Some people have been vocal recently about the fact that the current stock market rally doesn’t seem to be reflecting the actual state of the UK economy. This comes after we recently hit fresh record highs on the FTSE 100. So to address if there’s the case for a looming stock market crash, I turned to artificial intelligence (AI) for an answer, asking ChatGPT if a fall was indeed coming. Here’s what it said!

Reasons for concern

It started off by telling me that predicting a stock market crash is inherently uncertain. This is correct, as no one (not even AI) can predict the future. However, it then went on to explain why there could be vulnerabilities in the market due to several factors.

It flagged the impact of an economic slowdown. This could be made worse due to interest rates staying higher for longer this year. Many of us (myself included) thought the base rate would fall quickly in the first half of this year. Yet expectations have changed significantly, mostly due to concerns that the battle with inflation might not be over. ChatGPT noted that persistently high inflation has eroded disposable income, which is negatively impacting sectors that are reliant on consumer demand.

A good point made was on the global influences to the market. Escalating conflicts or trade tensions could disrupt markets and trigger risk aversion among investors. With the new US President threatening (and already implementing) tariffs, there could be disruption for companies, even the ones listed in the UK. Let’s also not forget that the UK market often follows the US market. Recent fears about AI becoming a bubble could cause American stocks to fall, having a knock-on impact to Britain.

Targeting value

Despite these concerns raised, investors can still find some opportunities via buying value stocks. If a stock’s cheap now, it could be less impacted if a crash comes, given the existing valuation. For example, a stock for consideration is Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO). The global commodity giant has a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.57. This is below the fair value benchmark figure of 10 I use, potentially indicating it’s cheap right now.

The share price has fallen 9% over the last year. Declining iron ore and copper prices haven’t helped, as the business ultimately is selling the produce for less now than a year back. This remains a risk going forward. Natural disasters were another factor, with a cyclone causing significant flooding and damage at Rio Tinto’s facility in Australia.

However, green shoots emerging from China should help the stock going forward. The country’s a large consumer of iron ore, so an economic bump could see a surge in demand. There’s also rumours of a merger deal with Glencore. Although nothing’s been confirmed, this would create a powerhouse commodity player, something which I expect would send the share price higher.

Nothing’s certain

ChatGPT concluded by saying that although it sees risks that could trigger a downturn, a crash isn’t inevitable. I agree. When navigating uncertainty, I’ll keep investing and ensure I keep the right long-term investment perspective.

Dr Martens‘ (LSE:DOCS) share price fell over 3% early today (27 January) after the company released a trading update for the 13 weeks ended 31 December.

This is despite the chief executive of the FTSE 250 legend saying that the group’s performance during the period was “as expected”. Encouragingly, he reported that the outlook for the year ending 31 March (FY25) was “unchanged”.

Good progress was reported in turning around the business in the United States. Revenue from sales made directly to consumers (DTC) was up 4% in constant currency terms, compared to the same period a year ago.

The best-performing region was Asia Pacific, particularly Japan. Overall, direct to consumer revenue in the territory was up 17%, versus 12 months earlier.

However, in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), it fell 5%. The company said there was significant discounting in several markets which it refused to copy.

Devil in the detail

But the reporting of revenue in constant currency terms, and focusing on DTC sales, can be unintentionally misleading. Taking into account foreign exchange movements and considering all types of sales – including those through third parties – overall revenue was 3% lower compared to the same period in 2023.

Using the same measure, sales in the Americas and EMEA were both down 4%. But Asia Pacific revenue was still higher, albeit by a more modest 6%.

Perhaps this explains why investors didn’t appear too impressed by the group’s Q3 performance. While useful for making direct comparisons between periods, removing the effects of currency movements doesn’t reflect reality. International businesses have to deal with fluctuating currencies and manage the associated risks. When the company’s FY25 accounts are published later this year, Dr Martens statutory results will have to reflect this.

However, taking into account foreign exchange movements, wholesale revenues across the group were 3% higher. Other ‘positives’ in the statement included confirmation that the business continues to “actively manage our costs” (shouldn’t all companies do that?) and that it was “on track” to reduce stock levels.

The elephant in the room

But the statement failed to address a potentially devastating issue for the company. Should President Trump go ahead and carry through on his threat (promise?) to apply significant import taxes on goods brought into the United States from Asia, it would have huge adverse consequences for Dr Martens.

