2 dividend shares that could provide some shelter from the market storm

During volatile times, investors naturally gravitate towards safer options and reducing exposure to high-risk growth stocks. Mature dividend shares are one avenue where potential shelter can be found during uncertain times. Of course, this doesn’t mean simply buying any stock that pays out income. But in being selective in the sector and type of company, here are a couple I believe are worth considering.

The light bulb moment

The first company is National Grid (LSE:NG). The electricity and gas utility provider has a dividend yield of 5.86%. Over the past year, the stock is up 4%.

The provision of essential utilities to businesses and personal consumers means that demand should remain strong regardless of what happens with either the global or domestic economy. The fallout from the tariff announcement shouldn’t impact operations. It’s true that the business does have some US assets (which are being sold), but these are not export-driven, so the impact of tariffs won’t matter. In fact, it has minimal exposure to physical goods that are subject to trade barriers. I think this is a positive right now.

The mature firm has been paying out continuous dividends for over two decades. Even though the exact dividend per share does change over time, the fact that management hasn’t cut it completely, even during events like the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, boosts confidence.

One risk is the £60bn, five-year capital investment plan that’s currently underway. Even though this could be good years down the line, it can act to drain cash flow and put a strain on resources right now and in the next couple of years.

Strong finances driving confidence

A second idea is Legal & General (LSE:LGEN). The financial services giant boasts a 9.82% dividend yield, although the share price has fallen by 11% over the last year.

The 2024 annual results that came out last month showed continued strong performance. Core operating profit rose 6% versus last year, hitting £1.62bn. As part of the profit bump, it increased the dividend payment by 5%, with a bold intention to return more than £5bn (or around 40% of the current market cap) within three years to shareholders. Some of this will be via share buybacks, but some will come through higher dividends.

It’s true that the company has limited exposure to global supply chains or US goods trade. Tariffs are irrelevant to its core business. However, it’s involved in investment management. So with stock and bond markets having a tough time, some investors might pull their money out and sit in cash. This would decrease the assets under management and, therefore, the fees and commissions made on that money.

Although that remains a risk going forward, I believe it’s a solid company with an elevated dividend yield. I think both income shares are worth considering right now over some volatile growth stocks.

I’ve been snapping up shares in this 11.6% yielding FTSE 250 growth stock

More often than not, when the dividend yield on a stock hits north of 10%, a cut the dividend follows. I am not so sure this will be the case for this FTSE 250 stock.

Leading asset manager

The aberdeen group (LSE: ABDN) share price has had a torrid few years. Rising outflows from the asset manager’s funds had seen its portfolio of assets shrink. However, in FY 2024, the business seems to have turned the tide. Assets under management and administration are up 3% to £511.4bn. Group outflows fell a whopping 96% to only £1.1bn.

Along with the news that it was bringing back the vowels to its name, brokers suddenly turned bullish and the price rose. Of course, its given up all those gains over the last few days. However, I don’t believe the underlying fundamentals of the business have changed at all. Indeed, tariffs could strengthen its business model.

Active investment

One of the key reasons for aberdeen’s poor performance over the past few years is the rise of passive investing strategies. Unless a portfolio manager was invested in the Magnificent 7, they had no chance of beating the market.

However, the woeful performance of the Nasdaq and mega-cap tech stocks so far this year is likely to accelerate a move back into active investment management.

It’s not just tariffs that are upending the global order. Globalisation has been going into reverse for some time as protectionism and nationalist agendas sweep across Europe and the US.

On top of that, mounting geopolitical risks and war in Europe have brought home to many governments the importance of supply chain resilience.

The list goes on and on. The point is this. The days when investors could just invest in an index and set-and-forget are over. What is needed now is astute investment strategies that are able to take into consideration all these macroeconomic factors. And aberdeen is an undoubted leader in this space.

Juicy dividend

I am a firm believer that the primary way to generate wealth over the long term is through picking businesses that pay sustainable, market-beating dividend yields.

With aberdeen’s headline-grabbing 11.6% yield on offer, an investor would double their money in less than eight years if dividends are reinvested. That is assuming no share price appreciation or dividend cut.

