Attitudes towards later life borrowing change as half of buyers under 40 forced to delay home buying

Attitudes towards later life borrowing change as half of buyers under 40 forced to delay home buying
Image source: Getty Images


It’s often said that given time, everything changes. This certainly appears to be the case when it comes to our attitudes towards later life borrowing.

According to new research from the Equity Release Council (ERC), as adverse financial circumstances cause people to get on the property ladder later in life than they would have liked, attitudes toward later life debt are also changing. Paying a mortgage into retirement is becoming less taboo. People are also becoming more willing to use their properties to enhance their retirement experience.

Here’s the lowdown.

What does the research show?

According to new data from the ERC, 45% of mortgaged homeowners under the age of 40 got on the property ladder much later than expected, compared to 29% of those over 40.

This delayed homeownership essentially means that nearly a third (32%) of homeowners with a mortgage have already ruled out being mortgage-free before retirement.

The most likely reason for delayed homeownership is the discrepancy between house price growth and income growth. A recent study from Nationwide shows that house prices have risen to 5.5x the annual salary of a first-time buyer. This is the highest ever ratio on record.

A 20% deposit on a home now equates to 110% of the pre-tax income of a typical full-time employee.

It’s not surprising, then, that according to ERC data, 43% of mortgaged homeowners under the age of 40 receive financial assistance from family or friends. In comparison, only 23% of those aged 40 and up receive similar assistance.

What about later life borrowing?

According to Jim Boyd, CEO of the Equity Release Council, the realities of delayed homeownership are also prompting people to reassess their attitudes toward secured debt in later life. As paying for a mortgage in retirement becomes less taboo, people are also becoming more accepting of later life debt, such as lifetime mortgages that allow them to take out a loan secured against their homes.

Boyd explains that for many people, secured debt in later life “can make the difference between financial hardship and enjoying a more comfortable lifestyle while also supporting family members”.

According to the ERC survey, 32% of people see it as a way to access money to improve their lifestyle. Meanwhile, 31% see it as a way to get money to help family members.

Are there any cons to later life debt?

In short, yes, there are.

A lifetime mortgage, for example, means that you will have less to leave as an inheritance to your loved ones. You will also need to budget for things like legal fees, valuation fees and building insurance.

It can also affect your tax situation and your entitlement to means-tested state benefits such as Pension Credit and Universal Credit.

Before committing to a lifetime mortgage or any other form of equity release, carefully consider all of your options. An equity release adviser can be useful in this situation. They can assess your personal circumstances and help you to decide whether the move is right for you.

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Economic Report: Americans pay the price for high inflation each time they go to the grocery store

Beef, chicken, seafood, eggs, milk, snacks, even baby food. Americans are seeing rising prices or inflation every time they make a trip to the grocery store.

The cost of groceries — what the government calls “food at home” — rose sharply in November for the eighth month in a row.

The result: The increase in grocery prices over the past 12 months climbed to 6.4%. It’s the steepest advance since a short-lived spike in 2008 and the second biggest gain since 1990.

What’s worse, prices are likely to remain high for a while. The cost of animal feed, farm crops for human consumption, fertilizer, packaging and transportation have also risen sharply.

High inflation has eaten away at Americans’ confidence in the economy and the Biden White House’s role in trying to tackle the problem. Republicans are putting the blame on Democrats to try to get a leg up on the pivotal 2022 congressional elections.

Some states are even considering junking or suspending grocery taxes to help out.

In the meantime Americans are paying the price — particular middle-class and less well-off families who spend a high proportion of their income on food. Just look at the increase in the cost of popular grocery items over the past year:

  • Beef — 21%

  • Pork — 16.8%

  • Poultry — 8.4%

  • Fresh seafood — 10.6%

  • Eggs — 8%

  • Fresh milk — 6%

  • Fresh fruit — 5.8%

  • Soft drinks — 7.4%

  • Coffee — 7.5%

  • Cooking oil — 12.9%

  • Peanut butter — 6.8%

The Federal Reserve, the nation’s inflation-fighting body, has clearly been caught off guard by how fast inflation has risen.

Central bank leaders insist the rise in prices will subside toward the end of next year, but they are worried enough to speed up plans to end their massive stimulus program for the U.S. economy that some say has contributed to high inflation.

Economists also expect inflation to ease in 2022 as major supply-chain bottlenecks and shortages of materials and labor ease.

