2 inflation-beating FTSE 100 dividend stocks to buy

This morning we got the latest inflation figure for November. At 5.1%, it’s the highest figure in over a decade and one that I need to pay attention to. Why? The value of my spare cash is being eroded due to this rising price level. One way I can look to beat inflation is via investing in FTSE 100 dividend stocks, with yields above 5.1%. Here are two that I like at the moment.

A steady dividend payer

The first dividend stock I like is Legal & General (LSE:LGEN). The share currently offers a dividend yield of 6.17%, with the share price having risen 16% over the past year. 

5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50

Markets around the world are reeling from the coronavirus pandemic… and with so many great companies trading at what look to be ‘discount-bin’ prices, now could be the time for savvy investors to snap up some potential bargains.

But whether you’re a newbie investor or a seasoned pro, deciding which stocks to add to your shopping list can be a daunting prospect during such unprecedented times.

Fortunately, The Motley Fool UK analyst team have short-listed five companies that they believe STILL boast significant long-term growth prospects despite the global upheaval…

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The company focuses on investment management along with retirement products such as annuities and pensions. I would say this is a fairly low risk business model.  Once you’ve reached scale and have a reasonable amount of assets under management, fees and commissions keep ticking over.

In the H1 results, operating profit was up 14% from the same period last year. More importantly, this growth was seen across different business areas. This allowed the earnings per share to increase by 21%, with some of the overall earnings distributed as dividends.

Looking forward, not only can the dividend yield help me to beat inflation, but I think it’s a sustainable stock for the future. The company has a robust dividend policy and has paid out some form of income for the last decade.

As a risk, I could be hit with a double whammy if we see a stock market crash. Not only could the share take a hit, but the funds managed by Legal & General could also fall. This could compound the share price slump of this dividend stock.

A mining stock to consider

The second dividend stock I’m thinking about buying is Anglo American (LSE:AAL). It offers me a similar yield to LGEN, at 6.34%. Over the past year, the share price has risen by an impressive 20%. 

There were concerns earlier this year regarding the company, with regards to the iron ore mined. With concerns around a slowdown in China (a huge iron ore consumer due to steel production), iron ore demand fell. Although prices have rebounded back above $100/T in recent weeks, this remains the big risk I see for the stock in 2022.

Aside from this risk, I think the company can perform well in other areas. For example, copper. The Quellaveco copper project in Peru is expected to be a big focus for the business. I should also note, in contrast to iron ore, the copper price is up around 18% over the past year. 

I’m aware that this is a more volatile dividend stock than others, but it does have a generous yield that’ll allow me to beat inflation at current levels. I can accept that I’ll be taking on some added risk.

Overall, I’m considering buying both dividend stocks now to act as a way to counterbalance high UK inflation.

Inflation Is Coming: 3 Shares To Try And Hedge Against Rising Prices

Make no mistake… inflation is coming.

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That’s why we’ve put together a brand-new special report that uncovers 3 of our top UK and US share ideas to try and best hedge against inflation…

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Jon Smith and The Motley Fool UK have no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

1 unstoppable UK stock to buy with £1,000 in 2022

These might not be the best times for many companies, what with the pandemic dragging on, but some are certainly going from strength to strength. One of them is the AIM-listed UK stock K3 Capital (LSE: K3C), which has shown an impressive increase in its financials over the years. 

What does K3 capital do

The company provides advisory services to small and medium-sized enterprises under three heads. The first of these is mergers and acquisitions, which includes services like company sales and corporate finance services. The next is tax advisory, which includes all kinds of services related to taxation including tax credit claims and tax investigations-related works. And then there is its restructuring advisory, which provides insolvency and restructuring-related advice, analysis of business performance, and forensic accounting services. 

5 Stocks For Trying To Build Wealth After 50

Markets around the world are reeling from the coronavirus pandemic… and with so many great companies trading at what look to be ‘discount-bin’ prices, now could be the time for savvy investors to snap up some potential bargains.