So, is this dividend safe? Adjusted capital generation of £307m means that cover is only 1.2 times, below my preferred cover of 2. The business intends to freeze the dividend at 14.6p per share until it is covered at least 1.5 times by adjusted capital generation.

It has set a conservative target of growing net capital generation by 26% by 2026. Now that it has swung back into profit, it bodes well on meeting such a target.

Asset businesses are directly exposed to the vagaries of markets. Heightened volatility means its funds could witness large drawdowns. Also, if tariffs do result in inflation, interest rates could remain elevated and people may decide to put their cash in savings accounts instead of the market.

However, as its share price sits at an all-time low, I have been buying. I think my future self will thank me.

I asked ChatGPT which FTSE 100 stocks are screaming buys for Trump’s tariff war. Here’s what it said

Goodness, it’s grim out there. As I type, the FTSE 100 is having another awful day thanks to the trade war instigated by President Trump. It’s now down almost 7% in 2025 so far.

As dispiriting as that might be, I always regard such falls as an opportunity to snap up great stocks at a discount with the intention of building wealth over the long term. That’s what being a Fool is all about.

But buying when everyone else seems to be selling is all easier said than done, of course. And then there’s the question of which particular stocks to go for.

For a bit of fun, I decided to ask ChatGPT.

Potential safe havens

One sector highlighted as somewhere to go hunting was precious metal miners. As the huge gains seen in the gold price in recent weeks show, the shiny stuff has long been regarded as a safe haven by investors in times of trouble. For this reason, Fresnillo could be worth pondering. The £6bn cap is one of Mexico’s largest gold producers (and the world’s leading silver producer). Tellingly, its share price is actually up today (9 April)!

Another sector that cropped up was Aerospace and Defence. From the FTSE 100, we’re talking BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce. Again, I understand the logic behind this. With relations between nations frosty to say the least — not to mention the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia — it looks likely that defence spending is only going in one direction. However, it’s worth noting that these shares have been very volatile of late, probably due to some swift profit-taking.

Great opportunity?

Perhaps the AI bot’s most interesting suggestion, however, was healthcare stocks. Again, this seems logical. As simplistic an investment case as it may be, there will always be demand for vaccines and treatments.

Then again, it’s just been announced that Donald Trump is planning for a “major” tariff on all pharmaceutical imports. This helps to explain why one of the UK’s largest players — GSK (LSE: GSK) — is suffering today.

Although this would represent a clear risk to the company, I’d be staggered if this came to pass. The supply chain in this sector is fiendishly complex and any radical changes (e.g. setting up factories in the US) would take a long time to implement due to regulatory hurdles. This could lead to drug shortages and/or substantially higher prices in the interim, placing lives at risk.

Taking this into account, I agree that GSK is worthy of consideration, especially as its shares already traded at less than eight times forecast earnings before markets opened.

Prior to the tariff war erupting, trading looked healthy too. In February, CEO Emma Walmsley announced that Q4 sales had beaten estimates. The firm’s 2031 sales target was also lifted to over £40bn.

Safety in numbers

ChatGPT can’t predict the future or know my personal risk tolerance and financial circumstances. This being the case, I would never buy a slice of GSK or anything else based purely on what it spews out. I see it as one of many research options, nothing more.

Even so, I fully intend on using others’ fear to my advantage on days like this and, to quote Warren Buffett, load up on ‘quality merchandise’ while I can.

Analysts now expect up to 4 UK rate cuts this year! Here’s what it could mean for the FTSE 100 index

Given the volatile swings in the stock market over the past couple of weeks, it hasn’t been surprising that most investors have been glued to watching the FTSE 100 index. Yet the bond market has been shifting a lot as well. UK Government bond prices give an indication of where people expect interest rates to be later this year. Using that and updated analyst forecasts, there’s a key takeaway for stock investors.

Thinking it all through

Short-term UK Government bond yields have dropped sharply. When I look at UK index swaps, the implied UK interest rate for the end of this year indicates that the market expects four 0.25% rate cuts. This ties in with some analyst expectations I’ve seen. Some looking for three or more rate cuts from the Bank of England committee.