“The jump in food prices is largely due to higher oil prices and the pass-through of higher costs of transportation and fertilizer,” said senior economist Bill Adams of PNC Financial Services. “These sources of inflation should fade in 2022 as supply catches up with demand and supply chain turmoil subsides.”

Yet how quickly inflation fades, and how much, is still anyone’s guess.

For American families, relief can’t come fast enough. inflation is now outstripping a rapid increase in wages and making it harder to make ends meet.

Here’s how young Brits are planning to avoid high UK house prices

Here’s how young Brits are planning to avoid high UK house prices
Image source: Getty Images


With rising house prices and an overheated market showing no signs of cooling, it looks like young Brits are thinking outside the box and looking elsewhere to purchase homes.

Here’s how some people plan to buy more reasonably priced homes and why we could soon see a mass exodus from the UK housing scene. I’ll also share some tips for finding yourself a home that you can afford.

Why are UK house prices so high?

Rising house prices were a symptom of the coronavirus pandemic that no one was really expecting. However, during lockdowns, a ‘race for space’ ensued, with people looking to move to larger properties away from the urban sprawl. On top of this, there was also the Stamp Duty holiday and the fact that many people built their savings while restrictions were in place.

All of this combined with historically low interest rates (making it cheap to access a mortgage), created a perfect storm for a boiling hot housing market. With lots of demand and a limited supply of homes, prices have been creeping higher and higher.

This is making homes even less affordable for young people on relatively low wages. Rising rents are also making it increasingly difficult for some to build up savings and put together a deposit. So it’s no surprise that many people in this situation are starting to look at alternative routes to homeownership.

How are younger Brits responding to high UK house prices?

In order to avoid the highly inflated UK house market, some young Brits are looking to buy property abroad instead.

Research from home and contents insurer Urban Jungle shows some interesting stats about people in the 18-35 age bracket. According to their survey:

  • 25% are considering moving abroad to make owning a home more realistic.
  • 80% are actively saving for a deposit, but a third of those believe they won’t be able to meet their target.
  • 84% who’ve managed to get on the property ladder have been surprised by the hidden costs of buying a home.

Why would moving abroad be a good option?

Not only does the younger generation have to deal with high house prices in the UK but there’s also inflation and the rising cost of living to worry about. In most cases, wage growth has not nearly been fast enough to keep pace with other costs.

One positive outcome of the pandemic is the rise in remote working. Working remotely using the internet opens up a lot more possibilities for first-time buyers. Buying a house abroad can be more affordable, and some countries also have much more reasonable living costs. 

No longer will workers be forced to live in expensive commuter towns or near city offices. Some can now look for cheaper living arrangements, whether that’s within the UK or abroad. If you don’t like the idea of an international move, check out our article explaining some helpful things you need to know about buying a home in the current climate.

Where can you find help to deal with high house prices?

If the rising cost of owning a home is becoming a real barrier, don’t panic. We’ve got some excellent resources to help you. If you’re struggling to get a deposit together, here are three ways to get help.

It’s also worth making sure you’re completely clued up on mortgages. Check out this straightforward guide for accessing the best mortgage deals in the UK.

Whatever your situation, there will be ways that you can make the dream of homeownership more realistic. But it may involve a lot of hard work and research. So don’t be put off it takes some time.

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Market Extra: Hottest U.S. inflation rate in almost 40 years brings sigh of relief in some corners of financial markets

The hottest U.S. consumer inflation reading in almost 40 years is bringing a surprising sigh of relief in certain corners of the financial markets, where some were expecting a headline year-over-year number closer to 7%.

The relief was evident in investors’ appetite for U.S. Treasuries Friday morning after the government’s consumer price index report, which showed the headline year-on-year reading at 6.8% for November. While undoubtedly high, the reading dodged the 7% level that a few saw as a risk, raising hope that inflation may be in the process of topping out.

Read: Traders see next U.S. CPI reading close to 7% as volatile markets try to shake off omicron and Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot

While the CPI print was high, “some folks on Wall Street were expecting an even higher number” and the core CPI number, which excludes volatile items, “was in line with expectations,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer of Orion Advisor Solutions.

“The two points above have many thinking that we are close to, if not at, peak inflation,” Holland wrote in an e-mail to MarketWatch. “That strikes us as a reasonable view, which would point us towards lower inflation going forward, which would support / justify little to no movement in yields.”