But whether you’re a newbie investor or a seasoned pro, deciding which stocks to add to your shopping list can be a daunting prospect during such unprecedented times.

Fortunately, The Motley Fool UK analyst team have short-listed five companies that they believe STILL boast significant long-term growth prospects despite the global upheaval…

We’re sharing the names in a special FREE investing report that you can download today. And if you’re 50 or over, we believe these stocks could be a great fit for any well-diversified portfolio.

Click here to claim your free copy now!

Growth across segments for the UK stock

In its recent trading update, K3 Capital said that all business divisions have performed well in the six months ending 30 November 2021. It now expects that revenue for this half-year to have almost doubled from the year before. An increase in profits is also expected. As per CEO John Rigby, the board “is confident in the prospects of the Group for the remainder of FY22 and beyond”. 

The company expects growth through both the organic route as well as through acquisitions. In fact, the past six months’ performance reflects two recent acquisitions that took place in July 2021. Clearly, the company is doing a whole lot right, considering that between 2018 and 2021, its revenues have increased by three times. 

Downside to the AIM stock

Its share price has also risen by a healthy 46% in the past year. However, not all is hunky-dory. Its over the years, its share price has fluctuated a fair bit. And its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is also pretty steep at 46 times. I guess this is partly because it has performed quite well recently. Still, considering the uncertain times we are living in, I do think that this is a very high for a relatively small firm. It has a market capitalisation of £275m, which is certainly not among the smallest, but it is a far cry from big FTSE 100 companies. And this industry segment could suffer if the recovery continues to be muted because of the Omicron variant. 

What I’d do now

Keeping this in mind, I will not buy the AIM stock right away. I will wait for the whole Covid-19 situation to play out over the next month or so. This will give me a better assessment of how things might look for it in 2022. If they do continue looking bright, I would very much like to invest £1,000 in the stock next year. If they falter, however, I will keep it on my investing watchlist, and buy the UK stock when the time looks right. In the meantime, I will focus on more predictable stocks. 

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Manika Premsingh has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

The Wall Street Journal: Covid is disrupting sports again, this time with teamwide outbreaks

The richest professional sports leagues in the world spent enormous sums of money and took extraordinary measures to play through the pandemic in 2020. They bubbled, tested, and traced their way to make it to 2021, when there was more optimism about a return to something that resembled normalcy. 

But the past week in sports has been a blunt reminder that the virus is still a problem for sports. And the issues in recent days foreshadow more disruptions and stricter measures to thwart rising caseloads. 

NBA stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden were among the dozens sidelined by the league’s health and safety protocols this week, absences that threaten to spoil the marquee Christmas Day schedule next week, while the league already postponed its first games of the season in response to a teamwide outbreak on the Chicago Bulls.

The English Premier League reintroduced what it called “emergency measures” as giants Manchester United
MANU,
-1.90%

 and Tottenham Hotspur had games postponed and their training facilities shuttered because of outbreaks. The Calgary Flames became the third NHL team to have their season paused because of an outbreak.

An expanded version of this story appears on WSJ.com.

Popular stories from WSJ.com:

: SEC proposes tightening rules on insider trading, stock buybacks

The Securities and Exchange Commission voted unanimously Wednesday to propose new rules that would encourage company insiders to institute a “cooling off” period before executing trades in their company’s stock under a framework that gives them protection from insider trading liability.

Under current rules, company insiders are given a safe harbor to protect against accusations of insider trading if they buy and sell their company’s stock through predetermined plans, executed by a third party and set up at a time when the individual isn’t aware of material non-public information.

The proposal would institute a 120-day cooling off period before trades can commence under such plans for individuals, and would require companies themselves to wait 30 days before executing trades in a stock buyback program.

Further, the new rule would restrict company officers from instituting overlapping trading plans that could enable them to skirt the rules prohibiting the use of inside information when buying and selling shares.

“These issues speak to the confidence that investors have in the markets,” SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, a Democrat, said when voting to propose the rules at a virtual meeting of the commission Wednesday. “Anytime we can increase investor confidence in the markets, that’s a good thing.”

