This FTSE stock tanked 58% last week. But there could be some good news!

It wasn’t a good Valentine’s Day for shareholders in John Wood Group (LSE:WG.), the FTSE company that describes itself as “a global leader in consulting and engineering across energy and materials”.

On 14 February, its shares closed 55.6% lower, at 29p, after the company released a trading update.

It caps a miserable period for investors. On 5 August 2024, the stock fell 35% after a takeover for the company fell through.

Three months later, on 7 November 2024, the shares fell 60% after the firm said it had experienced a “mixed quarter” and announced an independent review. The directors appointed Deloitte to “focus on reported positions on contracts in Projects, accounting, governance and controls, including whether any prior year restatement may be required.

And then there was Friday’s news. Reminiscent of a Valentine’s Day massacre, investors appear to have fallen out of love with the company.

The upshot of all this is that the John Wood Group’s share price has fallen 85% in just over six months. Prior to being abandoned, the agreed price for the takeover was 220p a share.

Surely things can’t get any worse?

Not all bad news

But despite this doom and gloom, I think the announcement included some positives.

When the company’s accounts are finalised, the directors are expecting 2024 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of $450m-$460m, which is exactly what the analysts were forecasting prior to the press release being issued.

If realised, earnings per share will be 6.7 cents (5.3p at current exchange rates). This implies an astonishingly low price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5.

And the group expects its profits to grow by 10%, in 2025. Again, this is in line with the forecasts of the analysts.

Encouragingly, as of 31 December 2024, the company’s order book was $6.2bn. This is an $800m (14.8%) improvement on the position three months earlier. Despite its woes, the company appears to be good at what it does.

Can the information be trusted?

However, despite these glimmers of hope, I won’t be investing in the company.

My principal concern is that the trading update was presented in draft format and “subject to the conclusion of the independent review”. In other words, the figures might not be reliable.

And until these doubts are removed, I suspect investors will remain jittery.

In some respects, it doesn’t really matter whether the company’s historical results have to be restated. It’s the future that’s important. However, having confidence in a management team is, in my opinion, essential when it comes to investing. After all, if I buy a particular stock I’m entrusting my money to its directors.

As a result of its troubles, the company’s now expecting a negative free cash outflow of $150m-$200m in 2025. This is despite its expectation of being profitable. However, the costs of the independent review and legacy claims liabilities will affect its cash this year.

For these reasons, I’m going to avoid taking a position in John Wood Group. Although the company’s directors are confident that the ongoing review will not have a significant impact on its cash position — or its ability to generate cash in the future — it has identified material weaknesses and failures.

This stock’s not for me.

£1,000 invested in Tesla shares 2 months ago is now worth…

Over the long term, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have been a phenomenal investment. If an investor had bought them five years ago, they’d now be sitting on a gain of over 550% (in US dollar terms) – a magnificent return.

Recently however, the shares haven’t performed so well. In fact, if an investor had bought them two months ago – when Tesla’s share price was close to its peak – they’d now be sitting on a huge loss.

The shares have tanked

On 17 December 2024, the shares closed the day at $480. Let’s say that that was the investor’s purchase price (and that there were no trading commissions).

Looking at the share price today, it’s $356. That’s roughly 26% lower than the price two months ago, which means that the investor would be down significantly.

Now, we need to factor in the GBP/USD exchange rate when discussing Tesla stock (because it trades in the US). And this has come down from 1.27 to 1.26 over the last two months, which would have improved UK investors’ returns slightly.

However, returns would still be ugly. I calculate that for every £1,000 invested in the electric vehicle (EV) maker two months ago, the investor would now have around £748.

Ouch.

Takeaways

For me, there are two key takeaways here.

One is that portfolio diversification is crucial when investing in individual stocks.

Let’s say that the investor above was buying shares and that they only bought Tesla stock. As a result of the share price weakness, their portfolio would have taken a major hit (and they’d need a 35% gain from here to break even).

If they’d bought Tesla shares and a range of other stocks, however, they may have still done okay. Over the last two months, some stocks have performed really well. Take Visa, for example (one of my favourites). Since 17 December, it has risen about 11%.

The other key takeaway is that it’s important to pay attention to valuation when investing in stocks.

Back in December, Tesla had a sky-high valuation. At the time, the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio (a common valuation metric), using the earnings per share forecast for 2024, was above 200.