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Fixed income tends to be the asset class that gets hit hardest by rising inflation, which erodes the fixed value of bonds. Ordinarily, investors would be selling off Treasuries in response to a higher inflation print, which would lead to higher yields. Instead, ongoing demand for U.S. government debt, whether domestically or from abroad, pushed bond prices higher and yields lower Friday, as investors turn their attention to next Wednesday’s policy update from the Federal Reserve.

On Friday, yields fell across the curve, with the exception of 1-month and 2-month bill rates. The 10-year yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.458%

slipped to around 1.45% and the 30-year
TMUBMUSD30Y,
1.856%

dropped to 1.84%, remaining near historically low levels.

Surprisingly, the 2-year yield, which reflects expectations for the near-term path of Fed policy, fell by the most, to around 0.64% which is still not far from the highest levels of the year. The move is counterintuitive because investors are expecting the Fed to proceed with a faster pace of tapering bond purchases, in order to have greater flexibility to hike interest rates sooner next year and combat inflation.

Meanwhile, equity investors brushed off the inflation print at first before all three U.S. stock benchmark indexes started giving up their earlier gains.

Gennadiy Goldberg, a senior US rates strategist for TD Securities, says the market pays less attention to the headline year-on-year figure than it does to the monthly numbers. “Yields are declining because month-over-month inflation didn’t come in as high as expected, and a lot of Fed tightening has already been priced in — with almost three rate hikes expected for 2022,” Goldberg said via phone.

“If you look at the long end and the pricing for rates in overnight-indexed swaps, the long-run terminal rate is just 1.5%,” below the 2.5% seen by Fed officials in September, he said. “That’s an indication that the market could be penciling in some policy error.”

: Peloton blames that shocking ‘Sex and the City’ reboot death on ‘extravagant lifestyle’ — not the bike

And just like that, the “Sex and the City” reboot killed off a main character in its series premiere — which has Peloton backpedaling like crazy, since this beloved character suffered a heart attack after riding one of the exercise company’s $1,500-plus bikes.

The rest of this story contains major spoilers for the HBO Max series “And Just Like That…” — so viewers who haven’t tuned in yet should read on at their own risk. 

The long-awaited “Sex and the City” reboot, which catches up with the now 50-something characters from HBO’s
T,
-0.10%

hit NSFW franchise, shocked fans by destroying the leading on-again, off-again couple’s hard-earned happily ever after. 

Yes, after six seasons and two films’ worth of drama, the new series gave fans a glimpse of Sarah Jessica Parker’s Carrie and Chris Noth’s “Mr. Big” (aka John James Preston) enjoying their early golden years together — before ending the episode with Big dying in Carrie’s arms after suffering a heart attack while taking a Peloton
PTON,
-5.87%

class in their penthouse.

And fans couldn’t help but wonder: what were the showrunners thinking?! Plenty took to Twitter
TWTR,
-2.80%

to vent, or to take digs at the show. 

Reps from the show and HBO Max were not immediately available for comment.

Peloton also found itself spinning damage control on Thursday night and Friday morning. The company was not immediately available for comment. But it released a statement through cardiologist Dr. Suzanne Steinbaum, a member of Peloton’s Health & Wellness Advisory Council, that spins Big’s untimely demise as a result of his extravagant lifestyle — and not from riding a Peloton bike. 

“Riding his Peloton bike may have even helped delay his cardiac event.”

“I’m sure SATC fans, like me, are saddened by the news that Mr. Big dies of a heart attack. Mr. Big lived what many would call an extravagant lifestyle—including cocktails, cigars, and big steaks—and was at serious risk as he had a previous cardiac event in Season 6,” she said in a statement to news outlets including the Los Angeles Times

“These lifestyle choices and perhaps even his family history, which often is a significant factor, were the likely cause of his death,” she continued. “Riding his Peloton bike may have even helped delay his cardiac event.”

And Peloton spokesperson Denise Kelly told BuzzFeed that the company was blindsided by how the bike was used in relation to Big’s death in the episode. 

“HBO procured the Peloton Bike on their own. Peloton was aware that a Bike would be used in the episode, and that Jess King would be portraying a fictional Peloton instructor,” Kelly said. “Due to confidentiality reasons, HBO did not disclose the larger context surrounding the scene to Peloton in advance.” 