The SEC’s two Republican commissioners, Hester Peirce and Elad Roisman, voted to propose the rule, but expressed reservations about some of the details, including the requirement that companies themselves wait 30 days before engaging in share buybacks.

Companies “must make determinations about whether share repurchases are appropriate, and if so, how many shares to buy, and at what price, based on current information about how much cash the company has and what its anticipated uses for it are,” Roisman said. “Our cooling off period is more burdensome for an issuer than for an individual, because we’ll make these considerations much more uncertain.”

The SEC also voted 3-2, along party lines, to propose rules requiring companies to report information on share buybacks, including the price and number of shares bought, by the close of business the day after those transactions took place.

Democrats on the SEC supported the rule, pointing to potential for companies to engage in buybacks in order to influence metrics like earnings-per-share, which can affect executive compensation. The agency’s two Republicans warned that the disclosures would prevent companies from engaging in buybacks, to the detriment of shareholders.

“Other countries, such as Australia and the United Kingdom, have long required more timely share buyback disclosures next day,” Gensler said. “I believe freshening up our own share buyback disclosures would help the U.S. capital markets remain the most competitive in the world.”

Goldman Sachs
GS,
-0.84%

analysts predicted in October that S&P 500
SPX,
-0.42%

companies will repurchase $808 billion in stock in 2021 and $872 billion in 2022, and will rank as the single largest use of company cash this year and next, ahead of capital expenditures, research and development, acquisitions and dividends.

The public will have 45 days to comment on the proposed rule changes, after which the SEC will amend the rule to take those comments into account and vote on whether to implement the new regulations.

NFC Payments: How to Accept These Secure Transactions at Your Business

NFC payments are contactless payments that use near-field communication technology, allowing devices like a mobile phone and a payment terminal to communicate securely with each other. This technology powers mobile wallet payments such as Apple Pay, Google Pay and Samsung Pay and payment cards that you can tap to pay. To accept NFC payments, you need an NFC-enabled card reader.

For small businesses, NFC payments are easy to set up and can provide a quick in-store checkout experience.

How do NFC payments work?

NFC technology enables two devices to transmit information to each other using radio frequency. For NFC payments to work, the two devices communicating with each other need to be placed very close together, mere centimeters apart.

Other scenarios where radio frequency is used to exchange data include hotel room keycards and public transit fare cards. The difference is that NFC is a newer, more secure form of existing radio frequency technology.

An NFC-enabled phone and payment reader contain chips that facilitate the secure exchange of data. A transaction is initiated when the user unlocks a digital wallet app, chooses a card to pay with and places the phone close to the payment reader. A chip called the “secure element” then authorizes and validates the transaction and assigns it a unique digital signature. Once this step is complete, the payment is processed like a typical card transaction.

How secure are NFC payments?

NFC payments are considered secure because data passing between the two devices is encrypted. The security protocol followed by NFC technology is the same one used by chip-enabled payment cards, making it more secure than swiping your card at a terminal.

NFC technology makes it hard for a potential thief to steal any useful information in three ways:

  1. Transaction data like the customer’s name and card information are encrypted.

  2. The distance between devices in an NFC payment is very small, making it hard to intercept from afar.

  3. Most mobile wallets require the customer to take an additional security step of entering their passcode or placing their fingerprint to initiate payment.

Like any payment system, though, NFC technology may still be vulnerable to sophisticated attacks directed at the customer’s mobile device or at flaws in a point-of-sale system.

As a small-business owner, you can do your part by always ensuring your device software is up to date and your entire payment processing setup is PCI compliant.

How to accept NFC payments at your small business

Check with your merchant account provider or payment service provider to see if your devices are NFC-enabled or if you can update them to accept NFC payments. The rates for doing so should be similar to accepting other types of card-present transactions; your existing payment processing plan will determine your costs.

Crypto: Bitcoin trades sideways ahead of Fed decision

Bitcoin is trading sideways as investors await the outcome of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting Wednesday afternoon.