The shift in expectations shouldn’t come as a surprise. It’s because of the recent US tariff announcement. The potential shock that this could cause to both the global economy and the UK economy means that some investors are getting a bit spooked. This is evident from the fall in the FTSE 100 and is also reflected in the bond market.

However, the increased likelihood of sharp rate cuts later this year could act as support in the coming months for the stock market. Lower interest rates help boost economic growth. They provide people with less incentive to save and more to spend. For companies, it means that loans and new debt become cheaper. This can be used to help fuel expansion and new projects. Although it isn’t always the case, cutting interest rates is usually followed by a growth period in the economy and a rising stock market.

A British case study

In order to find stocks for my watchlist, the main criteria here is finding ideas that could benefit the most from a big drop in the base rate. One that is worth investor consideration is Severn Trent (LSE:SVT). The water and wastewater service provider operates mainly in the Midlands and Wales.

Over the past year, the stock has risen 6%. Operations are relatively straightforward, but the company has a high debt load due to infrastructure spending projects. Some might see this as a risk. The latest half-year results showed that net financing costs for debt totalled £124.6m! The revenue for this period was just over £1.2bn, so a good chunk of this went towards servicing the cost of finance.

However, a reduction in the base rate would lower the cost of debt and could boost investor optimism. The improved cash flow may mean some of the money could be used to pay down some borrowings or put towards other growth opportunities.

Further, Severn Trent only operates in the UK. Therefore, it’s not exposed to US tariffs in the same way that more international FTSE 100 companies could be.

If we start to hear more chatter about rate cuts becoming a reality, I think it could act to spark a relief rally in the market, boosting stocks like Severn Trent.

The JD Sports share price is up 10% on today’s upbeat results but still dirt cheap with a P/E of just 5.2!

Finally, some good news for my portfolio and from a surprising source – the JD Sports Fashion (LSE: JD) share price.

Shares in the FTSE 100-listed trainer and athleisure giant have had a dismal time of it over the past two years. They’ve halved in value, dogged by a string of profit warnings, margin pressures, struggling consumers and rising costs. 

Throw in the recent shock of Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, which could impact US and European brands alike, and it’s been a painful hold.

Despite buying after the first profit warning and averaging down on three separate occasions, I’m left with a 40% loss. Over 12 months, the stock is down 50%.

Can this FTSE 100 stock fly off the blocks?

So imagine my surprise when I logged into my portfolio and saw JD shares had jumped almost 10% after what markets see as an encouraging trading update.

JD reported organic revenue growth of 5.8% for the full year, helped by solid sales in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific. 

That was ahead of guidance – a rare bright spot. Its new acquisitions, Hibbett and Courir, are performing as expected, while full-year profits before tax are expected to land within the January guidance range of £915m to £935m.

Gross margins were down 20 basis points to 47.8%, reflecting the impact of acquisitions, and Q4 like-for-like sales growth was just 0.3%. That’s hardly electrifying, but steady in today’s testing retail climate.

Looking ahead to the new financial year, the firm expects to keep profits in line with forecasts, though it’s bracing for a bumpiness. 

Costs are rising – especially staff after April’s national insurance and minimum wage hikes – and there’s no clear view on what impact tariffs might have. JD’s guidance excludes those unknowns but investors must take them into account.

Even so, the group plans to open 150 new stores and upgrade 100 more, while closing about 50 underperformers, mainly in Eastern Europe. It also announced a £100m share buyback, suggesting management sees value in the current share price.

I can see plenty of value too – the problem is that I’ve been wrong before.

The shares are still dirt cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of just 5.2. That’s low for a business with JD’s scale, international reach and long-term brand partnerships, even in today’s mad world.

Growth, buybacks and a low valuation

Analysts seem to agree. The 17 experts who’ve published one-year price forecasts for JD have come up with a median target of 118p. If they’re right, that would be a jump of around 70%% from today.

Forecasts are only ever guesses – and most of these will predate Trump turmoil. In today’s chaotic environment, a retailer reliant on international trade is sitting right in the line of fire. Still, it shows the potential.