Now, just because a stock has a high P/E ratio doesn’t mean it can’t go higher. However, when the P/E ratio is sky-high like that, it dramatically increases the chances of wild share price swings, which is what we have seen with Tesla recently.

Worth considering today?

Is Tesla stock worth considering for a portfolio today after its big drop over the last two months? That’s hard to say.

There’s no doubt that the company has exciting long-term prospects. In the years ahead, it could be one of the biggest players in growth industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) and self-driving vehicles.

On the other hand, the valuation is still very high. Currently, the forward-looking P/E ratio is about 130 and that doesn’t leave much room for setbacks such as delays in the rollout of robotaxis.

Given the high valuation, I personally think there are better (safer) growth stocks to consider buying today.

Could Trump’s tariffs cause a stock market crash?

The first month of President Trump’s term has been partly focused on announcing trade tariffs on other nations. Yet the ambiguity around how these will be implemented, along with the changing rhetoric from him, has provided a high level of volatility on both the US and UK stock markets.

Yet even in just a short period of time, something has caught my eye as to why I feel the trade policy won’t cause a stock market crash.

Buying the dip

We’ve had three dips on the S&P 500 so far in relation to tariffs. The first came at the end of January, when it appeared that 25% tariffs were going to be imposed at the start of February on Canada and Mexico. Yet just a couple of days later, the US agreed to delay the tariffs on Canada for 30 days after negotiations. He also paused the tariffs on Mexico in response to actions from their government. As a result, the stock market swiftly rebounded.

There were two other dips I noted over the past two weeks, which were again associated with chatter around imposing tariffs. Last week, Trump hyped up a meeting on Thursday where reciprocal tariffs were due to be announced. Yet this turned out to be relating to actions that won’t come into effect until April.

Again, the market rebounded. This leads me to think that even though the market will be volatile going forward, it could be a case that most of this trade concern is hot air. Of course, the risk is that something material does get introduced, which could negatively impact a particular sector. This could spark a broader market sell-off, triggering a crash.

An area of concern

For example, I’d consider staying away from General Motors (NYSE:GM). The share price is up an impressive 24% over the past year. However, if 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian auto imports are brought in, it could face significant challenges.

This is because it relies on supply chains that span out of the US. It imports things like engines and electrical components from these countries. The tariffs would increase the costs for these essential parts. It would thus make vehicle production more expensive.

From this, GM would have two main options. Either absorb the costs, reducing profit margins, or pass the higher costs onto customers, potentially reducing demand.

Neither outcome is great for the company, and I feel that the share price could tumble if such measures are introduced. Other US car manufacturers could struggle as well. Interestingly, foreign automakers could win from this. For example, Toyota produces a lot of cars in America, but doesn’t import much from Mexico or Canada.

Of course, GM stock could do well if Trump get agreements from the other nations and doesn’t implement import restrictions.

My game plan

As we currently stand, the concern around tariffs hasn’t caused the market to crash. I’m going to keep investing as normal, but would be steering clear of companies that could be negatively impacted if Trump does implement aggressive tariffs.

Until we get more clarity, I think it’s the smart, risk-conscious thing to do.

Talk of a strategy reset pushes BP’s share price up 7% on Q4 2024 results day, so should I buy more now?

BP’s (LSE: BP) share price jumped 7% on 11 February’s Q4 and full-year 2024 results. This was despite the numbers being poor in some respects.

Its $1.169bn (£0.94bn) Q4 underlying replacement cost profit was 61% down on the same quarter last year. It was BP’s worst quarterly profit result in four years.

Q4 operating cash flow was 21% lower year on year at $7.427bn. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation fell 20% to $8.413bn.

The only positive from my perspective was that the oil giant stuck with its previous guidance on shareholder returns. Specifically, it pledged another $1.75bn buyback (these tend to support share prices) and paid a final 8-cent dividend.

This brought the total annual payout to 31 cents – up from 28 cents in 2023. The sterling equivalent has yet to be fixed, but the current exchange rate would give a 25-pence figure. On the current share price of £4.66, this would yield 4.8%.

So why’s the stock up?

Two key reasons pushed BP’s share price up although they may well be connected, in my view. The first was news that activist US hedge fund Elliott Investment Management has taken an undisclosed stake in the firm.

The second was BP’s statement in the Q4 results: “We now plan to fundamentally reset our strategy and drive further improvements in performance”.