That’s because the group has manufacturing operations in China, Vietnam, Laos, and Thailand. This makes it particularly vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs. During FY24, the Americas contributed 37% to revenue.

Although I think Dr Martens has lots going for it — it’s an iconic brand with a global following – I believe this issue is too big to ignore. And I suspect this uncertainty could weigh on the company’s share price. Although given the speed at which Trump’s implementing executive orders, I don’t think it’ll be too long before the company (and its long-suffering shareholders) will know where it stands.

At this point, I’ll revisit the investment case.

Whenever I spot a top FTSE 100 income stock with a double-digit yield, I reach from my crash helmet. How can a company afford to pay so much cash to shareholders year after year? The answer is, they usually don’t.

FTSE 100 blue-chips Persimmon, Rio Tinto and Vodafone have all slashed their dividends in recent years, after the yields got out of hand.

Given my concerns, why on earth did I buy shares insurance conglomerate Phoenix Group Holdings (LSE: PHNX) on two occasions last year?

Can the Phoenix Group share price finally fly?

It’s a funny stock, Phoenix. It seemed to rise from nowhere. The name doesn’t ring bells, although one or two of its brands do, notably Standard Life and SunLife. 

Yet today, it’s able to call itself “the UK’s largest long-term savings and retirement business”, based on its 12m customers and £290bn of assets under management. Although given that Legal & General Group manages a whopping £1.2trn, I think there’s a discussion to be had over size. I’ll stay out of that.

The last few years have been tough on FTSE financials, which have been knocked by stock market volatility and high interest rates. The Phoenix share price has dropped 33% over five years. It’s flat over 12 months. Which largely explains why it offers the highest yield on the FTSE 100, at 10.34%.

Legal & General’s in a similar position. Its shares have fallen 24% over three years. The trailing yield’s 8.66%. The whole sector’s due a re-rating. I think it will come when interest rates fall.

As investors get lower yields from cash and bonds, they’ll be more willing to chance their capital on shares like Phoenix to secure a higher rate of income. Having said that, there’s no guarantee interest rates will fall. They’re proving sticky today.

Phoenix generates substantial cash flows from its established portfolio of life insurance policies, which is vital to funding shareholder payouts. It generated £950m of cash in the first half of 2024, and is on track to hit £1.4bn-£1.5bn over the full year. 

Yet Phoenix also reported a £88m IFRS loss after tax in 2023, which followed an even bigger £2.7bn loss in 2022. The company attributed this to market volatility, which hit its hedging positions.

It’s hard to look past that dividend

The board labels its dividend policy “progressive and sustainable” and analysts seem to believe in it. Phoenix is forecast to yield 10.7% this year, and 11% in 2026. If that continues, I’d double my money in less than seven years from dividends alone.

I’m sticking with my Phoenix shares but it’s odd holding a stock that looks like an unmissable bargain but keeps going nowhere. Why isn’t everybody snapping up this opportunity?

The shares don’t even look expensive, trading at 15.33 times trailing earnings. Am I missing something? It’s possible.

But I think its failure to grow is down to inflation and interest rates. When they fall, I’d expect the Phoenix share price to spread its wings. I may have to be patient, but while I wait, I’ll reinvest every penny of that super-generous yield.

Lloyds‘ (LSE: LLOY) shares remain a popular investment. It seems that investors are drawn to the low share price, dividend income, and the fact that the stock remains miles off its highs.

The shares haven’t been a good long-term investment though. Had an investor put £5,000 into them a decade ago, they’d probably be pretty disappointed today…

The share price hasn’t gone up!

On 26 January 2015, Lloyds shares closed the day at 76p. So let’s say the investor picked up £5k worth of shares at that price. Ignoring trading commissions, they’d have got 6,578 shares.

Now, on Friday (24 January), Lloyds’ share price ended the day at 61.8p. That’s 18.7% lower than the price 10 years ago. This means those 6,578 shares would now be worth £4,065.

That translates to a loss of roughly £935. Ouch!

Dividends change things

This doesn’t tell the full story though. Because Lloyds has paid dividends for a large part of the decade. I crunched the numbers and found that over the 10-year period, Lloyds paid out a total of 22.7p in dividends. Therefore, with 6,578 shares, the investor would have picked up income of around £1,493.

