Bond Report: Short-term yields near 15-year highs ahead of inflation report

Short-term bond yields on Friday were near the highest level in 15 years as traders awaited key inflation data.

What’s happening
  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.720%

    was 4.72%, up 2.1 basis points. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.903%

    was 3.9%, up 1.9 basis points.

  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury
    TMUBMUSD30Y,
    3.897%

    was 3.9%, up 0.9 basis points.

What’s driving markets

Friday will see the release of the personal consumption expenditure price index, and expectations are elevated after the Commerce Department upwardly revised the price data for the fourth quarter.

“Attention will focus on the core PCE deflator as a measure of inflation. The forecast consensus is for an increase of 0.4% or 0.5%. Airfares will be part of this (the desire to go on holiday at any price is a factor). Seasonal adjustment may also boost the number—but what goes up in seasonal adjustment now, must come down later on,” said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

A busy economics calendar will also include five Federal Reserve officials and the release of new-home sales data.

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