Crock-Pot can certainly sympathize. The slow cooker brand was burned by the NBC
CMCSA,
+0.70%

drama “This Is Us” in 2018, when a heart-wrenching episode saw a slow cooker spark a kitchen fire that burned down the family’s home, resulting in the death of that show’s beloved leading man Jack (Milo Ventimiglia.) 

Devastated viewers initially reacted on social media by threatening to throw away their own Crock-Pots.

But Crock-Pot managed to put out the PR fire by launching a @crockpotcares Twitter account that responded to many viewers’ tweets, as well as publishing a lengthy Facebook post to try to reassure customers that its signature appliance isn’t going to roast them in their sleep. 

They also rolled out a “very special message” apology ad during the Super Bowl that showed Ventimiglia dishing himself a bowl of chili from a Crock-Pot with the hashtag #CrockPotIsInnocent popping up on the screen.

Read more: How that devastating ‘This Is Us’ fire actually boosted Crock-Pot sales

A month later, Ad Age reported that Crock-Pot sales actually increased $300,892. Maybe Peloton can take a page from Crock-Pot’s playbook? 

It’s been a year of ups and downs for Peloton, and the “Sex and the City” plot twist certainly didn’t help. On Friday, its stock was downgraded to neutral from outperform at Credit Suisse, after shares skidded 11% to $40.70 on Thursday, the day the episode aired. 

And in May, the company voluntarily recalled 125,000 treadmills after more than 29 reports of injuries to children, and one death. It also recalled 1,050 Tread treadmills, saying the touch screen can detach and fall and pose a risk of injury.

Will a weak UK economy lead to a stock market crash?

The FTSE 100 index is on a roll this week, as it continues to stay above the 7,300 mark. However, I am not feeling terribly confident that the stock markets will remain bullish. In fact, after looking at the latest numbers for the UK economy, I am beginning to think that we might just have a stock market crash on our hands soon. 

The UK economy slows down

In October, the UK economy grew by a minuscule 0.1% from the month before. It also slowed down considerably from a 0.6% increase in September. The numbers are particularly disappointing right now, because growth was expected to pick up after the the easing of restrictions. And clearly, that is not happening quite as fast as was hoped. 

5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50

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With the Omicron variant resulting in some travel restrictions and possibly even making us cautious about being in public places again, some more weakness could build into the economy. This in turn could have a sentiment impact on the stock markets and even show up in company’s results going forward. 

Is a housing market crash likely?

I also think that the rollback of government support to segments like real estate might have impacted the pace of recovery. Construction, which can be seen a loose proxy for property markets, actually saw a decline in October. It fell by 1.8%, the biggest fall since, wait for this, April 2020, which was very early in the pandemic. And one of the biggest contributors to this was the decline in the private new housing segment. 

Considering that there are a handful of property developers in the FTSE 100 index, this does not sound good for the markets. Even though they have reported growth in order books recently, I think the first signs of a slowdown in the housing market are here. And if there is a sudden crash in the segment, I reckon the FTSE 100 index as such could weaken.

What I’d buy in a stock market crash

However, there is reason to look on the bright side as well. Even if the broad weakness in the economy were to add to conditions that could result in a stock market crash, I think today’s report also indicates the best stocks to buy in that case. As we at the Motley Fool keep saying, a stock market crash is a buying opportunity. The latest numbers from the economy show that the services sector is doing well. It is back to its pre-pandemic levels, racing ahead of the overall economy.

One of the big contributors to its October growth is wholesale and retail trade. And considering that there are a few retailers among FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 constituents, I think these might make good buys for me. I reckon that especially those that either are e-commerce businesses or have significantly ramped up their online operations during the lockdowns could do quite well irrespective of the state of the recovery.  

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Manika Premsingh has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

7 Things to Know Before Getting the Chase Aeroplan Credit Card

On Dec. 2, Air Canada launched a brand new credit card for U.S. consumers — and it’s clear that the Canadian airline is certainly looking to make a splash. The new Chase-issued Aeroplan® Credit Card is offering a sign-up bonus: Earn 2 Welcome Flight Rewards (worth up to 100,000 total points) after you spend $4,000 in the first 3 months from account opening. Plus, as an added perk, new cardholders get Aeroplan elite status for up to two years.

The benefits of this card make it quite enticing, but there are some aspects to keep in mind before signing up. Here are the things to know before getting the Chase Aeroplan® Credit Card.