So including dividend income, the investor would have made a profit. Overall, their £5,000 would have grown to £5,558 – an 11% gain.

That’s better than a loss, obviously. But it isn’t a good return over a decade. Especially when you consider inflation over this period. At one stage during that period, inflation was running at over 10%.

The cost of holding on to Lloyds

It’s also really disappointing when you consider the returns from some other investments. Had the investor put £5,000 into London Stock Exchange Group shares (one of my favourite UK shares), that money would now be worth over £25,000. Had they put £5,000 into Apple shares (which are listed in the US), that money would now be worth over £47,000.

Even if they had simply lumped the money in a global tracker fund, they’d now have nearly £15,000. So the ‘opportunity cost’ of holding on to Lloyds shares for the long term has been huge.

I’ll be buying other shares

Now, investing’s a forward-looking pursuit, of course. And looking ahead, Lloyds shares could perform better over the next 10 years than they have over the last.

Today, the shares offer an attractive dividend yield of about 5.3%. That alone could generate solid returns (although dividends are never guaranteed and Lloyds has cut its dividend in the past).

The stock’s poor long-term track record spooks me however. So does the outlook for the bank, given the weak UK economy and the huge amount of disruption in banking today.

So I won’t be buying them any time soon. I think there are much better stocks to snap up for my portfolio today.

Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LSE:SMT) shares are an excellent way to gain exposure to growth-oriented companies. The trust is diversified and its managers have an excellent track record of picking the next big winner. Of course, given the fact that it’s investing in growth-focused companies, it can be quite volatile, but the long-term returns have been very impressive. It’s up around 340% over 10 years and 2,665% since 1993.

So, what’s the exciting alternative to think about? Well, it’s another Baillie Gifford-managed trust. And it’s called Edinburgh Worldwide Investment Trust (LSE:EWI). This global investment trust typically focuses on smaller and entrepreneurial companies. Management’s previous policy was to make the first investment in these companies when their market value was under $5bn. But that was recently upped to $25bn to provide more opportunities.

What does it invest in?

The Edinburgh Worldwide portfolio contains a blend of listed and unlisted holdings, with its top two positions — SpaceX (12.3%) and PsiQuantum (7.5%) — comprising nearly 20% of total assets. While these innovative private companies present significant growth potential. their lack of financial transparency — only listed companies need to publish earnings — and presumed pre-profit nature adds a layer of risk.

The remainder of the top 10 includes holdings in sectors like biotechnology (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Exact Sciences, Oxford Nanopore), technology (Zillow, Doximity), and defense (Axon Enterprise, AeroVironment). Together, the top 10 positions represent 42.8% of the portfolio. This means its investments are more concentrated than Scottish Mortgage. This mix could offer outsized returns but requires an appetite for higher risk and volatility.

I also appreciate that none of these companies are household names, perhaps with the exception of SpaceX. This reinforces the risk/reward nature of the trust. These are high-potential companies, which may become the household names of tomorrow. By comparison, Scottish Mortgage’s top holdings also include well-known companies like Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, and even Ferrari. It’s also worth noting that SpaceX is Scottish Mortgage’s largest holding as well.

Diversification is still key

Baillie Gifford has an excellent track record and its trusts are some of the most popular in the UK. Moreover, Edinburgh Worldwide shares are currently trading at a 7.1% discount to the net asset value (NAV) of the trust. The NAV is the reported value of all the the fund’s holdings. As such, a discount is highly attractive.

However, Edinburgh Worldwide’s high-risk, high-reward profile may make it unsuitable as a sole investment, but it could be a valuable addition to a cautious portfolio. Its focus on innovative, growth-oriented companies offers diversification and the potential for outsized returns.

Moreover, investors should also consider their time horizon. Edinburgh Worldwide will likely demonstrate more volatility than Scottish Mortgage. The long-run trajectory may be upwards, but the could be lots of bumps on the way.

Many people have fantastical dreams of earning passive income and retiring early into a life of luxury. And understandably so. No more boss to answer to, no more annoying emails… there’s a reason it’s called a dream!

But for many, it seldom goes any further than that. The reality is that few people ever achieve a steady and reliable stream of passive income. Yet social media would have us believe it’s within everyone’s grasp.

So why do so few people gain this type of financial independence at an early age?

