issue is that many companies could be looking at significantly lower earnings as a result of the tariffs.

Take a company like Rolls-Royce, for example. It sources components for its engines from a range of different countries. So it could take a substantial hit from the tariffs.

Not helping here is the fact that at this stage, we don’t really know how much of a hit different companies are going to take. I’d say most probably don’t know themselves at present!

The other big issue is that a global recession (economic slowdown) is looking increasingly likely. Right now, businesses don’t have the confidence to spend, and consumers are also reigning in their spending. A recession could hurt businesses in a range of industries, including banking, construction and retail.

My strategy

Now, I’ve seen this kind of uncertainty – and market meltdown – before. Many times in fact, because I’ve been investing for over 20 years now. I’ve invested through the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009, Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, and many other unsettling events. They’ve all been scary.

But here’s the thing – the market has always recovered.

So what I’m doing now is:

  • Staying calm – I don’t want to panic and do anything irrational.
  • Thinking long term – I have a 20-year horizon so I have plenty of time on my side.
  • Looking for investment opportunities – history shows that market sell-offs can be a great time to invest.
  • Drip feeding capital into the market – picking the bottom is really difficult so I’m investing small amounts of money bit by bit every few days.

This strategy’s worked for me before. And I’m optimistic it will work for me this time (in the long run).

An opportunity?

One FTSE stock I’m looking at – and believe is worth considering today – is
Polar Capital Technology Trust (LSE: PCT). It’s an investment trust with a technology focus.

In mid-February, this trust was trading for around 375p. Today however, it can be snapped up for 243p.

With this trust, investors get exposure to lots of high-quality technology companies including the likes of Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Amazon. And all at a discount too – currently the trust is trading at a 9% discount to its net asset value (NAV)

Of course, while the tech sector has a lot of long-term potential, companies within it aren’t immune to the tariffs. Apple, for example, could be looking at a big hit to its earnings in the near term.

Taking a long-term view however, I think this trust will do well. In a world that’s becoming increasingly digital, I see tech as the place to be.

Apple stock is close to 52-week lows. Should I snap it up now?

Last Friday (April 4), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock fell over 7% to close just above $188. This was the lowest level since May 2024, and it’s now getting close to the $165 mark at which it traded last April. A couple of months ago, it would have been crazy to think that I could be buying Apple shares near the lowest level in a year. Here’s my thinking right now.

Reasons for the steep fall

To simply say that Apple stock fell due to the Trump tariff announcements doesn’t do it justice. Digging deeper, the primary catalyst was the fact that Asian nations were hit with high tariff rates, in places where Apple has a large manufacturing presence.

For example, China is Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, responsible for assembling flagship products like the iPhone and iPad. China now faces a 34% tariff, up from the previous 20%. Operations in Vietnam are now subject to a 46% tariff!

Other places where Apple operates, such as India and Malaysia, are further impacted. Ultimately, the new levies threaten to disrupt its supply chain and increase production costs.

Aside from this company-specific factor, Apple was caught up in the heavy selling as it’s a high-growth stock. During periods of market volatility, such stocks typically experience the largest falls. On the other hand, defensive stocks from sectors such as utilities and consumer staples tend to outperform.

Assessing the future

To some extent, the management team at Apple has tried to prepare for some tariff impact. In late February, the business announced plans to invest more than $500bn in the US over the next four years. The plan, which involves hiring around 20,000 new staff members and having a server factory in Texas, was designed to try and protect against import levies.

This is an early sign of what could be pushed shortly, as the company tries to reassure investors. However, it’s important to note that transitioning manufacturing operations is a complex and time-consuming process. It’s not like Apple can stop production in Asia and flip it to the US tomorrow. These strategy shifts can take months, or more often than not, years.

Investors are likely aware of this, meaning I don’t think Apple shares are worth buying yet. Of course, trying to pick the perfect time to buy a falling stock is impossible. Yet based on the implications of the tariff news, I struggle to see any reason why the share price should rally from its current level.

Better options out there

When it comes to the stock market in general, I think there are some great opportunities after the fall last week to buy some undervalued stocks. However, I don’t think this applies to Apple yet. It’s one of the companies that is majorly impacted by tariffs and so will need to rethink its business model significantly in the coming weeks and months.