What to know before getting the Aeroplan® Credit Card

1. The sign-up bonus offers award certificates, not points

The new cardholder offer on the Aeroplan® Credit Card is pretty exciting, providing up to 100,000 points in value. However, you won’t earn any actual points from the sign-up bonus. Instead, new Aeroplan® Credit Card holders can earn two Flight Reward Certificates worth 50,000 points each after spending $4,000 in the first three months after opening the card.

This is a sign-up bonus unlike what we’ve seen on other airline cards, which typically offer bonus miles instead of mileage certificates. We’ve recently seen similar certificate-based sign-up bonuses offered on hotel credit cards. If you’re familiar with those offers, there are two key differences to note about the sign-up bonus on the Aeroplan® Credit Card.

First, these certificates won’t expire as long as you have the credit card open. So you can save them to use when you’re ready to take a big overseas trip. Also, you can top off these award certificates with Aeroplan points to maximize their value. Say you want to book a 65,000-point award. You can apply a 50,000-point certificate and then make up the 15,000-point difference with a stash of points to book the award.

2. Check your email for a special invite if you signed up for the waitlist

To build excitement when originally announcing the new credit card, Aeroplan gave members the chance to sign up for a waitlist. One of the incentives for doing so: you’d get 10,000 bonus points on top of the sign-up bonus. Aeroplan further sweetened that offer by adding 10 eUpgrade certificates, which can be exchanged for upgrades to premium cabins on any flight operated by Air Canada.

If you signed up for the waitlist, keep an eye on your email for a special link to sign up for the Aeroplan® Credit Card with this enhanced bonus. You’ll need to apply via that link and be approved for the card by Feb. 15, 2022, to get the special offer.

3. You can redeem Aeroplan points on 45 different airlines

Aeroplan is the Air Canada loyalty program, but you’re certainly not limited to using your Aeroplan points on Air Canada. In fact, Aeroplan members can redeem points for award travel on 45 different airlines — including United, ANA, Air New Zealand, Austrian Airlines, Avianca, Etihad, EVA Air, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, SWISS, TAP Portugal and many more.

  • Award flights within North America on United or Air Canada for just 6,000 points.

  • Award flights to Hawaii from 12,500 points each way in economy class, or 25,000 points each way in business.

  • Business class awards to Europe from 60,000 points each way.

Even better, you don’t have to worry about paying high out-of-pocket costs on these awards. Aeroplan no longer charges fuel surcharges on any awards.

4. Carefully time when you sign up to maximize elite status

New Aeroplan® Credit Card holders get Aeroplan’s introductory 25K elite status level for the remainder of the year in which you sign up plus the following calendar year.

If you apply for the card in January 2022, you’ll get 25K elite status perks through Dec. 31, 2023. If that timeline doesn’t work for you, aim to apply as early in a calendar year as possible. If you’re nearing the end of a calendar year, you may want to wait until the next year to apply for the Aeroplan® Credit Card to get elite status for even longer.

There is a special exception to promote the card launch, however. Aeroplan is offering cardholders who apply in December 2021 the same elite status benefits through the end of 2023 as if you applied in 2022.

5. The Aeroplan® Credit Card is a World Elite Mastercard

Mastercard cards are generally as widely accepted as Visa cards. However, a few merchants won’t accept payments by Mastercard. Perhaps the most notable is Costco,  which accepts only Visa-branded credit cards in stores.

As a World Elite Mastercard, the Aeroplan® Credit Card comes with perks like cell phone protection, ID theft protection, 24/7 concierge service, complimentary ShopRunner membership, Lyft credits, DoorDash credits and more.

6. The card offers ‘exponential’ spending incentives

Aeroplan representatives have made it clear that they want to incentivize cardholders to spend on their cards. So Aeroplan and Chase set up several spending incentives for cardholders. These fall into several categories:

  • Bonus points: You’ll earn 500 bonus points for every $2,000 you spend in a calendar month, up to 1,500 bonus points per month.

  • Elite status: Spend $15,000 in a year to earn Aeroplan’s lowest tier of elite status: 25K. If you spend $50,000 in a calendar year, you’ll earn a one-level elite status boost. That means you’ll get at least 35K elite status. Frequent flyers with a higher level of elite status will get even higher elite status. So if you earn 50K elite status from flying, you’ll be bumped up to 75K.

  • Award discounts: Cardholders can earn 50% off Priority Rewards when they achieve set spending thresholds ($100,000, $250,000, $500,000 and $750,000). Cardholders that spend at least $1 million in a year earn a Global+1 pass, which cardholders can use to take a designated companion with them on any award for no additional cost.