While there’s no scientific answer, anecdotal evidence suggests most people have unrealistic expectations and lack patience. They expect quick results and substantial returns within a short period, underestimating the time, effort and discipline needed to build a sustainable income. When immediate returns don’t materialise, they become discouraged and abandon their goals.

The truth is, passive income isn’t some magic trick or get-rich-quick scheme. There are no shortcuts. Like everything in life, the reward is only equal to the effort put in. Fortunately, with a bit of planning, there are ways to minimise the potential for failure.

Five steps to success

• Formulate a clear plan: this is the foundation and is critical to the success of all other steps
• Put in the work: hours of research should be dedicated to each and every investment decision
• Be realistic: overestimating potential returns or underestimating upfront investments can lead to frustration
• Be consistent: stick to the regular monthly contributions by prioritising them over unnecessary expenses
• Trust the process: markets are volatile, prompting investors to panic sell. It’s critical to control emotions and have faith in the plan

Investing for passive income

The steps mentioned above can be applied to the goal of achieving passive income by investing in stocks. Research, planning and regular contributions are key — not to mention a lot of patience.

When picking stocks, there are several key metrics to check before making a decision. For example, consider 3i Group (LSE: III), the top-performing stock on the FTSE 100 over the past five years. 

The private equity and venture capital firm invests in various companies, most notably the European discount store chain Action. Its historical performance is good but it’s not enough to go on alone. Investors can assess its potential for stable income by checking its dividend history, financial results and valuation.

At first glance, its dividend yield seems low, at only 1.7%. However, payments are consistent and have been growing at a rate of 32% a year since 2010. In the past, the yield’s often been 3-4%.

Since 2019, earnings have increased considerably, from £214m to £3.84bn in 2023. However in 2023, earnings missed analysts’ expectations by 5.97%. This was attributed to increased costs and a challenging macroeconomic environment. These problems may continue to pose risks, along with supply chain issues and exchange rate fluctuations.

Upcoming earnings are expected to rise 20% for the 2024 full year, due by the end of March. And despite the price rising 58% in the past year, it’s only 8.8 times earnings — suggesting room for more growth.

These factors show how 3i could be a stock worth considering as part of a portfolio aimed at passive income.

Investing in individual shares has been the most effective way to play the UK stock market in recent years. By picking stocks, one could have potentially beaten the Footsie by a wide margin. Looking for UK shares to buy in February? Here are three to consider.

An attractive set-up

First up, we have banking giant HSBC (LSE: HSBA). This is my favourite UK bank as it’s global in nature and has significant exposure to high-growth markets.

The set-up here looks attractive right now, in my view.

For a start, the stock is cheap. Currently, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is just eight.

Secondly, there’s an attractive dividend yield on offer. The dividend forecast for 2025 is 65 cents, which puts the yield at a high 6.4%.

Third, the shares are in a strong uptrend. One reason for this is that global banks may face less US regulation under the Trump Administration.

Of course, HSBC’s exposure to China is a risk in the years ahead. Its economy just can’t seem to get out of first gear.

Overall though, I think this stock has a lot going for it.

A Trump play

Another UK stock that could potentially do well while Donald Trump is in the White House is Ashtead (LSE: AHT). It’s a major player in the construction equipment rental business and has significant exposure to the US.

America is going to be doing a ton of building in the years ahead as Trump tries to turbocharge the country’s superpower status. So Ashtead’s construction equipment (which can be used to dig, drill, shift, power, etc.) should be in high demand.

For FY26 (the year ending 30 April 2026), analysts expect revenue and earnings per share growth of 6.3% and 13%, respectively. These forecasts are decent, but I wouldn’t be surprised if numbers come in higher (which could send the share price up).

This stock has experienced a pullback recently as the company advised that near-term earnings were going to be a little lower than previously expected. Further operational weakness in the short term is a possibility.

For long-term investors however, I think this is a good entry point. Currently, the stock trades on a forward-looking P/E ratio of 16, which is reasonable given Ashtead’s amazing long-term track record (it’s one of the best-performing UK stocks over the last 20 years).

A savvy buy

Finally, I like the look of IG Group (LSE: IGG) today. It operates one of the UK’s most popular financial trading platforms.

There are several reasons I’m bullish here. One is that I’m expecting plenty of volatility in the financial markets this year (which should boost trading activity).