I won’t be buying more shares myself. I’ve got plenty of exposure and there are other opportunities I want to chase. 

Today’s update has reminded me why I bought in the first place, and why I still see long-term promise in the stock.

For anyone prepared to cope with tariff uncertainty, JD Sports shares could be worth considering. Just maybe don’t rush in right away. They’ve bounced hard today, and there’s almost certainly more ups and downs ahead.

Cheaper by a third, is Apple stock now a bargain?

Since the last week of December, the value of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has slumped. In fact, during that period, the Apple stock price has dropped by a third.

Still, the tech giant’s shares are slightly higher than they were a year ago – and 157% up over the past five years.

Is the recent fall a good opportunity to add the shares back into my portfolio? Or might they still be overvalued, given the strong five-year performance?

Looking to the long term

I mentioned above that I am looking for a chance to add Apple stock back to my portfolio if I can do so at the right price.

I have owned shares in the tech giant before and continue to think it is an outstanding company.

It operates in a market that is huge and likely to get even bigger over time. By developing a limited portfolio of premium-priced products, Apple has been able to achieve high profit margins. A unique brand and proprietary technology combined with an ecosystem of services has helped build customer loyalty.

The recent fall reflects what I see as real risks. Tariffs could eat into Apple’s juicy profit margins, while lower-cost Chinese competitors may be able to take some of its market share as the economy falters.

I see these as relatively short- or medium-term challenges, though. As a long-term investor, I continue to see Apple as an excellent business with strong competitive advantages.

Great business, not yet an attractive price

I may be wrong about that. Whenever buying a share, I aim to pay a price that I think offers me some margin of safety in case I have underestimated the risks involved.

When it comes to Apple stock right now, it is still not yet at an attractive enough price for me to be comfortable buying.

That is not because I think it may have further to fall based on recent stock market nervousness. That does not bother me, if I am confident enough in the long-term investment case.

Rather, my concern is about the price compared to what I think the business is worth.

At the moment, Apple trades on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27. Yes, there is a dividend as well, but as the yield is 0.6%, that has little bearing on my calculation of value.

A P/E ratio of 27 strikes me as high even for a company of Apple’s quality. I do not feel it offers me sufficient margin of safety for the risks the business faces.

Apple’s net income has fallen for the past two years in a row. The latest risks emerging from US trade policy could mean another drop this year and perhaps beyond.

While profits remain huge and margins attractive, this is not a fast-growing company that I think merits a large growth premium. It is a successful but mature business that has its work cut out just to maintain earnings at their current level in a fast-changing environment.

If the price is right, I will buy Apple stock again in a heartbeat. For now,though, I still see it as overpriced.

Up 60%! See the stunning easyJet share price forecast for 2025

The easyJet (LSE: EZJ) share price was already struggling before the recent market meltdown. Inevitably, things have only got worse.

After a bleak few years for the travel sector, 2024 looked like it might mark a turning point. It certainly was for rival FTSE 100 carrier International Consolidated Airlines Group, whose shares doubled last year as international travel roared back.

Yet easyJet shares remained firmly on the tarmac, with revenues and profits lagging behind. The budget airline’s core market is Europe, and the continent’s economy has been under something of a cloud.

EasyJet’s Q1 update, published on 22 January, didn’t offer much cheer. While passenger numbers rose 7%, and group revenues climbed 13% to £2.04bn, other metrics disappointed.

Can this FTSE 100 stock fly again?

Revenue per seat came in just under expectations at £74.36 (analysts were hoping for £75), and the airline still posted a pre-tax loss of £61m. That was a step forward from the £126m loss a year earlier, but not enough to lift the mood.

By contrast, IAG looked better placed to benefit from boom in transatlantic demand, thanks to subsidiary British Airways. But that was before Donald Trump’s new tariffs rattled markets.

Over the past month, the easyJet share price has dropped 12%. Interestingly, IAG shares have fallen twice as much — down 25%. That’s partly because investor expectations were higher, and the disappointment more acute.

Hopes of a transatlantic travel surge are quickly fading, as Trump takes a more isolationist stance on trade. A US recession won’t help. Nor will a global one.