I could be wrong about a further fall in the stock. If President Trump shifts his trade policy or if Apple gets tariff exemptions on some components, then the stock could rebound swiftly. But I don’t see this happening, so I am staying away from buying right now and I don’t see it as one for other investors to consider either.

2 FTSE 100 gems that rallied last week as the stock market tumbled

Last week was a crazy one for financial markets in general. Very few stocks gained value during a period when some investors were spooked by the extensive tariffs that the US administration placed on other countries. However, within the FTSE 100, some shares gained, with two in particular catching my eye.

Business still flowing

The first one was United Utilities Group (LSE:UU), which was the best-performing FTSE 100 name last week. It gained almost 5%, meaning the stock is up 1% over the last year.

There was no major business-specific news that came out, but rather, the rally speaks to where investors were reallocating their money. During uncertain times, utilities tend to outperform other sectors due to their defensive operations. For example, United Utilities primarily provides water and wastewater services in the North West of England. It has a proven business model of charging for these services within a fair regulatory framework.

So even if the tariffs damage the UK economy, people will still need water services. This should mean that the company’s revenue is unhindered by last week’s announcements. This can’t be said for all firms!

With a dividend yield of 4.79% and a track record of over a decade of continuous payments, the appeal of owning the stock for income during a volatile period also can’t be underestimated.

However, sewage leaks can cause reputational damage and fines. The company has recently been accused of illegally dumping waste in Lake Windermere. This situation needs to be monitored closely.

Captain of stormy seas

Admiral Group (LSE:ADM) rose by 2.5% last week and is now up 10% over the previous year. The insurance company primarily focuses on car and household protection, selling insurance straight to the public. It makes money from the premiums paid and other ancillary services.

Even though the group does have some small exposure to the US, it was reported last month that the company is looking to sell the US operations. Therefore, even though it might get slightly caught in the crosshairs of the evolving trade war, the vast majority of business is done in the UK.

Aside from that positive element, Admiral slots in again as a defensive stock. In my view, this was the main reason for the share price increasing last week. Insurance is a product that we all need, especially car insurance. Even if times get tough, I have to insure my vehicle. The impact on Admiral of any pending economic storm should be limited. This makes it appealing for investors at the moment.

Despite all the good points, investors need to be aware that Admiral is exposed to unexpected spikes in claims. Should we have a black swan event, extreme weather or other similar things, it could have to take a hit with payouts.

I think both stocks are worthy of consideration for an investor looking to find some defensive ideas to shelter from the market fall.

Glencore’s share price is 53% off its 52-week highs. Is it time to consider buying?

Glencore’s (LSE: GLEN) share price has fallen like a stone recently. As I write before the market open on Monday 7 April, it’s down 33% year to date, 48% over a year, and 53% from its 52-week highs.

Is it time for investors to consider buying shares in the commodities giant? Let’s discuss.

Not my kind of stock

Let me start by saying that Glencore isn’t the type of share I buy for my own portfolio. To me, commodity stocks are too unpredictable.

Mining companies don’t have much control over their revenues and earnings. That’s because commodity prices swing around from one day to the next (and the moves can be substantial).

On Friday, for example, the price of copper (Glencore’s main commodity) tanked. Due to worries over a global trade war – which sparked a sell-off in metals – it experienced its worst fall in five years.

Given the unpredictable nature of earnings, mining stocks are hard to value. Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are essentially meaningless because earnings (the ‘E’) can be all over the place and come in way above or below analysts’ forecasts.

Forecast dividend yields can’t really be trusted either. Because when profits fall, dividends are often reduced.

I prefer to go for companies that are in charge of their own destiny and have the ability to continually raise their prices. An example here is Sage, which sells accounting software.

It’s worth pointing out that while Glencore’s share price has tanked recently, Sage shares have held up reasonably well. Over one year, they’re only down 5% (versus -48% for Glencore).

But I do see potential

Having said all that, if we’re patient, I think there’s a chance that Glencore shares could work from here.

In the short term, there’s quite a bit of uncertainty. Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to hit earnings. Meanwhile, a major global economic slowdown — a full-blown recession — is looking increasingly likely. This could negatively impact demand for copper.

But in the long run, the fundamentals for copper continue to look pretty good. Over the next decade, the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), the shift to renewable energy, and the scale-up of data centres should all lead to higher demand for copper (and higher revenues for Glencore).

So, the stock could come good for long-term investors.