Another is that the company just announced the acquisition of Freetrade (for a bargain price of £160m). I think this is a great buy as this investing platform is very popular.

As for IG’s financials, they look attractive to me. Looking at the forecasts for the year ending 31 May 2025, the stock currently trades on a P/E ratio of just 9.9 and offers a dividend yield of 4.7%.

It’s worth noting that IG operates in a competitive industry. So, a risk is that new trading/investment start-ups capture market share.

I like the risk/reward proposition at the current valuation though.

Legal & General shares (LSE: LGEN) remain one of my best holdings for generating dividend income. These already provide me with a better standard of living than I would otherwise have. And I aim to increasingly live off the proceeds while reducing my weekly working commitments.

My only regret is that I did not start investing in such shares even earlier than I did. The more time money has to work in an investment, the greater the opportunity for increased returns.

This also allows for the smoothing out of shorter-term pricing shocks in individual shares and the markets.

Serious dividend income growth

In 2023, Legal & General paid 20.34p a share in dividends. This yields 8.7% on the current share price of £2.35.

So, a 20-year-old investing £5,500 (half the average UK savings amount) in the stock now would make £479 in dividends in year one.

If the yield averaged the same, then after 10 years this would rise to £4,790. And by the time the investor was 50, the dividend income would have increased to £14,370.

This is clearly much more than could be made from a standard UK savings amount,, although it is not guaranteed, unlike interest on savings.

Supercharging those returns

The annual dividend income could be turbocharged using the standard investment practice of dividend compounding. This simply involves reinvesting the dividends paid by a stock straight back into it.

Doing this with the £5,500 Legal & General holding at an average 8.7% would generate £7,587 in dividends after 10 years, not £4,790. And on the same basis, this would have risen to £68,594 after 30 years, rather than £14,370.

Adding in the initial £5,500 investment and the total Legal & General holding would be worth £74,094 by then. So, by the investor’s 50th birthday, this would be generating an annual dividend income of £6,446!

How do the dividend forecasts look?

Earnings growth is ultimately what powers a firm’s dividend (and share price) higher over time.

Analysts forecast that Legal & General’s earnings will increase by a stellar 23.5% a year to end-2027.

Cut-throat competition in the financial services sector may squeeze its earnings and profit margins, of course. Another risk to these is a spike in the cost of living that may prompt some customers to cancel policies.

However, analysts forecast that the firm will pay dividends of 21.8p in 2025, 22.3p in 2026, and 22.6p in 2026.

Based on the current share price, these would generate respective yields of 9.3%, 9.5% and 9.6%.

A potential share price bonus

All my dividend stocks were bought at levels that looked very undervalued to me. This reduces the chance of my making a loss on the share price if I had to sell the stock.

Conversely, of course, it increases the chance that I would make a profit if I had to liquidate the holding.

In Legal & General’s case, a discounted cash flow analysis shows the stock is 61% undervalued at its present £2.35. So, the fair value for the shares is technically £6.03, although they may not reach that level. At the same time, they could go much higher.

Anyhow, given its stunning earnings growth potential and what this could mean for share price and dividend growth, I will be buying more of the stock very soon.

Rolls-Royce’s (LSE: RR) share price is trading around a one-year high of just over £6. But this does not mean there is no value left in it.

Such a rise may signal that a firm is worth more now than before. Or it could be that the market is only just catching up to its true value.

Crucially, in my experience as a former investment bank trader, the higher share price might still not reflect the true worth of a firm.

I took a close look to find out whether this is true for Rolls-Royce.

Is the stock over-, under- or fairly valued?

The first part of my process in evaluating a stock’s pricing is to compare its key valuations to those of its competitors.

On the price-to-earnings ratio, Rolls-Royce trades at 21.6 compared to its competitors’ average of 33.6. This group consists of BAE Systems at 19.8, Northrop Grumman at 29.6, RTX at 34.2, and TransDigm at 50.9. So on this measure, the aerospace, defence and power systems giant is very undervalued.

The same can be said of the price-to-sales ratio, on which it trades at 2.8 against a 3.7 average for its peers.

I ran a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to cut to the chase in this pricing assessment. This indicates where a stock price should be, based on future cash flow forecasts.

Using other analysts’ figures and my own, this shows Rolls-Royce shares are 38% undervalued at their price of £6.05. So a fair value for them is technically £9.76.