The firm will give full details of this strategic reset in its capital markets update on 26 February. However, the firm also said the reset would be “building on the actions taken in the last 12 months”.

Many seem to believe this will extend the ongoing shift to a more pragmatic approach to BP’s energy transition strategy. This could include further reductions in low-carbon investments and increases in oil and gas production projects.

BP previously confirmed plans to increase US oil production to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030. It currently produces around 650,000 bpd.

And in August it signed a preliminary deal to develop oil fields in Iraq containing 20 billion barrels of reserves. The cost of removing a barrel of oil in Iraq is the joint lowest in the world alongside Iran and Saudi Arabia at $1-$2 per barrel.

I think the main risk to BP is a reversion to its previous rigid energy transition strategy. This would widen the valuation gap to its fossil-fuel-focused competitors, in my view.

However, analysts forecast that BP’s earnings will increase 25.6% a year to end-2027. And it is ultimately earnings growth that powers a firm’s share price and dividend higher.

Are the shares undervalued?

On the key price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, BP currently trades at just 0.5. This is bottom of the competitor group, which averages 1.8. So the stock looks very undervalued on this measure.

The same is true of its 1.4 price-to-book ratio against a peer average of 2.3.

discounted cash flow analysis using other analysts’ figures and my own shows BP shares are technically 45% undervalued at £4.66. Therefore, the fair value for the stock is £8.47, although market unpredictability may push them lower or higher.

Given the projected earnings growth and the strategy reset, I will be adding to my BP holding very soon.

After a 9% price drop on its 2024 results, should I buy more shares in this FTSE 100 heavyweight?

FTSE 100 heavyweight British American Tobacco (LSE: BATS) dropped 9% on the 13 February release of its full-year 2024 results.

I am not bothered about such a drop in a stock I bought for its high yield. After all, a share’s yield moves in the opposite direction to its price, which would increase my return.

I would only be concerned if such a price fall indicated a fundamental problem in the company. So to ascertain if this is true, I took a closer look at the numbers and the core business.

Were the results that bad?

Revenue fell 5.2% year on year to £25.867bn because of the sale of its Russian and Belarussian businesses. I think this was a key factor in pushing the share price lower on the day of the results release. A risk here is that the firm cannot compensate for this loss through business growth elsewhere.

Another factor that weighed on the stock’s price was a £6.2bn provision for a proposed legal settlement in Canada. The lawsuits are based on alleged health damage caused by smoking. There is a risk of more such actions against tobacco firms.

And an additional risk is increased anti-smoking regulations, with the firm highlighting Bangladesh and Australia in this regard.

What’s the business outlook from here?

That said, British American Tobacco continues to shift from combustible to smoke-free products. Its objective is to be a predominantly smokeless business by 2035.

In 2024, it added 3.6m to a total of 29.1m to smoke-free products, which now account for 17.5% of its revenue.

In 2025, the firm expects revenue growth of around 1% and a 1.5-2.5% increase in adjusted operational profit.

Looking further ahead, it is committed to growth of 3-5% in revenue and 4-6% in adjusted operational profit in 2026.

What’s the yield outlook?

The firm announced an annual dividend increase in its 2024 results to 235.52p from 230.89p.

On the present share price of £30.83, this generates a yield of 7.6%. It is more than double the current average FTSE 100 of 3.5%. And it easily exceeds the minimum 7% I want in my high-yield stocks.

Even better from my perspective is that analysts forecast this will rise to 8% in 2025, 8.3% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027.

How much dividend income can be made?

I like to build my holdings in companies in increments of £5,000. This encourages me to rigorously assess the risks in my stocks every step of the way before I build a big position.

I will add another £5,000 to my British American Tobacco stake shortly, and this should make me £380 in dividends this year.

If the yield averages the same over 10 years and I reinvest the dividends back into the stock (dividend compounding) this will rise to £5,666. And after 30 years on the same twin bases, it will increase to £43,533.

Adding in my initial £5,000 investment and my British American Tobacco holding would be worth £48,533 by then. This would be paying me a yearly dividend income of £3,689 at that point.

It underlines how relatively small investments in high-yielding stocks can generate significant passive income over time.

My Diageo shares stink! What should I do with them?

It’s fair to say that I’m unimpressed with my Diageo (LSE: DGE) shares at the moment. Over the last year, they’ve fallen 27%. Over the last three years, they’ve fallen 40% (wiping out all my long-term gains). In short, they stink!