A large director buy

One person who clearly sees potential in Glencore shares right now is CFO Steven Kalmin. On Friday he snapped up 588,498 shares at a price of £2.33 per share, spending roughly £1.37m on stock.

That’s a large trade from the insider. And it shows confidence in the long-term story.

Perhaps Kalmin is also optimistic that Glencore’s trading division can capitalise on the volatility in commodity prices. After all, volatile prices can create plenty of opportunities for traders.

Risk vs return

In summary, Glencore shares are a little speculative, in my view. With this company, it’s very hard to know what’s going to happen in the near term, and get a read on the valuation.

But if an investor is willing to buy the shares now and hold for many years, I think there’s a reasonable chance they will provide attractive returns. In the long run, demand for copper is likely to rise. I see this as one to consider.

Forecast: in 1 year, the Marks and Spencer share price could be…

Like many of Britain’s grocers, the Marks and Spencer (LSE:MKS) share price is off to a rocky start in 2025. Fear of a new pricing war with Asda sparked an industry-wide sell-off. And yet, when zooming out, this recent drop hasn’t put much of a dent in the stock’s medium-term performance.

Since Stuart Machin took the reins of leadership in May 2022, the fashion-to-food chain has been on a pretty solid run. In fact, its market-cap is up over 160% in just shy of three years. And despite recent turmoil, analyst forecasts remain bullish.

So what are the experts predicting for the Marks and Spencer share price in 2025?

Prediction: growth will continue

Despite shoppers largely looking for discounts and deals right now, there remains some appetite to splurge on occasion. Rivals like Tesco and Aldi both saw a notable uplift in demand for their premium ranges of products over the Christmas holidays. And M&S’s premium offer was no exception.

Its winter trading results revealed an 8.9% jump in like-for-like sales for its food products, and even demand for fashion increased with a better-than-expected 1.9% jump.

Sadly, management’s outlook didn’t ignite much confidence. It cited uncertainty regarding the economic climate and an incoming increase in tax expenses thanks to the boost in employer Nation Insurance contributions. Combined with this, caused shares to take a small tumble in early January.

However, it seems analysts haven’t been too discouraged with forecasts for 2025 and 2026, which are still promising growth. Sales are expected to reach as high as £14.6bn by 2026, paired with a potential 42% gain in earnings per share. Subsequently, 14 of 17 analysts currently have Marks and Spencer rated at a Buy or Outperform with an average 12-month share price forecast of 447.5p.

At this price point, it suggests the retailer is currently undervalued by roughly 25% right now.

What could go wrong?

Locking in a 25% gain in just 12 months is undeniably exciting. After all, the FTSE 100 only usually manages around 8% a year. But as alluring as this sounds, it’s important to remember that forecasts aren’t set in stone. Marks and Spencer operates in a fiercely competitive industry. And while the firm tends to cater to a niche and wealthier audience versus most supermarkets, it still has rivals like Waitrose to worry about.

Tesco has also started encroaching on its territory in recent years, with its Finest range luring M&S customers away with cheaper premium offerings. Should this trend continue, sales and earnings forecasts could fall short of expectations.

All things considered, Machin seems to be making the right moves, especially considering the stock recently hit its highest point since 2016. I think investors should brace for more short-term volatility while the impact of economic uncertainty persists. But in the long run, the business appears to be in good hands. That’s why Marks and Spencer may be worth a closer look now that its share price has taken a tumble.

Down 34%, does IAG’s share price look an unmissable bargain to me now?

International Consolidated Airlines’ (LSE: IAG) share price has dropped 34% from its 7 February one-year high of £3.68.

This sort of a fall could flag a buying opportunity for those whose portfolio the stock suits. But it depends on two key factors in my experience as a former senior investment bank trader and longtime private investor.

The first is how strong the core business looks, including its earnings growth projections. The second is how the stock’s valuation appears compared to its price – and the two are not the same.

The reasons for the price fall

Before the additional 10% share price loss caused by the US’s new tariffs announcements, IAG’s share price was down 24%.

This was caused by a statement from the Competition and Markets Authority regarding greater sharing of operational slots by five airlines with their competitors.

More specifically, the five carriers – including IAG’s British Airways — agreed to give competitors take-off and landing slots at London airports on routes to and from Boston, Miami, and Chicago.

This feeds into a broad risk that increased competition in the airline sector may reduce IAG’s earnings over time.