7. 5/24 restrictions

Chase has an unpublished — but well-known — application restriction known as the 5/24 rule. In short, you’re unlikely to be approved for any new Chase credit card if you’ve opened five or more personal credit cards in the past 24 months.

The Aeroplan® Credit Card just launched, so we can’t be sure yet. However, we can assume that the Aeroplan® Credit Card will be subject to these application restrictions.

If you’re considering the Aeroplan® Credit Card

Even if you don’t travel on Air Canada often, the Aeroplan® Credit Card is an appealing card. The sign-up bonus and spending on the card will earn you Aeroplan points that can be redeemed on up to 45 airlines.

The Aeroplan® Credit Card is even more appealing for frequent Air Canada travelers. You’ll get 25K elite status as a benefit of signing up for the card. By spending $50,000, you’ll get a one-level elite status boost, guaranteeing 35K elite status — or even higher status if you earn elite status from flying. Just be sure you have a slot to apply given Chase credit card line requirements.

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You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2021, including those best for:

: Fed offers guidance after Archegos’ $10 billion blowup

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday reinforced lessons it shared with banks to keep a close watch on their institutional trading partners after the $10 billion blowup of Archegos Capital Managed exposed counterparty risk in the financial system.

The move came after Archegos Capital Management, an investment firm concentrated in a small  number of U.S. and Chinese technology and media companies, defaulted on March 26, setting off a chain reaction that led to $10 billion in losses across several large banks.

The Fed revealed last month that the losses exposed vulnerabilities, and have now followed up with more guidance for banks to step up their due diligence efforts.

“When initiating a relationship and on an ongoing basis, firms should  obtain critical information regarding size, leverage, largest or most concentrated positions, and  number of prime brokers with sufficient detail or frequency to determine the fund’s ability to  service its debt,” said a letter to banks from Michael S. Gibson, director of the Division of Supervision and Regulation at the Fed.

“If a client refuses to provide this information, firms should consider whether it is consistent with safe and sound practices for them to begin or maintain a relationship with the  fund or whether they can use strong compensating measures, such as significantly more stringent  contractual terms, to mitigate the risk,” Gibson said.

Gibson said his recommendations remain consistent with its interagency supervisory guidance on counterparty credit risk management, which promotes failsafes for banks.

Banks should receive adequate information with appropriate frequency to understand the risks of the investment fund; ensure the risk-management and governance approach applied to the investment fund is capable of identifying the fund’s risk initially and monitoring it throughout the relationship; and ensure that margin practices remain appropriate to the fund’s risk profile as it evolves,  Gibson noted.

Banks should also avoid inflexible and risk-insensitive margin terms or extended close-out periods with  their investment fund clients. 

House prices rising by £1,700 a month: when will they (finally) crash?

House prices rising by £1,700 a month: when will they (finally) crash?
Image source: Getty Images


According to Halifax, the average UK property now costs £272,992. This is over £20,700 more than this time a year ago, suggesting house prices are climbing by a staggering £1,700 a month. 

So what does this mean for first-time buyers? And should homeowners be worried about a future house price crash? Let’s take a look.

What does the latest House Price Index tell us?

According to Halifax’s November House Price Index, the average cost of a property now stands at £272,992. This is a tad higher than the latest ONS statistics, which suggest the average home costs £270,000.

To put this into context, an average home now costs almost 11 times the average UK salary after tax. This is before any student loan repayments are taken into account – an additional cost faced by many first-time buyers.

This means that budding homeowners on an average salary are unlikely to save enough each month to keep up with constantly rising house prices. Savings rates are also pitiful right now, making it especially difficult for those attempting to grow their deposit. 

So is there any hope for first-time buyers in the form of a future house price crash?

When will a house price crash happen?

Many first-time buyers believe a future house price crash presents their best chance of eventually owning a home. And while some non-homeowners may already have saved enough for a deposit, some will undoubtedly be sitting tight and hoping for a price drop in the near term. That’s because some may consider the current housing market as a textbook example of an asset bubble.

Other hopeful buyers may be reluctant to sign their name on a long-term mortgage at current prices. That’s because, aside from being tied to debt for several decades, any future house price crash could easily dump them into negative equity.