The central bank, which will release a policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern followed by Chairman Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m., is expected to announce a faster tapering of its bond purchase program. That, in turn, could set the stage for interest rate increases to begin as early as the second quarter of next year.  

Read: It’s Fed day. Here are two big questions for markets from a trading veteran.

Bitcoin
BTCUSD,
-3.11%

was recently trading at around $46,970, down 0.02% over the past 24 hours. Ether
ETHUSD,
-4.21%

went down 2.55% over the past 24 hours, recently trading at around $3,688.

Facing macroeconomic uncertainties, bitcoin has fallen more than 30% from its all-time high of $68,991 in November. Ether is down more than 20% from its record high of $4,865.6.

“As bitcoin and the crypto market continues to mature and institutionalize, Fed regimes and macro events can have a greater impact on near term price discovery,” Louis LaValle, managing director at crypto fund manager 3iQ Digital Assets told MarketWatch via email. 

See: 5 things to watch for when the Federal Reserve announces its policy decision Wednesday

If the Fed turns less hawkish than the market expected, major cryptocurrencies might rally, according to LaValle. “We’ve been in a risk-off environment in bitcoin and the crypto asset broadly over the last month, so if the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting doesn’t make blockbuster headlines that could be a buying opportunity for those on the sidelines.”

Also read: Uncomfortable question looming for the Fed: How much added unemployment will be needed to cool inflation down?

“The Fed also is aware of its influence on markets,” LaValle wrote. “Previous attempts at reducing the balance sheet did not end so well – remember that they threw in the towel on rate hikes back in 2019.”

Read more: The crypto market is uneasy about the Fed meeting and high inflation. Here’s why

Subscribe to MarketWatch’s weekly crypto newsletter Distributed Ledger.

Chase Announces 5% Bonus Categories for Q1 2022: Grocery Stores, eBay

It’s never too early to get started on your #newyearnewme goals. And ahead of the new year, Chase has unveiled its 5% bonus categories for the first quarter of 2022.

From Jan. 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022, holders of the Chase Freedom Flex℠ and the Chase Freedom® can earn 5% back on up to $1,500 in combined quarterly spending in the following categories:

  • Grocery stores (excluding Target® and Walmart® purchases).

You’ll have to activate your bonus categories online by March 14 to earn bonus cash back, which can be earned retroactively.

Nerdy tip: The Chase Freedom® is closed to new applicants. But if you hold this legacy card, you’ll earn 5% on these bonus categories once you activate them, just like with the Chase Freedom Flex℠.

Chase Freedom® and Chase Freedom Flex℠ bonus rewards categories for 2022

Q1 (Jan. 1-March 31)

• Grocery stores.
• eBay.

Q2 (Apr. 1-June 30)

Q3 (July 1–Sept. 30)

Q4 (Oct. 1–Dec. 31)

Although “grocery stores” has been featured by the issuer in 2021 and in years prior, eBay is a notably new bonus category. And while the latter may not be an everyday spend category for most, if you’re an avid shopper on the e-commerce site, you can rack in serious rewards in the first quarter of 2022.

Note that the $0-annual-fee Chase Freedom Flex℠ currently offers the following sign-up bonus: Earn a $200 Bonus after you spend $500 on purchases in your first 3 months from account opening. And earn 5% cash back on grocery store purchases (not including Target® or Walmart® purchases) on up to $12,000 spent in the first year.

The 5% back on groceries you’ll get in the first year can stack with this quarterly bonus. This means that those who are in their first year of cardholding in Q1 2022 and who haven’t yet reached the spending cap, can earn 9% cash back on grocery store purchases — (4% from the rotating bonus category plus 4% back from the card’s first-year bonus plus 1% base earn, which can be earned once per purchase only).

In addition to rotating bonus categories each quarter, the Chase Freedom® earns 1% back on all purchases. The Chase Freedom Flex℠ earns the following:

  • 3% back at restaurants, including takeout and eligible delivery services.

  • 3% back at drugstores purchases.

  • 1% back on all other purchases.