How strong is the core business?

That said, IAG’s full-year 2024 results showed a strong business, with revenue up 9% year on year to €32.1bn (£27.02bn).  Operating profit increased 22.1% (to €4.283bn) over the period, while profit after tax rose 2.9% (to €2.732bn).

The fourth quarter looked especially robust as operating profit soared 91.4% quarter on quarter. This came from an 11.4% rise in revenue over the period.

On the other side of the balance sheet, the firm reduced its net debt by 17% to €7.517bn.

One benefit for shareholders was the announcement of a €1bn share buyback to be completed this year. These tend to support share price gains.

As it now stands, analysts project the company’s earnings will increase 6.6% a year to end-2027. And it is profit that ultimately powers a firm’s share price and dividends in the future.

How does the stock’s valuation look now?

On the first part of my standard share price assessment – key valuations’ comparisons with competitors – IAG’s results are mixed.

Its 4.9 price-to-earnings ratio is undervalued against the 8 average of its competitors. These consist of Jet 2 at 5.1, easyJet at 7.2, Wizz Air at 9.8, and Singapore Airlines at 9.9.

Its 0.4 price-to-sales ratio is slightly undervalued compared to its peers’ 0.5 average.

However, its 2.2 price-to-book ratio is overvalued against their average of 2.

That said, my acid test of value – a discounted cash flow analysis – shows the stock is 66% undervalued at £2.43. So, the fair value is technically £7.15. This rates as a huge bargain to me.

Nevertheless, it is not unmissable for me – and I will not buy it — for two key reasons. First, I am focused on high-yield stocks, which this is not (yielding just 3.1%). And second, the airline sector is too risky for me at my later stage of the investment cycle, aged over 50 as I am.

Forecast: in 1 year, the HSBC share price could be…

Even after the recent sell-off, the HSBC (LSE:HSBA) share price has been on a spectacular run over the last five years, climbing by over 70%. Considering it’s one of the largest banks in the world with a market-cap of £156bn, that’s a pretty impressive display. So much so that the stock’s now trading ahead of its 2008 peak for the first time.

If HSBC continues this long-term upward trajectory and surpasses 960p, the bank will reach its highest-ever share price on record. And looking at the latest analyst forecasts, that might happen within the next 12 months.

Streamlining operations

A big part of the bank’s recent run-up has been the decision from management to cut down on complex or underperforming businesses. As such, its retail banking operations in France and Mauritius have been sold off along with its businesses in Russia, Argentina, Armenia, and, most recently, Canada.

Not all these disposals were achieved at a profit. Argentina, for example, actually resulted in a $1bn loss. However, in the long term, management believes this initial pain is necessary. Looking to 2025, $300m of annualised cost savings have been unveiled by the newly appointed CEO, Georges Elhedery. This is part of a larger $1.5bn savings target to be achieved before the end of 2026, as Elhedery looks to maximise efficiency across the board.

What does this all mean for shareholders? The all-important return on tangible equity (RoTE) is now expected to reach the mid-teens between 2025 and 2027. That’s ahead of analyst expectations, but is this realistic? In my opinion, yes. In fact, stripping out all the one-time effects of the group’s disposals in 2024 puts HSBC’s underlying RoTE already at 16%.

With that in mind, it’s not so surprising that one analyst believes the HSBC share price could rise to as high as 1,196.36p over the next 12 months, setting a new record high in the process.

Taking a step back

The operational streamlining of 2024 was also matched with a welcome boost to its remaining operations, particularly the wealth management division. However, not everything was perfect.

Even with clever hedging strategies, HSBC’s net interest margin dropped from 1.66% to 1.56%. By comparison, rival bank Barclays achieved the opposite trend, reaching an average of 3.29%, up from 3.13% over the same period.

Could HSBC turn interest margins around? Possibly. But Elhedery has stated the interest rate environment “remains volatile and uncertain, particularly in the medium term”, which doesn’t spark a lot of confidence. That’s probably why another analyst is actually projecting the HSBC share price to fall to 797.83p by this time next year.

The bottom line

Elhedery’s only been in the corner office since February. As such, it’s too early to tell whether he will be a net positive for the bank. However, there’s no denying he has a clear vision of strategy that he’s wasting no time on implementing. And given he first joined HSBC in 2005, his strong understanding of the business undoubtedly gives him an advantage.