This leaves them looking a huge bargain to me, although there is no guarantee that they will reach that price any time soon.

Major new deals coming in

The firm has won three major orders in less than a month.

On 9 January it signed an agreement with Polat Enerji for Turkey’s largest energy storage deal.

Then it won an order for 10 Trent XWB–97 Engines from STARLUX Airlines. December had already seen EuroJet Turbo agree to provide 59 new EJ200 engines for the Spanish Air Force. This engine is a collaboration between Rolls-Royce, MTU Aero Engines, ITP Aero and Avio Aero.

And on Friday (24 January), the UK’s Ministry of Defence awarded a £9bn contract for its nuclear submarine fleet to the firm.

How do the finances look?

Even before these new deals, Rolls-Royce had already significantly upgraded its 2024 guidance. In its 1 August H1 2024 results, the underlying 2024 operating profit forecast was increased to £2.1bn-£2.3bn from £1.7bn-£2bn. And the free cash flow forecast was raised to £2.1bn-£2.2bn from £1.7bn-£1.9bn.

A principal risk to these in my view is that production capacity fails to keep up with such sales growth. Any enduring delays in customer deliveries could damage the firm’s reputation and profits over time.

That said, Rolls-Royce projects £2.5bn-£2.8bn in operating profit and £2.8bn-£3.1bn in free cash flow by 2027.

Will I buy the stock?

I already hold BAE Systems’ shares and adding another stock in the sector would unbalance my portfolio’s risk-reward balance.

However, if I did not have this, I would buy Rolls-Royce shares today without a moment’s hesitation. It looks set for stellar growth over time, which should push its share price much higher, in my view.

Am I the only investor losing money on BAE Systems (LSE: BA) shares? Sometimes it feels like it. The FTSE 100 defence and aerospace manufacturer has had a brilliant run, its shares almost doubling over the last five years (plus dividends on top). Yet after buying them in March and May this year, I quickly found myself sitting on a double-digit loss. 

I managed to buy one of the UK’s most prized growth stocks just as it lost momentum, something I generally try to avoid. Yet in the longer run, I remain optimistic. I plan to hold BAE Systems for years – and ideally decades – so short-term setbacks like this ultimately mean little.

This FTSE 100 growth stock’s fighting back

The BAE Systems share price has climbed on the back of today’s geopolitical uncertainty, as governments ramp up their defence budgets. Need I mention Ukraine, the Middle East, Taiwan?

US President Donald Trump’s putting pressure on NATO members to spend more on their militaries, which should further boost defence spend.

BAE Systems has been lifted by a string of significant contract wins, filling out its already impressive order book. The Tempest fighter jet programme, a collaborative effort between the UK, Italy and Japan, is a biggie. The company’s global footprint also covers the US, Saudi Arabia, and Australia.

The board now expects to hit its upgraded underlying operating earnings growth target of 12-14% this year, pushing last year’s £2.7bn figure beyond £3bn. Debt’s under control. Plus it’s moving into potentially lucrative new areas, such as cyber security as countries look to protect their digital infrastructure.

Yet even defensive stocks can be volatile. If Trump drives through a peace deal in Ukraine, or global tensions ease in some unforeseeable way, the sector could lose some of its shine.

Also there’s a pretty fair chance NATO members won’t spend enough to please Trump. We’re all tight for cash now. Alternatively, a strong pound could hit the value of overseas revenues, knocking profits in sterling terms. I don’t feel that’s a huge risk right now.

The valuation’s a tad high

I think the main reason BAE Systems fell on my watch is that the shares simply became too expensive, trading at around 22 times earnings. Today, they’re a little cheaper at 19.5 times. That’s not excessively expensive, but it’s not a bargain either.

The sad fact is that buying BAE Systems shares is a bet on bad news. I’d happily see my shares tank as the world embraced love, peace and harmony, but I can’t see it happening in my lifetime.

In fact, they’re on the march again. The BAE System share price has climbed 7.4% so far in 2025. Somebody who invested £10,000 at the start of January would have £10,740 today. Over 12 months, they’re up 5%.

My loss is narrowing but what happens next depends on events. Big, deadly, global events. I’ll hold onto my shares through thick and thin. Unless human nature radically changes – and there’s little sign of that – I can’t see this stock going out of fashion.