Are they worth holding on to? Let’s discuss.

It’s ugly

There’s no doubt that Diageo is facing a lot of challenges right now.

For starters, the company has experienced a major slowdown in growth. It has been so slow recently (for the six months ending December 2024 organic sales rose just 1% year on year) that management has scrapped its medium-term goal of 5%-7% annual organic sales growth.

Then there’s the debt pile. This is more of an issue now that growth has slowed. At the end of 2024, the company’s adjusted net debt-to-earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) was 3.1 times – a sharp increase from 2019 when it was 2.3 times. This could potentially result in less dividend growth (note that the recent H1 dividend wasn’t increased).

There are also a lot of concerns about long-term demand for alcohol. Looking ahead, the rise of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could slow demand significantly. As could the drinking habits of younger generations, who are drinking less. So, the outlook is quite murky.

Adding further complications are tariffs. If US tariffs on Mexico and Canada are implemented in March, Diageo believes it could be looking at a $200m hit to operating profit. The big problem for the group here is tequila (which is a key growth driver for the company). This is made in Mexico and exported to the US.

Overall, the company has a lot to work through.

Taking a long-term view

The thing is, I do believe this company has the potential to turn things around and improve its performance and financials.

Today, it owns many world-class brands such as Johnnie Walker, Tanqueray, Don Julio, and Guinness (which grew 17% in the six months ending December). And it believes that the spirits industry has a long runway for growth.

It also has significant exposure to the world’s emerging markets. Here, incomes are rising and demand for well-known brands is growing.

As for the stock, valuation metrics look quite attractive right now, to my mind.

Currently, Diageo’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 16 using this financial year’s earnings per share forecast (falling to 15 using next year’s). That’s down from around 25 a few years ago.

Zooming in on the dividend, the yield is near 4%. That’s the highest it has been in a long time (and higher than a lot of savings accounts are paying today).

Given the relatively low valuation and attractive dividend yield, I’m going to hold on to my Diageo shares for now. It may take a while for them to recover but I continue to believe that a recovery is possible.

5 things that make me nervous about Barclays shares!

While reviewing the FTSE 100‘s best performers over one year, I noticed that Barclays (LSE: BARC) shares have soared to third place in this table. Whoa.

Barclays shares surge

The Barclays share price currently stands at 293.45p, valuing the bank at £42.4bn and close to the five-year high of 312.4p set on 12 February. At its 52-week low, it hit 140.48p on 14 February 2024, but has more than doubled since.

Over six months, the shares have leapt 32.4%, while also rocketing 106.6% over one year. They have jumped by 66.8% over five years, thrashing the FTSE 100’s gain of 17.7%. These returns exclude cash dividends, which British banks pay generously. After this price surge, Barclays shares now offer a dividend yield of 2.9% a year, below the Footsie‘s yearly cash yield of 3.6%.

Disclosure: my family bought into Barclays for 154.5p a share in July 2022 and have more than doubled our money since (with dividends included). We have no plans to sell now or in the near future. Why ditch a winning position?

However, I can see a few bumps in the road ahead for Barclays. Here are my five worries for 2025-26:

1. Reducing rates

If UK inflation continues to fall, then the Bank of England can lower its base rate. This generally brings down interest rates, reducing banks’ interest income and lending spreads. This could be Barclays’ biggest risk over the coming years.

2. Mis-selling and loan losses

In its latest results, the bank set aside £90m in the fourth quarter to cover potential fines for mis-selling car finance before it exited this market in 2019. Who knows whether the actual compensation will be lower or higher than this?

Furthermore, Barclays’ latest credit impairments (bad debts and loan losses) totalled £700m, up roughly 17% from Q4 2023. This was higher than analysts forecast, sparking fears that these write-downs could rise further.

3. Money-laundering probe

Barclays warned that the Financial Conduct Authority is reviewing its “historical oversight and management of certain customers with heightened risk“. Again, this might generate hefty fines for misconduct around money laundering and financial crimes.

4. Tax troubles

Barclays is arguing with UK tax authorities over its bank levy, the yearly charge applied to bank balance sheets following the global financial crisis of 2007-09. HMRC want more than Barclays prefers to pay — no surprise!

5. Tech tantrums

Millions of Barclays customers (including me) were affected by a huge IT failure this year. From 31 January to 2 February, balances were not updated and transfers and payments failed as online banking went haywire. This wrecked my weekend with friends, as I struggled to transfer money between accounts.