With that in mind, I’m cautiously optimistic for what’s to come. So for investors looking to gain exposure to the banking sector, HSBC may be worth a closer look.

Forecast: in 1 year, the Barclays share price could be…

While uncertainty continues to surround the British banking sector regarding motor financing, that hasn’t stopped the Barclays (LSE:BARC) share price from recently rising to its highest point since 2013!

Before the recent tariff-induced sell-off, the stock’s up almost 60% over the last 12 months and 265% over the past five years, with momentum being driven by the benefits of higher interest rates. But with so much growth already under its belt, can Barclays continue to grow its market-cap from here?

Barclays is forecast to grow

Over 80% of institutional analysts currently following this business have either issued a Buy or Outperform recommendation, with no one saying it’s time to sell. And looking at its latest 2024 results, it’s not hard to see why.

Management’s been cleverly making use of derivative strategies to lock up higher interest rates. As a result, the bank’s net interest margin, with the exception of its US arm, has been steadily rising throughout 2024. That’s despite the Bank of England issuing two rate cuts last year.

Divisional Net Interest Margin Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
Barclays UK 3.07% 3.09% 3.22% 3.34% 3.53%
Barclays UK Corporate Bank 4.19% 5.00% 5.30% 5.33% 5.50%
Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management 5.33% 5.17% 5.40% 5.35% 5.98%
Barclays US Consumer Bank 10.88% 11.12% 10.43% 10.38% 10.66%
Total (excluding Investment Bank and Head Office) 4.02% 4.12% 4.20% 4.29% 4.50%

Pairing the rising lending rate with a better-than-expected performance from its investment banking division, Barclays enjoyed a 6% boost to its total income, reaching £26.8bn. However, it was the fourth quarter that seemed to have gotten investors excited, with income growing an incredible 24% year on year.

With that in mind, bullish sentiment from analysts makes a lot of sense. The average Barclays share price forecast is 360p over the next 12 months, which is 25% higher than where it’s currently trading.

Taking a step back

The prospect of potentially transforming £1,000 into £1,250 over the next 12 months is undeniably appealing. However, there are some notable headwinds emerging in 2025 that could hamper the bank’s progress.

Across the pond, the US stock market is currently enduring a new wave of volatility driven by economic uncertainty surrounding tariffs and inflation. That could prove problematic for Barclays’ investment banking arm, which benefited from the US stock market rally in the second half of 2024.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, there’s still the question of Barclays’ liability should the ongoing court case into the motor finance scandal end unfavourably. Admittedly, the bank’s exposure is nowhere near as high as that of some of its peers like Lloyds. After all, Barclays stopped issuing motor finance loans in 2019. But, with uncertainty as to the scale of the fallout, even Barclay’s small level of exposure could create short-term disruption to its business and share price. And pairing this with stock market panic surrounding tariffs, it’s investment banking arm could also take a notable hit.

All of this is to say that the operating environment in early 2025 may lead to some disappointments when the bank releases its first set of results for the year. And that’s why I think it’s worth keeping the stock on my watchlist for now.

This FTSE 100 heavyweight’s yield is forecast to rise to 8% by 2027 and it looks 60%+ undervalued to me too!

FTSE 100 bank NatWest (LSE: NWG) has come a long way from the dark days of the 2007/08 financial crisis.

At that point, the UK government took an 84% stake in the bank as part of a wider bailout. This included a dramatic shoring up of its capital base and solvency ratios – along with other UK banks. These institutions are now in a better position to withstand new market shocks such as those being seen now.

The UK government is so confident in NatWest’s future that it reduced its holding to 9.99% in December. And Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed it will fully relinquish its holding by 2026.

So, I am wondering whether it is worth my while buying more stock ahead of that milestone.

Is business booming?

A risk to NatWest is a continued reduction of UK interest rates, which could damage its net interest income (NII). This is the money made from the difference in interest charged on loans and received on deposits.

However, its 2024 results saw NII actually rise year on year – by 2% to £11.275bn. Much of this came from lending more and from using products that offset interest rate risk.

Overall, profit for the year increased by 3.9% to £4.811bn.

More broadly, NatWest added around 500,000 new customers in 2024 to push its total to over 19m. It also saw growth in each of its three main businesses — Retail, Commercial & Institutional, and Private banking.