Over 12 months, easyJet shares are down 24%, while IAG is still up 35%, reflecting how well it was performing before the latest turbulence.

If I had a direct line to Trump and he told me he was scrapping every tariff tomorrow, IAG would be the first FTSE 100 stock I’d buy. If today’s worries do subside, it could soar.

But I don’t have that hotline — and I doubt this crisis will blow over that easily. So while I’m cautious on IAG for now, I’m seriously tempted by easyJet.

High potential growth but high risk too

Its European focus might offer some shelter from global trade rows, though it won’t be without turbulence. Increased Middle East tensions or a squeeze on household budgets could hit short-haul travel hard.

I’m also intrigued to see whether the growing pushback against overtourism in Europe dents demand for cheap, short-hop breaks.

Even so, easyJet shares look strikingly cheap, trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of just 7.1. That’s low for a business with a strong brand, solid balance sheet and a fast-growing holiday arm.

The 20 analysts covering the stock have a median one-year forecast of just under 695p. If that proves right, we’re talking about a stunning 60% jump from today’s level.

Now, forecasts are never to be relied upon — and especially not in times like these. Many were likely made before recent market shocks.

But to me, that suggests there’s potential here and easyJet is worth considering, but with one big proviso. It still faces plenty of bumps. As does every single stock today.

The BP share price hits a 3-year low. Time to buy?

It has not been an easy few years to be a shareholder in oil major BP (LSE: BP). The company has made strategic U-turns over whether it even wanted to be an oil major. Five years ago it slashed its dividend. Meanwhile, the BP share price has this week hit a three-year low.

Indeed, the share has lost 18% in value so far in 2025 alone.

That is despite hopes in the City that a campaign by an activist US hedge fund would help to drive the price in the other direction.

The company has badly lagged peers in recent years. The share price has fallen 1% in five years. During that time, Shell has soared 52% and US rival ExxonMobil is up 134%.

BP still has lots to like

The reasons for that relative underperformance make sense to me.

While Shell also cut its dividend in 2020, ExxonMobil has continued its decades-long streak of annual increases in the annual payout per share.

BP has been the least committed of the three to making oil and gas the centrepiece of its future business strategy. Although it has now backtracked on its approach and reverted to being clear about the ongoing importance of oil to its business, investors did not like the potential for a lower-margin business. The strategic about-turns have raised questions about the quality of BP management. Along the way the former chief executive resigned (the chairman is also heading for the exit).

But stepping aside from the short-term history, what about the thing I think matters from an investment perspective: the long-term outlook?

Here, I believe BP looks more promising. It has large reserves, long experience in the oil business and an extensive global distribution network.

Potential value over the long term

On that basis, I think the current share price could be a potential bargain for my portfolio.

Not only that, but the current low share price means that the FTSE 100 share now offers a dividend yield of 7.3%. So, even if it took years for the share price to move up meaningfully (if it does), I could be rewarded for my patience with a juicy yield, as long as the dividend is not cut again.

However, for now at least I see shares I like more elsewhere in the market, so have no plans to buy BP for my portfolio at this moment.

The past few years of management dithering have shaken my confidence in the company and I see a risk that such a corporate culture could continue to lead to poor performance.

Meanwhile, energy price volatility is a risk to profits, albeit one that could go the other way too: rising prices could help boost profits. Times of economic uncertainty can lead to volatile prices for energy especially if demand falls and I see a risk of that happening.

Last week, Rolls-Royce shares were the most popular on this investor platform. But there’s a catch!

During the week ended 4 April, of all UK stocks, Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) shares were the post popular among users of the Hargreaves Lansdown trading platform. Of the number of orders that were placed to buy shares, 2.38% were for the British engineering-cum-technology group. The value of these trades was 3% of all funds invested.

It’s not known when these deals were placed. But I suspect the majority of them were at the end of the week, when the stock suffered heavy losses as investors struggled to come to terms with the implications of President Trump’s tariffs.

I reckon many saw the share price pullback as an opportunity to buy a stock that’s continued to perform strongly since the pandemic.