The information related to the Chase Freedom® credit card has been collected by NerdWallet and has not been reviewed or provided by the issuer of this card. The Chase Freedom® is no longer available through NerdWallet.

MemeMoney: Suddenly embattled AMC Entertainment CEO Adam Aron tells investors they oughta see the other guy

It’s impossible to argue that AMC Entertainment
AMC,
-7.27%

hasn’t had a rather incredible 2021 as the company’s stock is up over 730% despite a global pandemic ravaging its business model.

But some of that “mother meme stock” magic has worn off as the year comes to a close with AMC is facing a resurgent pandemic in the form of delta and omicron variants, a stock price that has fallen about 60% in the second half of the year, and now Ortex data shows that short interest on AMC has climbed back above 20% for the first time since early October.


Ortex

In addition to Covid, and rising inflation that impacts consumer behavior like splashing out on a trip to the movies, AMC is also contending with some discontent related to Aron’s cashing out on his insider shares in recent weeks, a decision that he has been transparent about with his retail investor base but has also reaped him a more than $50 million windfall and angered AMC “Apes” who aren’t just holding their shares but putting them into direct registration systems in order to protect them from the shorts.

Aron — who has cultivated Reddit’s Ape army of AMC loyalists via his very active Twitter account and corporate initiatives like AMC Investor Connect which provides retail investors HODLing AMC shares with access to the C-suite, NFTs, and free popcorn — now finds himself in something a pickle with the year winding down and a base that is turning on him a bit just as the Christmas blockbuster season looks to be deeply threatened by exploding Covid infection rates.

So late Tuesday night, Aron took to Twitter to try a new tactic: telling AMC investors that the competition is in even worse shape…

Cineworld
CNNWF,
-40.19%

stock has indeed been impacted by the news of its legal loss, but that 38% drop Wednesday morning took the shares from just over 60 cents to the mid-30 cent range.

Pointing out that your “biggest competitor brings opportunity to AMC,” might be true, but pointing out that your biggest competitor is trading as an injured penny stock while you’re pushing a stock in the mid $20 range is — as AMC’s fans on social media would say — “a real mood.”

Score Perks on These 16 Airlines as an AAdvantage Elite Status Holder

If you’re an American Airlines AAdvantage elite member, you’re hopefully well aware of the elite benefits you get when flying American. But you may not know there are 16 other airlines with which AAdvantage elite status holders get benefits.

Over the past few years, American has been aggressive about adding and enhancing partnerships. AAdvantage members can now get first-class upgrades on Alaska, free checked bags on JetBlue and bonus miles when flying intra-Brazil — and those aren’t the only airlines you can get AAdvantage perks with.

Take a look at all of the airlines that AAdvantage elites can benefit from flying, plus which perks you’ll get on each airline.

Oneworld and Oneworld Connect airlines

As American is a member of the Oneworld alliance, AAdvantage elite members enjoy benefits when flying on any other Oneworld airline. The benefits depend on your AAdvantage elite status tier — Gold, Platinum, Platinum Pro or Executive Platinum — and sometimes the airline you’re flying.

Benefits when flying Oneworld airlines, broken down by tier

Perks vary based on your elite status level. As you move up the status tiers, you can expect to earn the same perks as the lower tiers, plus additional perks.

AAdvantage Gold members get Oneworld Ruby privileges:

  • Access to business class check-in.

  • Preferred or pre-reserved seating.

  • Priority on waitlists and when on standby.

AAdvantage Platinum elites get Oneworld Sapphire benefits:

  • Access to business class lounges.

  • Priority boarding.

  • Extra baggage allowance — guaranteeing at least one checked bag of up to 23 kg (50 lbs).

  • Priority baggage handling.

  • Ruby benefits.

AAdvantage Platinum Pro and Executive Platinum members get Oneworld Emerald perks:

  • Access to first and business class lounges.

  • Access to first class priority check-in.

  • Fast track at select security lanes.

  • Priority baggage handling.

  • Extra baggage allowance.

  • Priority boarding.

  • Priority on waitlists and when on standby.