Analysts forecast its revenue will increase by 5.6% a year to the end of 2027. And they project its earnings will rise annually by 4.3% to the same point.

Revenue is the total money a business receives, while earnings are the money left after expenses.

Increased shareholder rewards

NatWest said it would increase its dividend payout ratio from around 40% to around 50% from 2025. This ratio is the percentage of net income a firm pays out in dividends.

It also lifted its dividend for 2024 by 26% to 21.5p. This generates a dividend yield on the current £4.14 share price of 5.2%.

However, consensus analysts’ projections are that the dividends will rise to 28.1p in 2025, 30.3p in 2026 and 34.4p in 2027.

These will generate respective yields on the present share price of 6.8%, 7.3% and 8.3%.

The latter yield is much more than my minimum 7%+ requirement for my passive income stocks. This is money earned with little effort on my part and is geared to providing me with a comfortable retirement.

Do the shares look a bargain to me?

NatWest’s price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 looks cheap compared to its competitors’ average of 8.1. These comprise Barclays at 6.7, HSBC at 7.5, Standard Chartered at 8.1, and Lloyds at 10.

To establish where the bank’s share price should be, based on expected future cash flows, I ran a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.

Using other analysts’ figures and my own, the DCF for NatWest shows that the stock is 62% undervalued right now.

Consequently, the fair value for the shares is £10.89, although prices can go down as well as up. Given this extreme undervaluation in my view and rapidly rising yield forecasts, I will buy more NatWest shares very soon.

An all-time low! Have 25% car tariffs wrecked the Aston Martin share price?

The Aston Martin (LSE:AML) share price was misfiring long before President Trump imposed punishing 25% tariffs on foreign carmakers. This development has heaped further misery on the company. At 62p, the FTSE 250 stock now trades at its lowest level since the firm’s IPO in 2018.

Announced less than a fortnight ago, specific duties on the car industry came into effect on 3 April. For Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech last week, American carworkers gathered in the Rose Garden audience. The optics couldn’t have been clearer. Imported cars have taken centre stage in Trump’s “economic revolution“.

So, is this the final nail in the coffin for Aston Martin shares? Or is there light at the end of the tunnel for the iconic British sports car manufacturer? Let’s explore.

The US is the firm’s largest market

The impact of these new vehicle levies on the Aston Martin share price can’t be understated. Because the firm doesn’t manufacture cars stateside, it’s firmly in the firing line. In FY24, the company generated £591m of revenue in the US. That represents over 37% of the group’s worldwide total. Frankly, wealthy American car enthusiasts are indispensable to the business.

Aston Martin fears the tariffs could deal a £30m blow to gross profit. Considering last year’s pre-tax loss swelled to £289.1m from £239.8m the year before, this throws a spanner in the works of efforts to stage a turnaround.

To mitigate the damage, the company plans to bolster its coffers with £125m. This will be sourced from selling a minority stake in the Formula 1 racing team and a cash injection from executive chairman Lawrence Stroll, although he claims the timing of the extra investment was purely coincidental to Trump’s announcement. Regardless, whether this sum is sufficient remains to be seen.

Falling luxury car sales

Leaving tariffs to one side, the Aston Martin share price was already in a downtrend due to pre-existing challenges. Wholesale volumes slumped 9% in FY24 to 6,030 cars, despite new product launches. Acutely weak demand in China, the group’s second-largest market, was a key factor.

In addition, the company’s been grappling with manufacturing delays due to late component arrivals. Since many analysts believe Trump might have just taken a sledgehammer to global supply chains, the outlook on this front just got gloomier.

Aston Martin’s balance sheet has deteriorated. Net debt has ballooned 43% to £1.16bn, which does little to soothe investors’ concerns.

Not catastrophic?

Nonetheless, CEO Adrian Hallmark has dismissed fears that tariffs will be a catastrophe for the business, stating: “it’s a problem, but we can manage our way through it.”

On the bright side, a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.33 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.79 are well below the firm’s historical averages. They’re also comfortably under benchmark levels that would usually pique the interest of value investors. At least many of the risks facing the stock appear to be priced in at today’s valuation.

But I’m not interested in buying today. Aston Martin shares were struggling before Trump’s bombshell, and the company’s future just became even more uncertain. In what’s likely to be a very difficult time for the stock market, I’m looking for stronger companies to invest in.

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