Cable companies continue to bleed video subscribers and just saw what collectively could have been their worst year yet when it comes to cord cutting.
Total pay-TV subscribers in the U.S. fell by 5.18 million in 2022, according to calculations by Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall, with sharp declines in linear subscribers vastly outweighing momentum for virtual services that offer access to live programming, like Alphabet Inc.’s
GOOG,
GOOGL,
YouTube TV.
Linear-television subscribers declined by 6.48 million this year, by Cahall’s count, making for a steeper drop than the 6.27 million in subscriber losses seen in 2021. Comcast Corp.
CMCSA,
Charter Communications Inc.
CHTR,
DirecTV and Dish Network Corp.
DISH,
were among those traditional providers that continued to see steep declines on the year.
See also: Why Comcast’s drab internet performance is actually the ‘sweet spot’
“We think linear sub declines worsened due to some combo of more streaming options/streaming awareness, a challenged macro environment and/or a tougher broadband outlook at cable companies (which continue to offer bundled discounts for internet + video),” Cahall wrote in a note to clients. “We expect these to persist and hence we don’t expect an improvement in the linear trends.”
Cahall predicts that overall pay-TV subscribers could fall by 7% in 2023 after declining about 6% in 2022. He takes into account the potential for slight improvement in linear losses but slower subscriber growth for virtual multichannel video programming distributors (vMVPDs) like YouTube TV, which serve as an offset.
“This is largely in Media models, but remains a persistent threat,” he wrote.