Following this bungle, Treasury Select Committee MPs have asked major banks and building societies for details of similar outages going back two years. Also, MPs asked Barclays for detailed feedback on its latest stumble, which I suspect won’t end well.

Now for the good news: Barclays’ net profit was around £1bn for the fourth quarter, versus a loss of £111m in Q4 of 2023. Group revenue leapt 24% to £7bn, also ahead of expectations. The bank also saw strong growth in its investment-banking operations. Hence, I see no reason to sell our Barclays shares, but I’ll be watching the group’s announcements closely.

3 reasons the NatWest share price could keep climbing

The NatWest (LSE:NWG) share price has climbed 85% over the last 12 months. And in valuation terms, the stock now trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.05 compared to 0.55 a year ago. 

That makes it look like the time to consider buying has passed, especially given the inherent risks of investing in bank shares. But I think there could well be more to come.

Ownership

The first – and most obvious – benefit is NatWest is about to return to being fully private in terms of its ownership. The UK government’s stake in the bank is now below 7%.

The most obvious benefit is the company should be able to make decisions with a clearer focus. In particular, it won’t have to consider how its plans align with government priorities.

An example of this is its capital returns policy. Having been rescued by the state during the 2008-2009 crisis, returning excessive cash to shareholders might be seen as being in poor taste.

As always, there are no guarantees. But the UK government no longer having an interest in the business might clear the way for higher dividends and share buybacks in the future.

Acquisitions

A return to private ownership could allow the bank to grow via acquisition. There’s speculation that Banco Santander SA might be looking to divest its UK division, which might suit NatWest.

The obvious benefit would be an increase in its consumer deposit base. This could boost the bank’s profits by giving it access to a bigger pool of capital it can use at a low cost.

In the short term, making acquisitions can be risky. It involves paying out guaranteed cash (or stock) up front in the hope of making a return in the future – and this isn’t certain to happen.

Over the long term, however, I think increased scale could be valuable for NatWest. And Santander isn’t the only possibility that I’ve heard mentioned as a potential opportunity.

Regulation

In general, regulation is probably the biggest risk when it comes to banking stocks – including NatWest. It can change without notice and cause profitability to fall over the long term. 

I think, however, there’s a decent chance things become more favourable for UK banks in the near future. And I’m looking at the Chancellor as a source of potential optimism.

The government has made economic growth a priority and this is likely to require investment from businesses. They’ll need capital, which is likely to come from banks. 

As a result, I think there’s a decent chance lending restrictions might become more relaxed for NatWest and other UK banks. And this could result in higher returns going forward. 

Buy high?

It isn’t easy to see a stock as a potential buy when it’s almost twice as expensive as it was a year ago. But there’s still a lot that could go right for NatWest, especially over the long term. 

Investors wanting guaranteed returns should look elsewhere and banks can go spectacularly wrong. Despite this, I think the stock is still worth careful consideration.

Billionaire’s hedge fund bets big against the GSK share price!

Over the past year, the GSK (LSE: GSK) share price has lagged behind the FTSE 100, falling 14% versus the Footsie’s gain of 14.9%. This leaves the stock languishing at #91 among Footsie members over 12 months.

On Friday (14 February), this stock closed at 1,432.5p, valuing the biopharma giant at £59.4bn. Since Valentine’s Day 2024, the shares have moved between a 52-week of 1,823.5p (set in May) and a 52-week low of 1,282.5p in November. Right now, they lie towards the lower end of this range.

Notably, this lack of price momentum and direction has persisted for years. This stock is down 15.9% over five years, a period during which the FTSE 100 has climbed by 17.9%. Furthermore, the chart of the share price over the past decade closely resembles the teeth of a saw — zigzagging up and down in a range between £12 and £18.

We were big on this one

In short, the GSK share price has disappointed shareholders for years. I know, as I have a tiny holding in this business, while my wife has a more meaningful stake. For decades, GSK was my family’s largest shareholding, because my wife worked for this firm for 31 years. But on departing in April 2021, she sold almost all her shares. This was very lucrative, because her company agreed to pay all taxes on these sales, thus saving her large sums.

Betting the price will fall

On Friday, I spotted a breaking story in the Financial Times, which revealed that hedge fund Citadel — run by US billionaire Kenneth C Griffin — has bet big on this FTSE 100 heading south.