Rolls-Royce shares closed the week at 659p. They were last at this level in February. And despite recovering a little — as I write on 9 April, the stock’s changing hands for 659.2p — they remain comfortably below their 52-week high achieved on 19 March.

On the other hand…

But dig a little deeper and a slightly different story emerges.

Among Hargreaves Lansdown’s clients, it was also the most sold stock, accounting for 3.17% of all sales orders, and 4.8% of the total value of these transactions.

It could be that some shareholders have decided to cash out after making some substantial gains.

Alternatively, it might be that the stock is a favourite of those who hold shares only for a few weeks (or days) in the hope of making a quick profit. But this isn’t investing, it’s speculating.

As Warren Buffett said in his 1989 letter to Berkshire Hathaway’s shareholders: “Our favourite holding period is forever”. And ‘his’ company hasn’t done too badly from following this approach — it’s now worth over $1trn!

In my opinion, those prepared to hold Rolls-Royce shares for several years could also be handsomely rewarded.

Growth prospects

In 2024, the group made an underlying operating profit of £2.5bn. By 2028, it’s expecting this to grow to £3.6bn-£3.9bn. Using the mid-point of this range, it implies an increase of 50%.

If achieved, earnings per share (EPS) will be close to 33p. At the moment, the stock trades on approximately 33 times its 2024 EPS. If this valuation multiple was maintained for the next three years or so, the share price could theoretically hit £11 by 2028.

And this could happen if the group grows as anticipated. That’s because most investors are looking at a company’s future prospects rather than what it’s achieved in the past.

But it’s important not to get too carried away.

Not least because President Trump may have thrown a spanner in the works. If there’s a global recession then the earnings figures referred to above are unlikely to be accurate. And air travel is particularly sensitive to a global slowdown. Fewer flights mean lower engine flying hours and less revenue for Rolls-Royce.

However, those investors looking to acquire shares in a quality company with an excellent reputation — at 18% less than where they were trading three weeks ago — could consider buying the stock.

Here’s how to start investing with £500 as the stock market tumbles

A lot of people start investing when the stock market is already riding high, hoping that it can keep moving higher and they will build wealth. But that can risk buying shares that are already overpriced.

By contrast, I think a stock market slump can be a good time to start investing, as some high-quality shares may be available at what later turn out to be bargain prices.

That can take nerves, as although a share may have tumbled in price already, it can keep falling further. But as a believer in long-term investing, I reckon this can potentially help an investor start building wealth, even when they have only a modest amount to invest.

Starting small makes sense

An alternative for a would-be investor is to wait until they have more money saved to invest. But that could mean sitting out of the stock market for years, potentially missing out on some great opportunities.

Starting investing on a smaller scale also means that any beginner’s mistakes will hopefully be less costly.

Hunting for value in a volatile market

Such mistakes can be made at any time. That includes during the sort of turbulent stock market we have seen lately.

For example, a company can be what is known as a value trap. Its share price may look cheap compared to its historic business performance. But that performance may be at an end, meaning that although the share price has fallen a long way, it will not recover.

Fortunately, although a stock market correction can throw up some value traps, it may also offer some genuine bargains.

Quality on sale

For example, one share I think investors should consider amid the current turbulence is ITV (LSE: ITV). The share price has struggled over the past five years as investors fret about the impact of digital broadcasting on the company. Over the past five years, the ITV share price has fallen 9%.

But its legacy broadcasting business continues to do well even though audiences are in long-term decline. ITV has also put a lot of effort over the past several years into expanding its digital operations. That could mean that, over the long term, it can continue to generate sizeable revenues from advertising.

On top of that, the company has a studios business that rents out production facilities and expertise. So while rivals like Netflix can pose a risk to revenues in one part of ITV’s business, they can actually be a boost to another part.

ITV has a dividend yield of 7.2%. If it maintains this (something that is never guaranteed), it means £100 invested today ought to generate £7.20 of passive income annually.

Seizing the moment

No matter how much is invested, risk management is important. I think someone who starts investing even with £500 ought to diversify across several different shares, at least.

Fees and costs can also eat into returns, so it pays to spend time choosing the most suitable share-dealing account or Stocks and Shares ISA.

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