U.S. Treasury yields on Tuesday rose across the board, with government debt being sold and equities bought again, a day after global stock markets sold off and the three main U.S. equity indexes posted their third day of decline.
The downbeat mood ahead of the Christmas holiday, which has helped to support bond buying, has been attributed to the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 and was identified less than a month ago but has been discovered in 89 nations, becoming the dominant U.S. strain.
What are yields doing?
-
The 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.456%
yields 1.453%, up from 1.418% at 3 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday. -
The rate for the 30-year Treasury
TMUBMUSD30Y,
1.888% ,
known as the long bond, was at 1.882%, advancing from 1.847%, a day ago. -
The 2-year Treasury note yield
TMUBMUSD02Y,
0.662%
was at 0.646%, compared with 0.628% on Monday.
What’s driving the market?
Concerns about the economic impact of the omicron variant and inflation have dictated the moves for financial markets and government debt in recent trading.
Lighter-than-usual trading volumes, with Treasury markets closed early an hour early on Thursday and remaining closed on Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday, are likely to be a feature of the trading action as investors assess the balance of risks in trading the final two weeks of 2021.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Monday that omicron has caused more than 70% of recent COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and the strain has spread to dozens of nations since being first identified in the souther part of Africa in late November.
Preliminary data suggests that the current batch of vaccines and remedies provide some protection against the variant but much remains unknown. President Biden is scheduled to deliver a speech on COVID later Tuesday.
That said, yields have been mostly holding lower due to uncertainty about the economic implications of a lengthier battle with the pandemic and the impact on inflation which has been surging. The Federal Reserve has signaled that it intends to raise interest rates in 2022 to slow rising inflation but analysts are concerned that the central bank may be making an error in its policy, which could lead to a recession. Buying in Treasurys, keeping yields anchored, has been at least partly underpinned by this fear.
President Joe Biden’s struggles getting key support for the Democrats nearly $2 trillion Build Back Better bill, also contributed to sentiment on Monday.
Later Tuesday, investors will be watching for a sale of 20-year Treasurys
TMUBMUSD20Y,
at 1 p.m. ET., which could influence trading.
What are strategists saying?
“It’s the shortest day of the year in terms of daylight in the Northern Hemisphere and while we’re not anticipating this fact will define the trading session, we’ll offer a nod to the fact Monday was the first time the phrase ‘holiday trading conditions’ really felt appropriate,” wrote BMO Capital Markets rates strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery. “Volumes were suppressed and the in-range price action took on a decidedly choppy character as investors continue to grapple with the renewed uncertainties associated with the omicron variant, holiday shopping season, and the efforts of the Biden administration to push through its spending plan,” they wrote.