Ken Griffin is one investor to be reckoned with. He has a net worth of around $44bn, while Citadel itself managed $65bn of assets at end-2024. Last year, this fund returned 15.1%, versus 23.3% for the US S&P 500 index.

Citadel revealed it has taken a £305m short position against GSK. This rises in value as the share price falls. This is the biggest bet against this business since 2013. Under UK rules, short bets exceeding 0.5% of a company’s market value must be disclosed. At 0.51%, this short slightly exceeds this level.

Could Citadel be wrong?

I’d be reluctant to bet against Ken Griffin and his mighty Citadel. Nevertheless, I believe there must be more suitable stocks out there to bet against.

For example, the GSK share price has jumped by 10.7% since 14 January. Also, GSK shares trade on a forward price-earnings ratio below 9.1, delivering a future earnings yield of 11%. Hence, the dividend yield of 4.3% a year is covered a healthy 2.6 times by earnings. To me, these don’t resemble the fundamentals of a company in crisis so GSK may still be worth considering.

What’s more, in its latest results released on 4 February, the group raised its long-term sales forecast and unveiled a £2bn share buyback lasting 18 months. That said, while sales of HIV and cancer treatments are strong, GSK’s late-stage pipeline of new drugs and vaccines needs a boost. Also, the firm faces an ‘earnings cliff’ three years from now, when HIV patents begin expiring.

As for me, my GSK holding will stay put for now. However, I will be paying close attention to all the company’s announcements during 2025!

Now at a 52-week high, can the Scottish Mortgage share price go even higher?

The Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LSE: SMT) share price is on fire this year — up 18.4% already!

This strong performance has delivered an impressive 40% one-year return, propelling the FTSE 100 stock past the £11 mark for the first time in three years.

My question as a shareholder is, can it keep pushing on this year?

Why is it up?

Many of the growth-focused trust‘s top holdings are Nasdaq stocks. With the tech-driven index near a record high and interest rates seemingly heading lower, Scottish Mortgage is benefitting nicely.

The portfolio has loads of exposure to artificial intelligence (AI), ranging from chipmakers Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) to cloud giant Amazon. Cleary, the trust is in a strong position as the AI revolution rumbles on, with many of its top holdings growing really strongly right now.

Looking beyond the usual US tech giants like Amazon and Nvidia, two European stocks are worth a mention: Spotify and Hermès International.

In Q4, Spotify’s monthly active users grew 12% year on year to 675m, while subscribers increased to 263m. This helped revenue jump 16% to €4.2bn. Last year was also the streaming giant’s first full year of profitability, as it generated over €1.1bn in net profit.

As for Hermès, the ultra-luxury leather goods and fashion house also reported very strong Q4 numbers. Revenue at constant exchange rates soared 17.6% to nearly €4bn, with all geographical areas posting solid growth. Given how most luxury firms are struggling right now, this is impressive.

Of course, both companies could be hit by weaker consumer spending if inflation rises this year. However, for now at least, the two firms are firing on all cylinders and have been top picks by Scottish Mortgage’s managers.

In the past year alone, shares of Spotify and Hermès are up 161% and 32%, respectively.

Below are some other strong portfolio performers worth highlighting:

12-month share price return
Sea Ltd 216%
Tempus AI 122% (since IPO in June 2024)
Nvidia 88%
Netflix 82%
Shopify 66%

Potential flies in the ointment

The flip side to all this is that the trust’s share price could pull back sharply if interest rates rise in response to a spike in inflation. I don’t envisage this happening, but it can’t be ruled out if a full-on global trade war kicks off.

It’s also worth mentioning that valuations are quite high right now. For example, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is 65 for Spotify and 59 for Hermès. This means the firms will have to keep posting solid numbers this year to justify their premium valuations.

Can it go higher?

Looking ahead though, I think the Scottish Mortgage share price may well move even higher this year. Its top holding is SpaceX, the unlisted rocket pioneer that is making incredible progress with its Starlink satellite internet service.

The company is consistently adding satellites to its 7,000 mega-constellation, most with direct-to-cell capabilities. Due to this rapid progress, SpaceX’s $350bn valuation could head higher later this year, boosting the value of Scottish Mortgage’s holding in the process.

The trust is a staple in my portfolio, so I’m not looking to buy any more shares. But even after the recent strong performance, it’s trading at a 9.6% discount to net asset value (NAV). So I think it’s still worth considering for long-term growth investors.

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