Whatever your situation, it’s important to recognise that predicting the housing market is almost impossible. Despite this, here are some factors that may indicate a house price crash is just around the corner: 

1. Current prices aren’t sustainable

House prices are already stretching price-to-earnings ratios, and a point will come where further rises will hit the ‘breaking point’ for future buyers. Aside from increasing mortgage terms, something will eventually have to give.

2. Rising inflation is likely to continue into 2022

Inflation is already running high, and it doesn’t look like that’ll change any time soon. The Bank of England’s chief economist even admitted that inflation could hit 5% next year.

With this in mind, mortgage providers may soon begin to cut back on ultra-cheap deals, given the rate at which the UK’s currency is losing its value. And more expensive mortgages can lead to lower house prices.

3. Interest rates will almost certainly rise

On a similar note, the Bank of England will be under increasing pressure to increase its base rate next year. If the rate goes up, this will make borrowing more expensive for mortgage lenders. This will likely result in them raising their own mortgage rates, which may calm rising house prices.

4. Government support may taper off

The government has a number of schemes to ‘support’ the housing market. Yet many of these schemes, such as the 95% mortgage guarantee scheme, simply increase the number of people able to afford a home. As a result, such schemes increase demand, which increases house prices.

With no new policies announced for 2022, less government intervention may lead to lower house prices next year.

What would a house price crash mean for existing homeowners?

While any house price crash will be welcome news for first-time buyers, such an occurrence would technically make existing homeowners poorer.

Despite this, a house price crash would only impact existing homeowners in the real world if they plan to release equity in their homes in the near future, own more than one property or want to downsize.

For those simply living in their house, any loss will only be suffered on paper. In fact, for those keen to move to a more expensive property, a crash could actually be good news. That’s because the prices of more expensive properties are likely to fall by a greater amount than their existing home.

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: ‘Grandma and grandpa aren’t going to figure this one out.’ Prescription-drug savings vanish in the Medicare shuffle

For Medicare patients struggling to afford the Biogen
BIIB,
-0.47%

multiple sclerosis drug Tecfidera, the arrival last year of far cheaper generic competitors should have been great news. Instead, it has become a cautionary tale about the Medicare prescription-drug benefit’s complexities proving costly to patients and taxpayers, drug-pricing researchers say.

Looking at Medicare prescription-drug plans offering any coverage of Tecfidera or its generic equivalent as of the third quarter of this year, drug-pricing research nonprofit 46brooklyn Research found that more than half of enrollees had access only to the brand-name drug—despite the fact that multiple lower-cost generic options have been available for about a year. Even when plans did cover the generic, the cost was generally far higher than the cheapest generic’s list price, the researchers found.

“It’s a series of broken incentives that lead to this type of outcome,” says 46brooklyn CEO Antonio Ciaccia, including issues with “rebates,” or discounts that drugmakers often pay to Part D plan sponsors and other middlemen after a drug is dispensed.

“Just having generics in the market doesn’t mean that people can get them, or that they are affordable,” says Bari Talente, executive vice president of advocacy and healthcare access for the National Multiple Sclerosis Society. The group has heard from patients and healthcare providers about challenges with Tecfidera and generic access that echo 46brooklyn’s findings, Talente says.

The research adds to a growing number of studies illustrating how generic competition for pricey specialty drugs, when filtered through the convoluted Medicare Part D prescription-drug system, can fail to generate cost savings for patients.

The findings come as Congress weighs prescription-drug pricing and Medicare Part D reforms as part of the Build Back Better social spending bill. President Joe Biden highlighted the issue in a speech this week, noting that the bill would cap Medicare beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket prescription-drug costs at $2,000 per year, among other changes.  

For many Medicare patients, it was as if the price war never happened

Broadly speaking, most Part D plans are designed to favor the use of generics over brand-name drugs, according to a 2020 study published in Health Affairs. Looking at the plans’ coverage of brand names versus generic equivalents, the researchers found that the plans had generic-only coverage in more than 80% of cases. But “there are obviously some major exceptions to this rule,” says Stacie Dusetzina, associate professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and co-author of the study, including some cases involving costly specialty drugs. The exceptions “are very important because the effect on consumers is so negative,” she says. “The idea that you can’t access these low-cost drugs and pay less is incredibly frustrating.”

After the first generic version of Tecfidera launched in August of last year, the competition was fast and furious. Within a few months, 11 manufacturers were making the drug, driving the median monthly generic wholesale acquisition cost for the 240 milligram capsules down to about $900—a roughly 90% discount to the Tecfidera list price of $8,276, according to 46brooklyn.