  • Access to preferred or pre-reserved seating.

  • Ruby and Sapphire benefits.

Exceptions

Unfortunately, not all Oneworld airlines provide all of the guaranteed Oneworld elite benefits.

  • British Airways’ version of basic economy, bluntly called “hand baggage only” fares, implies that you won’t be able to check baggage when booking this fare — even if you have Oneworld elite status. So be prepared to pay for your checked bags. In addition, British Airways doesn’t provide priority baggage handling privileges to Oneworld elites.

  • Qatar Airways’ Doha hub offers some of the most spectacular business and first class lounges in the world. Unfortunately, Oneworld elites don’t get access to these. Instead, Qatar provides separate lounges for Oneworld elite members.

Additional benefits on Alaska Airlines

Alaska Airlines joined the Oneworld alliance on March 31, 2021, guaranteeing AAdvantage elites certain benefits when flying on Alaska. In addition to the Oneworld benefits, AAdvantage elites get a few extra, like:

  • Free checked bags: When flying on Alaska, all AAdvantage elites are guaranteed at least two free checked bags. That’s much better than the one-piece allowance guaranteed through the Oneworld partnership. AAdvantage Gold and Platinum members get two free checked bags, and Platinum Pro and Executive Platinum elites get three free checked bags.

  • Upgrades to Premium Class: Alaska’s equivalent of Main Cabin Extra is called Premium Class. AAdvantage elites get complimentary space-available upgrades to these seats when booking any fare but Saver — Alaska’s basic economy ticket. The timing of the upgrade depends on your elite status tier and fare booking class.

Mileage earnings when flying Oneworld airlines

AAdvantage members flying on other airlines can still earn AAdvantage miles and elite status credits based on the distance flown and the airfare booking class. American Airlines spells out the rates at which you earn these credits in earning charts.

In addition to these base earning rates, AAdvantage members can get elite mileage bonuses when flying on most Oneworld airlines at these rates. Only S7 Airlines and SriLankan Airlines are excluded.

  • 40% for AAdvantage Gold.

  • 60% for AAdvantage Platinum.

  • 80% for AAdvantage Platinum Pro.

  • 120% for AAdvantage Executive Platinum.

JetBlue Airlines

In July 2020, American and JetBlue announced a new partnership that they’ve since dubbed the Northeast Alliance. This partnership has developed relatively slowly, but finally now includes several reciprocal elite benefits and mileage earnings.

AAdvantage members earn miles on JetBlue flights similar to how they’re earned when flying American. Entry-level AAdvantage members will earn 5 miles per dollar spent; this number increases based on your status tier, up to 11 miles per dollar spent for Executive Platinum elite members.

In addition to earning bonus miles, AAdvantage elites get the following elite benefits when flying on JetBlue:

  • Priority check-in.

  • Priority security.

  • Priority boarding.

  • Priority bag delivery.

  • One free checked bag for AAdvantage Gold elites and two free checked bags for all other elites.

Note that the Northeast Alliance doesn’t cover JetBlue’s flights to London. So you will get these elite perks and mileage earnings only when flying to JetBlue’s destinations in the U.S., the Caribbean, Central America, Mexico and South America.

GOL Airlines

In February 2020, American Airlines launched a new code-share partnership with Brazil’s largest airline, GOL Airlines. AAdvantage members earn the same miles and elite credits on these GOL flights as if they were flying American. AAdvantage members can also earn miles when flying on GOL-marketed flights — including an elite status bonus for elite members.

In September 2021, American Airlines and GOL announced upcoming reciprocal elite status perks. Details are still thin. But in 2022, American Airlines AAdvantage members “will gain access to GOL’s elite benefits, such as priority check-in, priority security, priority boarding, a larger checked baggage allowance, lounge access and preferred seats,” according to a September news release on American Airlines’ website.

In addition, GOL and American plan to add an “enhanced joint loyalty offering to give customers more ways to earn and redeem miles.” Hopefully, this means the addition of award redemptions. However, for now, AAdvantage members enjoy elite status bonuses only when flying on GOL.

If you’re an AAdvantage elite flying on partner airlines

AAdvantage elites get benefits when flying on 16 partner airlines. The perks you’ll enjoy vary between airlines, so knowing the perks that you’re entitled to can help when deciding which airline to fly.

Perhaps you avoid booking British Airways’ “hand baggage only” fares and opt to fly transatlantic on American Airlines, Finnair or Iberia instead to use your elite free checked bag benefit. Or, when flying domestically, you’ll know to prioritize JetBlue and Alaska over other options thanks to the reciprocal elite perks you get on both.

Keep in mind that not all airline agents will be aware of all reciprocal elite perks, so you may need to gently inform agents who won’t let you use a stated benefit.

How to maximize your rewards

You want a travel credit card that prioritizes what’s important to you. Here are our picks for the best travel credit cards of 2021, including those best for:

Market Extra: Record-breaking or austere? What to expect from the municipal bond market in 2022

A continued “Golden Age of public finance” or a relatively sedate period of budget-minding?

Municipal bond market experts have different takes on what 2022 will bring, although there’s one constant: demand for the debt issued by state and local governments is likely to remain exceptionally strong.

“Big picture, the municipal market is fundamentally as strong as it’s been in a number of years,” said Paul Malloy, head of municipal investments at Vanguard.

“There was a significant amount of federal aid in 2021, tax receipts are up, market returns
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-0.28%

have been strong, and that’s aiding pension funds,” Malloy told MarketWatch. “The real question mark into 2022 is the level of interest rates and their impact.”

Malloy believes the federal aid doled out over the past two years in response to the COVID-19 pandemic will keep municipalities “flush with cash” and less likely to sell bonds in 2022. His forecast of $400 billion worth of new issuance would make 2022 one of the leanest years of the past decade. Through November of this year, $432 billion has been issued, according to SIFMA.

In contrast, Tom Kozlik, head of municipal research for Hilltop Securities, expects a record-breaking 2022, with $495 billion in issuance. Kozlik has deemed the current moment “a golden age of public finance” because of the possibilities for spending that have been opened up by federal largesse.

While there’s no precise way to predict how the municipal market — tens of thousands of state and local governments, transportation agencies, universities, and more across the country — will behave, it’s worth noting that several sources who spoke with MarketWatch in November universally appreciated the fact that federal aid would allow them to avoid the expense — and administrative headache — of issuing bonds.

One thing is certain: relatively lean supply will continue to support bond prices. Eric Kazatsky, head of municipal strategy for Bloomberg Intelligence, reckons that the market could support $475 billion of issuance.

That will continue a stretch of outsize demand. Throughout 2021, multiple weeks in a row have seen inflows to municipal-bond funds smash records. A closely-watched metric, the ratio of 10-year muni yields to those of comparable U.S. Treasurys,
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.442%

was at about 64% at the end of November, according to IHS Markit data, below the long-term average of about 80%, and suggesting investors have been willing to pay more for the tax advantages munis bring.

That’s Kazatsky’s premise for 2022: “buyers of municipals will still be motivated by tax avoidance, absent a large individual tax cut,” he wrote in an outlook piece, “while the bonds’ low correlation to other asset classes could prove their ‘safer’-haven status should the economy struggle in an era of rising rates.”

The question of how the economy might do – whether in the face of monetary policy normalization or just the tail end of the global pandemic – also sets up some differences among muni experts on just how to invest.

Vanguard’s Malloy thinks there are pockets of value in areas that “haven’t completely come back from the pandemic,” including higher education and some student housing deals. But others are more wary: Kozlik has a cautious to negative view on higher education, noting that “college campuses are not as safe as we expected from virus spread.”

And despite the fact that municipalities are in strong shape now, Kazatsky writes that he continues to favor bonds “with identifiable revenue streams vs. stand-alone general-obligation pledges” – that is, those backed by taxes. What’s more, he added, if stocks pull back or interest rates spike, it could exacerbate legacy fixed costs for those governments, such as public pensions.

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