Tecfidera sales stumbled. The brand-name product was Biogen’s top-selling drug in 2019, with about $4.4 billion in sales. The company sold about $1.5 billion worth of the drug in the first nine months of this year. Late last month, a federal appeals court rejected Biogen’s effort to revive a key patent on Tecfidera.

“The idea that you can’t access these low-cost drugs and pay less is incredibly frustrating”


— Stacie Dusetzina, associate professor at Vanderbilt University Medical Center

For many Medicare patients, it was as if the price war never happened. Despite their bargaining power, the largest Part D plans generally gave enrollees a worse deal on the drug than their smaller counterparts, the 46brooklyn study found. The largest plans tended to offer brand-name-only coverage, according to the study, whereas smaller plans were more likely to cover both the brand name and generic or only the generic. And looking at Part D plans’ lowest negotiated price for any version of the drug—brand or generic—the researchers found that large plans’ prices were often even higher than Tecfidera’s list price, whereas the smallest plans had some of the lowest negotiated prices.

“The largest plans have greater resources, sophistication and leverage” to offer consumers the lowest-cost options, 46brooklyn’s Ciaccia says, yet “we found it was the exact opposite of that.”  

Four large companies—Humana
HUM,
+0.72%
,
CVS
CVS,
+0.83%
,
Centene
CNC,
+5.62%

and Anthem
ANTM,
+0.96%

—offer Medicare plans with brand-name-only Tecfidera coverage, collectively covering more than 23 million people, according to 46brooklyn. Humana, CVS and Centene did not respond to requests for comment. Anthem referred questions to the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association, a trade group for pharmacy benefit managers, which handle prescription-drug benefits on behalf of Part D plans and other payers. That group said in a statement, “On behalf of patients, PBMs support achieving the lowest net price for prescription drugs, whether it is through use of a generic, an authorized generic, or a brand drug.”  

In some cases, a single parent company owns a large health plan, a specialty pharmacy and a pharmacy benefit manager, creating potential conflicts of interest that may interfere with consumers getting the best price, researchers say. More transparency is needed “to understand how the dollars are flowing,” Dusetzina says. Where plans, PBMs, and pharmacies are all part of the same parent company, she says, “we’ve created a system that could keep rewarding itself by not negotiating as much as they can and not trying to get the best price for the Medicare program.”

Some provisions of the Build Back Better bill may help smooth out Part D’s quirks

Kristine Grow, a spokesperson for the health plan trade group AHIP, said the number of generic medications prescribed to seniors has climbed sharply since the introduction of Medicare Part D, “delivering significant savings to enrollees and taxpayers.” The problem, she said, is the drug prices set by the pharmaceutical industry. The 46brooklyn report, she says, “is based on a bogus premise.” PBMs pass rebates through to Medicare plans, “which use those savings to lower premiums and offset other health care costs for seniors,” she says.

But Michael Bagel, director of public policy for the Alliance of Community Health Plans, a trade group for nonprofit plans, says his group supports transparency requirements that would shine more light on price-setting issues. Many of the questions raised by the 46brooklyn report are “because of the lack of sunshine into the pricing process and into what discounts and rebates are being passed on,” he says.

Some provisions of the Build Back Better bill may help smooth out Part D quirks that can favor brands over generics, researchers say. The bill would eliminate the “coverage gap,” a phase of the Part D benefit in which manufacturers provide a 70% discount on brand-name drugs—but not generics. Those brand-name discounts count toward patients’ out-of-pocket spending, which can help them reach the more generous catastrophic coverage phase faster than they would with a generic. That can lead to some counterintuitive outcomes for patients. In the first three years of generic competition for the cancer drug Gleevec, for example, Medicare patients saw their out-of-pocket costs climb if they switched from the brand-name drug to the generic, according to a 2020 study by Dusetzina and her coauthors.

The bill would also increase Part D plans’ responsibility for costs in the catastrophic coverage phase to 60%, up from 15% today.

But much remains to be done, researchers say, to make the system more navigable for consumers who just want to find the most affordable way to fill their prescriptions. “This is a four-month research project that we did,” Ciaccia says of the Tecfidera study, “and we’re drug-pricing nerds. Grandma and grandpa aren’t going to figure this one out. It shouldn’t be this complex.”

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